Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[HVC]

In a one-two punch warmer water holds less co2. So as the ocean warms more co2 gets into the atmosphere. But I guess as a bonus it reduces ocean acidification.

[Maladict]

It would make for a good mystery for future alien visitors. Finding a civilization that was close to being able to launch itself into space, but knowingly asphyxiated itself instead.

[Admiral Yi]

And CO2 scrubbing technology.... Heavily fantasy level stuff, a black hole that sucks in money best spent on reduction and provides cover for polluters.

Is there any evidence that forms the basis of this assertion, or is this an exercise in pure narrative construction?

[Josquius]

And CO2 scrubbing technology.... Heavily fantasy level stuff, a black hole that sucks in money best spent on reduction and provides cover for polluters.

Is there any evidence that forms the basis of this assertion, or is this an exercise in pure narrative construction?

https://www.protocol.com/climate/carbon-dioxide-removal-cost-target

And this is a guy who is optimistic about its potential. I've heard scientists who haven't devoted their career to this stuff are far more scathing.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.protocol.com/climate/carbon-dioxide-removal-cost-target

And this is a guy who is optimistic about its potential. I've heard scientists who haven't devoted their career to this stuff are far more scathing.

Have you heard other scientists say this is a hopeful technology which needs more work to get the costs down?

[Syt]

It would make for a good mystery for future alien visitors. Finding a civilization that was close to being able to launch itself into space, but knowingly asphyxiated itself instead.

I think you can find planets like that in Stellaris IIRC.

[Sheilbh]

On positive signs - I'd expect this to be achieved every year from now on:


The key factor is China's transition.

[crazy canuck]

Yes, and if the hopeful part of that article comes true, and CO2 levels dramatically drop because alternative energy sources become used exclusively or even predominantly, then the concerns of ocean acidification, etc. also decrease.

The trouble there is that's CO2 emissions. Not levels.
CO2 takes a long time to cycle out of the atmosphere, hundreds of years- tangentially this is where the new focus on methane is great. It dissipates within a decade or so. They really need to stop that endless Turkmenistan leak.
I've seen some reckoning we could already be past the danger level on CO2 levels.
And CO2 scrubbing technology.... Heavily fantasy level stuff, a black hole that sucks in money best spent on reduction and provides cover for polluters.

Please read the link I posted.  If the projections are accurate the earth won't go over 2C of warming.

There will still be negative consequences but not the complete disaster of going past that point.

[crazy canuck]

And CO2 scrubbing technology.... Heavily fantasy level stuff, a black hole that sucks in money best spent on reduction and provides cover for polluters.

Is there any evidence that forms the basis of this assertion, or is this an exercise in pure narrative construction?

https://www.protocol.com/climate/carbon-dioxide-removal-cost-target

And this is a guy who is optimistic about its potential. I've heard scientists who haven't devoted their career to this stuff are far more scathing.

This article is about mechanical carbon capture.  That may indeed be a dead end.  Biological carbon capture will likely be the way forward.

[Maladict]

Please read the link I posted.  If the projections are accurate the earth won't go over 2C of warming.

There will still be negative consequences but not the complete disaster of going past that point.

Today's UN report says we're heading towards 3C.

[crazy canuck]

Please read the link I posted.  If the projections are accurate the earth won't go over 2C of warming.

There will still be negative consequences but not the complete disaster of going past that point.

Today's UN report says we're heading towards 3C.

Not quite.  It is consistent with the report to Congress I linked above.   The UN report says that if nothing changes we are heading toward 3C.   They put the chance of staying within 1.5C at 14% due to recent trends of moving toward greener sources of energy.  I forget the probability of staying within 2C but given recent trends there is still a good chance of staying within that limit.

[Sheilbh]

Really interesting Guardian series on emissions and inequality (in particular on the growing gap within countries rather than between countries):
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2023/nov/20/the-great-carbon-divide-climate-chasm-rich-poor

Enjoyed this piece particularly:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/20/revealed-huge-climate-impact-of-the-middle-classes-carbon-divide

[Tamas]

The UN is such a joke. It would be a significant challenge to find another person on tbe planet with more vested interest in maintaining global reliance on fossil fuels, and he is the president of COP 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/29/cop28-president-denies-on-eve-of-summit-he-abused-his-position-to-sign-oil-deals

[Sheilbh]

I have seen some criticism of this reporting. To an extent it always happens at COPs - though they're not always in the chair

But the criticism basically points out that on oil and gas Adnoc are basically focusing on gas and downstream projects - which is what you'd expect and is not entirely out of sync with energy transition. But also that Adnoc revenue is basically cross-subsidising Masdar which is the Emirati green energy company (and one of the biggest in the world):


That's in billions - in energy terms Masdar have already done 20GW of renewables and are aiming for 100GW (for comparison that's about the size of the UK's entire energy mix).

Not sure how much to buy it or that it's not an issue but it certainly feels like the UAE is doing better as an oil producer than most (or than Western energy companies) at using the remaining income from hydrocarbons for the capital spend required for energy transition (while also aiming to ensure the UAE has a stronger economic basis post-energy transition).

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Image if they'd do cop remotely... that's 70000 people that didn't have be moved by plane and didn't have to be put up in the mecca of decadence.
And these are the people that'll decide what the normal people, let's call them plebs, get to suffer through in the future.
Not credible