Greek Referendum Poll

[Monoriu]

The obvious solution is for Tsipras to call a second referendum on the latest Eurozone proposals.  If the Greeks vote no, he will have a better mandate to negotiate again. 

[Drakken]

There is no leeway for further negociations.

Future negociations have as prerequisite that Syriza and the Greek Parliamemt votes ALL these demands into law before Wednesday midnight, including privatizations and supervision by Euro-technocrats in Athens. Only when this is done that the EZ will consider opening up negociations for a possible bailout that is not even certain.

Calling another referendum will be taken as a no deal.

[Monoriu]

There is no leeway for further negociations.

Future negociations have as prerequisite that Syriza and the Greek Parliamemt votes ALL these demands into law, including supervision by Euro-technocrats in Athens. Only when this is done that the EZ will consider opening up negociations for a possible bailout that is not even certain.

I was messing around, trying to make an infinite loop 

[crazy canuck]

I have never had a problem finding English speakers in France.  Although on my last few trips I haven't had to since my wife and children speak French.  I have had difficulty finding English speakers in Germany.

[Monoriu]

France is the biggest problem when it comes to languages because they take foreigners not speaking French as an insult, and react as such.  Japan is also high on the list but the problem is different.  Their problem is fear of making mistakes, so they refuse to try.  The good news is they don't expect foreigners to speak Japanese.  Japanese are perfectly willing to communicate with hand gestures, mobile phone translation apps, numbers on calculators etc. 

[Drakken]

There is no leeway for further negociations.

Future negociations have as prerequisite that Syriza and the Greek Parliamemt votes ALL these demands into law, including supervision by Euro-technocrats in Athens. Only when this is done that the EZ will consider opening up negociations for a possible bailout that is not even certain.

I was messing around, trying to make an infinite loop 

You can read the whole document here :

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/620272062771429377

Now that I have read the exact terms and sitten to ponder about them, while some do feel reasonable others are indeed astonishingly harsh in this day and age, and a direct assault on Greece's sovereignty: Forced privatization of national-owned assets? Transfer of all valuable assets owned by the Greek governement to an external fund situated in Luxemburg? Oversight by international agents answering only to Berlin the Troika? All of these in exchange only for possible negociations to a future-undetermined bailout that is not even certain?

This is not asking for a show of good will. And yes, I get that neither Tsirpas, his minions, or any member of the Greek parliament are considered to be trustworthy and in good faith, and yes I get they and their predecessors have literally surfed on the bailout money without lifting a finger for almost a decade. However, objectively, neither are these terms. No one will make me swallow that these disproportionate proposals were not made in Berlin and have been unanimously accepted even by France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal.

These do have a vibe to be thrown hereabout knowing full well these will be rejected, and these will be rejected. Which means the whole package deal will be rejected. Only madmen out of a bedlam (or hawks) would propose terms that purposefully designed to be rejected by any nation with a semblance of national pride even on the brink of autodestruction, totally expecting these to be accepted as a matter of course.

I naturally distaste hyperbolics when discussing politics (like the current comparing Merkel to Hitler and all that bullshit), but Greece accepting this would turn it into a protectorate, no if and buts. I can't see how accepting this will not lead to a coup d'État, civil war, or the Greek population throwing themselves arms wide open into the Golden Dawn.

Also, if I were a Spaniard, a Portuguese, an Italian, or a French citizen I would read these terms with shivers down my spine.

[Monoriu]

You can read the whole document here :

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/620272062771429377

Now that I have read the exact terms and sitten to ponder about them, while some do feel reasonable others are indeed astonishingly harsh in this day and age, and a direct attack on Greece's sovereignty: Forced privatization of national-own assets? Transfer of all valuable assets owned by the Greek governement to be transfered to an external fund in Luxemburg? Oversight by international agents answering only to Berlin the Troika?

These do have a vibe to be thrown hereabout knowing full well these will be rejected, and it will be rejected. Only madmen out of a bedlam would propose terms purposefully designed to be rejected by any nation with a semblance of national pride, even on the brink of autodestruction, expecting these to be accepted.

I naturally distaste in hyperbolics when discussing politics (like the current comparing Merkel to Hitler and all that bullshit), but Greece accepting this would turn it into a protectorate. I can't see how accepting this will not lead to a coup d'État, civil war, or the Greek population throwing themselves arms wide open into the Golden Dawn.

