Greek Referendum Poll

[celedhring]

In other Southern untermenschen news, Spain has lost the voting for chairing the Eurogroup, Dijsselbloem will stay as leader. Our president had spent a lot of political capital on that.

Berlin proditoribus non premiae.

[Zanza]

Is there anything to suggest that Dijsselbloem was only (or at least mainly) elected due to German political machinations?

[crazy canuck]

Is there anything to suggest that Dijsselbloem was only (or at least mainly) elected due to German political machinations?

The fact he won 



j/k.  But Germany is going to be suspect for some time...

[celedhring]

Is there anything to suggest that Dijsselbloem was only (or at least mainly) elected due to German political machinations?

Of course, you're evil. 

Nah, the voting is secret so we'll never know, but Guindos was the "austerity is good, but let's not get carried away" candidate, while Dijsselbloem is total hardcore. I think I know which way Germany fell on.

To be honest, I'm not even annoyed, it's a massive slap on the face on our conservative pro-austerity government, and I'm happy with their face being slapped.

[Maladict]

The Germans announced they were not supporting Dijsselbloem weeks ago. 

[Zanza]

Back in August last year Merkel publicly said she wants de Guindos. Schäuble preferred Dijsselbloem. I guess Merkel just did not want to overrule Schäuble on this. But the vote in the end was unanimous anyway.

[celedhring]

Back in August last year Merkel publicly said she wants de Guindos. Schäuble preferred Dijsselbloem. I guess Merkel just did not want to overrule Schäuble on this. But the vote in the end was unanimous anyway.

The way it's reported here is that there was a first vote where Dijsselbloem won by a slim margin, and then they cast another one to give him unanimous backing.

Anyway, the result of this underlines the fact that we have extremely little political power within the EU, despite the fact we are the 4th largest EZ economy (and we have contributed to the Ireland/Portugal/Greece bailouts accordingly).

[Zanza]

52% of Germans think Greece should get further support, 44% against
57% think the conditions of the deal are appropriate
78% don't believe Greece will actually implement them

[Zanza]

Anyway, the result of this underlines the fact that we have extremely little political power within the EU, despite the fact we are the 4th largest EZ economy (and we have contributed to the Ireland/Portugal/Greece bailouts accordingly).

Maybe being Metkel's favorite was more of a curse than a blessing.

[Norgy]

Nothing changed. Austerity doesn't work and never had.

It has worked in Ireland, Spain, the UK, Latvia, the US, Iceland, Portugal, and countless other countries, but other than it has never worked.

Sort of worked in Sweden, which now spouts growth rates not seen since the golden days of Erlander and Palme. I don't think you can claim austerity "works" in the UK or that it saved Iceland, though. And Spain is closer to its Francoist past than ever. So, let's say it saved Latvia, that powerhouse of the Baltics.
Or something.

[frunk]

It has worked in Ireland, Spain, the UK, Latvia, the US, Iceland, Portugal, and countless other countries, but other than it has never worked.

Sort of worked in Sweden, which now spouts growth rates not seen since the golden days of Erlander and Palme. I don't think you can claim austerity "works" in the UK or that it saved Iceland, though. And Spain is closer to its Francoist past than ever. So, let's say it saved Latvia, that powerhouse of the Baltics.
Or something.

And the austerity in the US was after a rather large stimulus.

[Duque de Bragança]

In other Southern untermenschen news, Spain has lost the voting for chairing the Eurogroup, Dijsselbloem will stay as leader. Our president had spent a lot of political capital on that.

Berolinum proditoribus non præmia.

Fixed! There are variants for the remainder of the sentence but Lusitanians would get the message I believe. 

[Admiral Yi]

Sort of worked in Sweden, which now spouts growth rates not seen since the golden days of Erlander and Palme. I don't think you can claim austerity "works" in the UK or that it saved Iceland, though. And Spain is closer to its Francoist past than ever. So, let's say it saved Latvia, that powerhouse of the Baltics.
Or something.

What do you consider "austerity working" to be?

I think it is a maintenance or improvement in creditworthiness caused by a decrease in deficits.

[The Minsky Moment]

Under the situation where a country:
+ has no central bank or control over monetary policy
+ exchange rate is fixed as with largest trade partners
+ faces severe recession and financial crisis that is global in dimension

A policy of hard austerity as that actually demanded of and implemented by Greece is insane.  If you asked 1000 economists that hypo, 990 are going to say it's nuts.

You can talk blue in the face about whether austerity "worked" here or there.  But is was predictable it would fail in Greece, it did fail, and it failed badly.  And part of what is happening now is a consequence of that failure.

[Iormlund]

I think it is a maintenance or improvement in creditworthiness caused by a decrease in deficits.

Flawed metric. Deficits are just one more factor for investors. What they want to know is if they'll get their money back. Tanking your economy via cuts is just as bad for that as a ginormous deficit.

To say that austerity (or anything else) has worked you need to consider the evolution of purchasing power, unemployment, demographics, investment ... and yes, also debt management. I wouldn't class a country with long-term 20+% unemployment a "success", for example.

The only examples I can think of where austerity worked are countries which undertook counter-cyclical cuts (when others could consume what the internal market would no longer be able to). This is not possible when everyone is cutting at the same time as the market keeps shrinking.