Saudi Arabia will likely go broke before the US oil industry buckles

[The Brain]

Tet says that's a bad/good idea.

[Razgovory]

There is nine million foreign workers in that country.  If the government fell there would be an enormous humanitarian crisis.  If an ISIS like government took control it could result in a vast genocide.

That's almost 1/3 of the total population of Saudi Arabia, though.  Plus, a large number are clustered in a small area.  They could probably take and hold significant amounts of territory if they wanted to.

If they were one armed and trained body, then yeah.  As it is they are Indian construction workers, Indonesia farm laborers, American engineers, Jordanian teachers etc.  Saudi Arabia is a corrupt and nasty regime that rules over a rather nasty and unpleasant populace.  I imagine the regime will fall one day, but I do not look forward to it.  ISIS will millions of foreign victims makes me shudder.  It would be like Apocalypse Now with turbans.

[DGuller]

If they were one armed and trained body, then yeah.  As it is they are Indian construction workers, Indonesia farm laborers, American engineers, Jordanian teachers etc.  Saudi Arabia is a corrupt and nasty regime that rules over a rather nasty and unpleasant populace.  I imagine the regime will fall one day, but I do not look forward to it.  ISIS will millions of foreign victims makes me shudder.  It would be like Apocalypse Now with turbans.

It's one of those many vicious circles of the Middle East.  The populace is nasty and unpleasant because it was raised by nasty and unpleasant rulers.  But, yeah, if you cut down the current nasty and unpleasant rulers, then what population are you going to draw the new rulers from? 

It's like the seesaw battle between religious fundamentalists and secular butchers.  You need secular butchers to keep fundamentalists from power, which is going to have destructive results, but the act of butchering secularly just adds fuel to the fundamentalist fire. 

So what is to be done?  Finding plenty of oil in other places, I guess.

[MadImmortalMan]

Finding plenty of oil in other places, I guess.

Pretty much. I mean, can you imagine what kind of entitlement mentality must exist there? Once the oil no longer pays the bills there's basically going to be riots by people who want back what was never really feasible in the first place. Kinda like Greece I guess.

[lustindarkness]

Nuke.from.orbit.

[Razgovory]

If they were one armed and trained body, then yeah.  As it is they are Indian construction workers, Indonesia farm laborers, American engineers, Jordanian teachers etc.  Saudi Arabia is a corrupt and nasty regime that rules over a rather nasty and unpleasant populace.  I imagine the regime will fall one day, but I do not look forward to it.  ISIS will millions of foreign victims makes me shudder.  It would be like Apocalypse Now with turbans.

It's one of those many vicious circles of the Middle East.  The populace is nasty and unpleasant because it was raised by nasty and unpleasant rulers.  But, yeah, if you cut down the current nasty and unpleasant rulers, then what population are you going to draw the new rulers from? 

It's like the seesaw battle between religious fundamentalists and secular butchers.  You need secular butchers to keep fundamentalists from power, which is going to have destructive results, but the act of butchering secularly just adds fuel to the fundamentalist fire. 

So what is to be done?  Finding plenty of oil in other places, I guess.

Actually I think it's the other way around.  Nasty countries breed nasty leaders who must use nasty methods to keep their countries under control.  The Saudi citizens refuse to do work they deem beneath them, so you have this massive number of guest workers.  The Saudis resent these laborers and hold them in contempt.  They also want to be a world power and have other nations respect them, but are to proud and indolent to do the hard work to make that happen.  So you have perpetually angry, hateful, and idle population.  This problem seems to be endemic over the entire Arab world, but I think it might be worst in the Gulf Arab states.  I don't think it's a coincidence that these countries had legal slavery in living memory.  Were it not for oil they would probably be like Somalia.  I suspect that is what their future will look like.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

If they were one armed and trained body, then yeah.  As it is they are Indian construction workers, Indonesia farm laborers, American engineers, Jordanian teachers etc.

More than a few examples of untrained groups taking ground and holding it long enough to become trained. Getting them to work together might be another thing...

[jimmy olsen]

US to become world's top producer by 2019 at the latest.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/27/us-will-overtake-russia-as-top-oil-producer-by-2019.html

US will overtake Russia as top oil producer by 2019, says the International Energy Agency



•The United States will overtake Russia as the world's biggest oil producer by 2019 at the latest, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
•U.S. crude oil output rose above 10 million barrels per day (bpd) late last year for the first time since the 1970s, overtaking top oil exporter Saudi Arabia.
   Published 12:22 AM ET Tue, 27 Feb 2018 

The United States will overtake Russia as the world's biggest oil producer by 2019 at the latest, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday, as the country's shale oil boom continues to upend global markets.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said at an event in Tokyo the United States would overtake Russia as the biggest crude oil producer "definitely next year", if not this year.

"U.S. shale growth is very strong, the pace is very strong ... The United States will become the No.1 oil producer sometime very soon," he told Reuters separately.


U.S. crude oil output rose above 10 million barrels per day (bpd) late last year for the first time since the 1970s, overtaking top oil exporter Saudi Arabia.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said early this month that U.S. output would exceed 11 million bpd by late 2018.

That would take it past top producer Russia, which pumps just below that mark.

Birol said he did not see U.S. oil production peaking before 2020, and that he did not expect a decline in the next four to five years.

The soaring U.S. production is upending global oil markets, coming at a time when other major producers — including Russia and members of the Middle East-dominated Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) — have been withholding output to prop up prices.

U.S. oil is also increasingly being exported, including to the world's biggest and fastest growing markets in Asia, eating away at OPEC and Russian market share.

Meanwhile, U.S. net imports of crude oil fell last week by 1.6 million bpd to 4.98 million bpd, the lowest level since the EIA started recording the data in 2001, reflecting further erosion in a market OPEC has been relying on for decades.

Birol said production growth was not just strong in the United States.

"Canada, especially the oil sands, and Brazilian offshore projects. These are the two major (non-U.S.) drivers," he said.

On the demand side, Birol said the IEA expected growth of around 1.4 million bpd in 2018.

[The Brain]

Thanks Trump!

[jimmy olsen]

Thanks Trump!

Has nothing to do with Trump, Obama or any other presidential policy.

[mongers]

Thanks Trump!

Has nothing to do with Trump, Obama or any other presidential policy.

And certainly nothing to do with the green policies/news items you often trumpet here. 

[KRonn]

US to become world's top producer by 2019 at the latest.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/27/us-will-overtake-russia-as-top-oil-producer-by-2019.html

This is pretty amazing. It's been happening for some years now  and is going even stronger as more areas are opened up. But I think one of the biggest factors is how fracking has become a lot more efficient, even to often keeping up with low crude oil prices as OPEC tried to force prices down. That didn't work. And I believe fracking is becoming more enviro friendly which is another huge plus.

The US, I think under Trump but maybe Obama, loosened laws to allow exports of crude oil. Before US laws only allowed export of refined petro products which US companies were doing as it had surpluses.

[Eddie Teach]

Thanks Trump!

Drill, baby, drill?