Maybe that's because Greece did not implement the necessary reforms in the past 5 years?  If they didn't privatise in the past 5 years, then how can Europe trust that they will do so in the next 5 years?  In this case mere promise isn't enough.  There beeds to be assurances that Greece will reform, otherwise there is no point throwing good money after bad.

[Drakken]

Maybe that's because Greece did not implement the necessary reforms in the past 5 years?  If they didn't privatise in the past 5 years, then how can Europe trust that they will do so in the next 5 years?  In this case mere promise isn't enough.  There beeds to be assurances that Greece will reform, otherwise there is no point throwing good money after bad.

But these are not asking for reasonable guarantees, the Eurogroup have effectively engaged a Melian dialogue with Athens (oh, the irony), under the guise of "showing good faith".

"For ourselves, we shall not trouble you with specious pretenses—either of how we have a right to our empire because we overthrew the Mede, or are now attacking you because of wrong that you have done us—and make a long speech which would not be believed; and in return we hope that you, instead of thinking to influence us by saying that you did not join the Spartans, although their colonists, or that you have done us no wrong, will aim at what is feasible, holding in view the real sentiments of us both; since you know as well as we do that right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" (Thucydides 5.89).

These few terms are so excessive, even for a country that has thrown dust into their bailout partners' eyes for half-a-decade. And they have 48 hours to comply to each and every one of them. This is well within what I would define an strongarm ultimatum.

There would have been nothing wrong, per my opinion, with requesting a limited show a good faith by some limited action, like for instance (totally out of my ass) applying into law those demands that are not carving into Greece sovereignty like streamlining the VAT coupled with tax reforms to widen the tax base, in exchange for a short-term help bailout allowing the Greek banks some breathing space. If complied, the negociation table is open to more long-term solutions for a bailout. You know, carrots-and-sticks, tit-and-tat. The current set of demands is all sticks for not even a carrot certain in the future. They wouldn't be palatable even for Zimbabwe or North Korea, let alone Greece.

[Monoriu]

Too bad.  If someone has broken a promise in the past, then it takes a lot more for a similar promise to be accepted now.  Fool me once and all that.  That is the price that Greece needs to pay for its word to be taken seriously again. 

There is a huge carrot - the, what, 80 billion Euros that the Europeans will lend to Greece.  With the almost certainty that these won't be repaid. 

[Drakken]

Too bad.  If someone has broken a promise in the past, then it takes a lot more for a similar promise to be accepted now.  Fool me once and all that.  That is the price that Greece needs to pay for its word to be taken seriously again. 

There is a huge carrot - the, what, 80 billion Euros that the Europeans will lend to Greece.  With the almost certainty that these won't be repaid.

Because Greece would be taken seriously by any country and by international bodies if they accepted the terms? Greece, of all countries, which has coined the term 'Molon Labe'?

This argument is spurious. For it to be valable it would need to have consistently been presented to countries which are notoriously in bad faith economically-wise. Zimbabwe, for instance, have ceased payments on all their debts since 1999 and have been suspended from the IMF. They have been allowed to run hyperinflation into the trillions of dollars on a single dollar bill. Yet even they, of all bad world partners, were never presented with proposals that were within a iota of what is proposed now to Greece.

http://www.voanews.com/content/imf-not-ready-to-resume-funding-to-zimbabwe/2674577.html

Besides, those 80 billion Euros are not even on the table as of yet. They don't exist, they MIGHT be discussed, someday god-knows-when, if Greece complies unconditionally with each and every term within the next 48 hours.

[Monoriu]

Too bad.  If someone has broken a promise in the past, then it takes a lot more for a similar promise to be accepted now.  Fool me once and all that.  That is the price that Greece needs to pay for its word to be taken seriously again. 

There is a huge carrot - the, what, 80 billion Euros that the Europeans will lend to Greece.  With the almost certainty that these won't be repaid.

Because Greece would be taken seriously by any country and by international body if they accepted the terms? Greece, of all countries, which has coined the term 'Molon Labe'?

