NFL Playoffs?, Playoffs?!?!(that's not a catch, that's a catch)

[Admiral Yi]

Because if you get the ball first, you can only win the game with a touchdown. Starting with the second possession, a FG wins the game.

You can win with a FG if the other team then fails to make a FG.

[alfred russel]

Because if you get the ball first, you can only win the game with a touchdown. Starting with the second possession, a FG wins the game.

You can win with a FG if the other team then fails to make a FG.

Yes, but then until you get into FG range, the other team can play aggressively (less need to worry about turnovers) and with 4 downs. It is much harder to get a stop against a team in such a situation than it is in a normal situation.

It is why it is such an advantage to play defense first in the college overtime system even though both teams get the ball. That is mitigated in the NFL by giving the team with the ball first the chance to win outright with a TD, but the working assumption here is that the Jets were unlikely to do that.

[Admiral Yi]

You lost me Dorsey.  What allows the other team to play 4 down ball?

[MadBurgerMaker]

They lose if they punt?

[Admiral Yi]

Until the Pats get into FG range, the Jets lose if they punt?

[alfred russel]

You lost me Dorsey.  What allows the other team to play 4 down ball?

What MBM said. If the Jets got to 4th and 5 on their first possession in their own territory, they would punt.

If the Patriots knew they needed to score to keep the game going, obviously they wouldn't punt.

It is better to go second so you know what you need to do. Obviously assuming the team with the ball first doesn't score a TD and end the game. It is why almost 100% of the time, college teams that win the toss in overtime elect to play defense.

[derspiess]

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/112875/numbers-dont-back-up-patriots-ot-strategy

[MadBurgerMaker]

Until the Pats get into FG range, the Jets lose if they punt?

What?    The...Patriots lose if they punt after the Jets make a FG, which is why they are playing 4 down ball in the scenario.

[alfred russel]

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/112875/numbers-dont-back-up-patriots-ot-strategy

The problem with that post is that:

a) it doesn't run numbers beyond the generic case - ie the experience of who has won in overtime games.
b) it mentions that "nearly" the league average of points were scored in the game, ie, it wasn't 9-9, but the article fails to mention that the Patriots with 20 points got 7 of them on a defensive touchdown.

[MadBurgerMaker]

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/112875/numbers-dont-back-up-patriots-ot-strategy

Wait, hrm? 

Our latest win probability model estimates the recipient of the opening kickoff in overtime will win about 53.8 percent of the time, and setting aside ties, the kicking team will win about 46.2 percent of the time. Deliberately choosing to kick off without any overriding consideration would cost a team a 7.6 percent chance of winning.

The raw numbers since 2012 appear to support the advantage for the receiving team, although the sample size isn't big enough yet to be certain. Receiving teams have won 33 of the 65 overtime games that did not result in a tie, a 50.7 percent rate.

Can someone explain for me since I suck with this kind of stuff why they would ignore the 65 actual games and go with their probability model?  65 games over three years is not enough?

[Admiral Yi]

What MBM said. If the Jets got to 4th and 5 on their first possession in their own territory, they would punt.

If the Patriots knew they needed to score to keep the game going, obviously they wouldn't punt.

It is better to go second so you know what you need to do. Obviously assuming the team with the ball first doesn't score a TD and end the game. It is why almost 100% of the time, college teams that win the toss in overtime elect to play defense.

Pro game is completely different than the college game.  In college they just trade punches until someone gets hit in the nuts.  What you seem to be overlooking is in the pros the team with the first possession also gets the third possession, and can win on that possession with a FG.

[Admiral Yi]

What?    The...Patriots lose if they punt after the Jets make a FG, which is why they are playing 4 down ball in the scenario.

It wasn't clear from Dorsey's original post who had the range and who had 4 downs.

[MadBurgerMaker]

Yi, in the NFL each team gets one possession unless there is a TD on the opening drive.  If Team A doesn't make a FG or score a TD and punts on their opening possession, Team B can win it with a FG (like college). 

E: 

It wasn't clear from Dorsey's original post who had the range and who had 4 downs.

He was responding to a post from you about winning with a FG if the other team fails to make it on the following possession.  There'd be no reason to bother with 4 down football in risky situations if you could just punt it away and play D.

[alfred russel]

Pro game is completely different than the college game.  In college they just trade punches until someone gets hit in the nuts.  What you seem to be overlooking is the team with the first possession also gets the third possession, and can win on that possession with a FG.

Yep, the analysis can get complex. If you use the article that Derspeiss linked, ESPN estimates that the team with the ball first should win 53.8% of games in an average game, and in practice have won 50.7% of games won or lost in overtime under current rules.

In a defensive game, the numbers get weighted more to the kicking team. For example, if most possessions are resulting in a 3 and out, the kicking team should get good starting field position when they get the ball.

I'm sure some math nerds will crunch the numbers on this and it will probably come up to be very close to 50% whether the Patriots should have kicked or received. Not sure which side will be ahead, maybe different analysis will differ, but it probably wasn't the dumbest decision made on Sunday, if it was even dumb to begin with.

[Admiral Yi]

Yi, in the NFL each team gets one possession unless there is a TD on the opening drive.

This is not true.  I thought maybe I had been spacing out on the rule, so I googled.

"However, if the team that receives the opening kickoff only gets a field goal, the other team gets one possession of its own. If they score a touchdown, they win. If they don't score, they lose. If they also kick a field goal, the overtime continues in sudden-death format."  From SB*Nation.