This argument is spurious. For it to be valable it would need to have consistently been presented to countries which are notoriously in bad faith economically-wise. Zimbabwe, for instance, have ceased payments on all their debts since 1999 and have been suspended from the IMF. They have been allowed to run hyperinflation into the trillions of dollars on a single dollar bill. Yet even they, of all bad world partners, were never presented with proposals that were within a iota of what is proposed to Greece.

http://www.voanews.com/content/imf-not-ready-to-resume-funding-to-zimbabwe/2674577.html

Besides, those 80 billion Euros are not even on the table as of yet. They don't exist, they MIGHT be discussed, someday god-knows-when, if Greece complies unconditionally with each and every term within the next 48 hours.

So what do you propose for the Europeans?  From their perspective, they lent money to Greece 5 years ago.  Greece promised to reform.  They didn't.  Even held a referendum to say no to creditors.  Their finance minister called the people who provided cash lifeline to Greece terrorists.  Now Greece wants more money again.  What do you do?  Just accept their word again and give them billions and billions?  Taxpayers will be in revolt. 

[Drakken]

So what do you propose for the Europeans?  From their perspective, they lent money to Greece 5 years ago.  Greece promised to reform.  They didn't.  Even held a referendum to say no to creditors.  Their finance minister called the people who provided cash lifeline to Greece terrorists.  Now Greece wants more money again.  What do you do?  Just accept their word again and give them billions and billions?  Taxpayers will be in revolt.

American and Iranian officials are negociating around a table right now. So are North Korean and South Korean officials. And they call each other terrorists and imperialists all the time, even today. Even countries officially at war have diplomats that discuss within parallel channels, through neutral states for instance. Besides, Varoufakis is gone. He is not the Finance Minister anymore. His 'demission' was well within what I consider a good gesture. No one was willing to discuss with that dickhead anyway, he was an extraordinary bad negociator and a buffoon.

I would propose exactly what I have said above: Athens immediately passes and votes those policies that do not directly encroach on its sovereignty (like streamlining the VAT, tax reforms, and abrogation of all these silly tax deductions that have been put into the Greek constitution) coupled with tangible actions, not words, put into practice. I'd ask Athens to present a public restructuration plan to attack the Greek's budget inbalance and fiscality issues within a reasonable time schedule (let's say a month), coupled with the establishment a permanent working committee to put this plan into action with observers from the IMF, the ECB, Eurogroup, and OCDE working in tandem with the Greek government, within the full respect of Greece's sovereignty.

In exchange, the ECB opens the valves with a very, very limited bailout (or extension of debt repayment) to allow the banks to function a bit, made wider conditionally to the continuation of said actions. Review every six months, with the due understanding that if results are not satisfactory or Greece shows bad faith again, the bailout will be shut down until they resume action.

As you may note, this is not very different from any financial service manager dealing with a client with a bad credit rating. The goal here is not to destroy the client, but find a way that he repays his loans. I fully understand the Eurozone partners (and their taxpayers) to want their money back, but putting Greece into a surrender-or-die posture is a sure way that they will never get to see that money again and build enormous amounts of distrust against Europe, which might profit to the far-right not only in Greece, but elsewhere (like Marine Le Pen in France - as an aside, I'd dare to predict that by the intransigeant language of the Eurogroup proposal, Merkel and her allies have made a Le Pen presidency in France scenario very realistic in the near-future; they have just acted in a way that proves her and the FN anti-Europe rhetoric right). Plus, the worst thing you can do to a partner you'll have to deal with in the future, even if he is unreliable, is to slap him in the face.

[Admiral Yi]

Which measures are the ones that are infringing on Greece's sovereignty?

[Drakken]

Which measures are the ones that are infringing on Greece's sovereignty?

- Imposition of privatizations of nationalized assets, like the state-owned electricity grid.
-  Either transfer of all valuable assets owned by the Greek governement (of estimated value of 50 billion Euros) to an external fund situated in Luxemburg, or to be privatized and sold with the liquidity being immediately put on the Greek debt
- Oversight by agents sent invited in Athens and answering only to the IMF, the Eurogroup committee, and the ECB
- That the Greek government must consult with these instutitions and get their agreements on all legislative drafts touching relevant areas before being submitted to either Parliament or the public
- All of the demanded measures have to be passed and approved in legislature, as a whole package, in the next 48 hours.

You may read it all in the link I have supplied. It is only 4 pages long, so TL;DR doesn't apply.

[Admiral Yi]

You may read it all in the link I have supplied. It is only 4 pages long, so TL;DR doesn't apply.

You're talking about those four camera pics on the Ed Conway site?