Greek Referendum Poll

[Admiral Yi]

There was a very clear moment of inflexion for most of those countries: Draghi's OMT announcement. That's because the root problem had always been political, not economic. Empirical data does not support the notion that austerity has done anything but lengthening the crisis.

Your explanation doesn't work for the countries outside the eurozone, nor for Greece, which is inside the eurozone.

Nor does it explain what happens when and if the ECB stops buying bonds.

The fact remains that according to Marty and other posters, any country that engages in austerity is doomed.  The evidence does not support this.

[Iormlund]

I can only speak for myself, not Marty or others. I don't think some austerity is bad. I do believe a balanced (on average) budget is the healthiest way.

The problem is relying exclusively on austerity as a tool for crisis solving, which was the doctrine in the Eurozone up till Draghi's speech. And has been shown not to work. Even the best examples, the Baltics, are terrible. Latvia, which you mention, receives 4.5% of GDP from migrant workers IIRC. It has "succeeded" by sending its youth abroad.

[MadImmortalMan]

Yi subscribes to a school of economics that doesn't put a lot of faith in that sort of thing.

Well he's right that the point of the austerity was not to create growth. That would be a very difficult assertion to defend.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Because their economies are lousy and their governments are sad jokes.

not unlike Greece's for the past century or so

[Martinus]

Because their economies are lousy and their governments are sad jokes.

not unlike Greece's for the past century or so

I think you are missing Minsky's point.

[crazy canuck]

There was a very clear moment of inflexion for most of those countries: Draghi's OMT announcement. That's because the root problem had always been political, not economic. Empirical data does not support the notion that austerity has done anything but lengthening the crisis.

Your explanation doesn't work for the countries outside the eurozone, nor for Greece, which is inside the eurozone.

Nor does it explain what happens when and if the ECB stops buying bonds.

The fact remains that according to Marty and other posters, any country that engages in austerity is doomed.  The evidence does not support this.

What other posters ever made that argument?

[Monoriu]

The Economist explains

Alexis Tsipras's U-turn

Jul 12th 2015, 9:08 by S.N. | ATHENS

ON JULY 5th Greeks appeared to signal, through an overwhelming referendum result, that the reform demands made by Europe were too onerous to accept. Less than a week later, on July 11th, the Greek parliament passed a bill—with a majority of 251 out of 300 votes—giving the government of prime minister Alexis Tsipras authorisation to negotiate a bail-out deal with creditors, in light of a proposal that includes conditions harsher than those rejected at the referendum. The government did not need parliamentary authorisation for this, but now that it has it, the Greek political leadership appears to present an unusually united front. This extraordinary about face may not end up achieving anything; the European leaders now meeting in Brussels may decide that Greece cannot be trusted and must go. The reversal in the Greek stance is nonetheless remarkable. How did Mr Tsipras go from imploring Greeks to vote down a package of reforms proposed by the creditors, which 62% of voters dutifully did, to begging the Greek parliament to sign up to an even harsher package less than a week later, and what consequences will the U-turn have?

One explanation is that Mr Tsipras has an extraordinary gift for persuasion; the fact that Athens isn't currently being razed by betrayed "Oxi" (No) voters suggests as much. But the more compelling reason is that the Greeks have realised they cannot have their cake and eat it. The referendum promised the impossible: a less-harsh package of reforms and continued membership in the euro zone. But once it became clear that the euro zone creditors were in no mood to negotiate, Greek parliamentarians (and, it would seem, many Oxi voters) did not need long to determine that a Grexit would be more catastrophic than more austerity. "At least we had a go," seems to be a common attitude.

Mr Tsipras's conciliatory performance has surprised Mr Tsipras's critics and, perhaps, given them hope for the future. "He finally chose country over party," says one relieved member of the opposition. But it has cost him. Fifteen of his own MPs, including two ministers, revolted by voting against the bill, abstaining or staying at home, and another 15 signed a letter saying they only voted for the bill in order to protect the government's majority. Yanis Varoufakis, until last week Mr Tsipras's finance minister, skipped the vote entirely. Without the support of these defectors,  To regain it he has a few options. He could reshuffle his cabinet and demand that the defectors resign and hand over their votes. He could call for a Mr Tsipras in effect no longer holds a parliamentary majority.new election, which he may do anyway later in the year. Or he could form a new coalition to make the numbers add up, most obviously with Potami and Pasok: two centre-left parties. Or European creditors may force his hand, calling for a technocratic government. They would certainly find a new, broader coalition more assuring of the Greek commitment to implementing reforms.

The show of support by opposition parties in the authorisation vote was a matter of pragmatism, rather than enthusiasm for the reform package. "Now is the time to do everything possible to keep Greece within the euro zone," said opposition MP Niki Kerameus. "Now is not the time to discuss why Syriza went from promising 12 billion euros in grants to proposing 12 billion euros in austerity measures." But such discussions will surely be had behind closed doors. The bill's passage will probably lead to what many moderates had hoped all along: a split within Syriza that forces Mr Tsipras to rid the party of its extreme-left flank. As long as the current armistice amongst Greek politicians lasts, Mr Tsipras can enjoy wide support from outside his party. All this, together with the lack of popular unrest for now, presents an impressive show of Greek unity. But once a deal is signed—or rejected—the knives will surely come out again before long.

[PJL]

Latest, EU/Troika demands sovereignty over Greece before more bailouts are done. In effect all reforms must be passed by the Greek Parliament in the next 48 hours before monies are given.

In other words, the EU/Troika/Germany just annexed Greece.

Seriously, I consider this about as reasonable as Austria-Hungary's demands on Serbia in 1914. If anything the latter was a bit more reasonable.

[Iormlund]

Nah, it's reasonable if you don't have faith in Greek political establishment. And who has? It's what it should have been done to pass structural reforms from the very start.

[Drakken]

Latest, EU/Troika demands sovereignty over Greece before more bailouts are done. In effect all reforms must be passed by the Greek Parliament in the next 48 hours before monies are given.

In other words, the EU/Troika/Germany just annexed Greece.

Seriously, I consider this about as reasonable as Austria-Hungary's demands on Serbia in 1914. If anything the latter was a bit more reasonable.

Could we have the exact terms of the Troika "ulitmatum", rather than histrionic sophistry? How exactly is Greece's sovereignty being breached?

[Drakken]

Also, the possibility of a "temporary" Grexit being denied, the EZ has basically gone all-in: Either Greece bends over and folds, or it exits the Euro.

The political goal here is clear, provoke a total explosion of the current Syriza-led coalition if it accepts, hopefully for a government which will be more "cooperative" in negociations, or put the blame on Syriza if it finds itself incapable of mustering a majority within 48 hours.

[PJL]

Latest, EU/Troika demands sovereignty over Greece before more bailouts are done. In effect all reforms must be passed by the Greek Parliament in the next 48 hours before monies are given.

In other words, the EU/Troika/Germany just annexed Greece.

Seriously, I consider this about as reasonable as Austria-Hungary's demands on Serbia in 1914. If anything the latter was a bit more reasonable.

Could we have the exact terms of the Troika "ulitmatum", rather than histrionic sophistry? How exactly is Greece's sovereignty being breached?

Here's the 14 12 point plan.

[grumbler]

Here's the 14 12 point plan.

Wow.  You are correct.  Greece will lose its sovereignty if ELSTAT can't produce partisan political statistics. 

I assume that the points about Greece removing from office those who engaged in propaganda against the ECB and the one about the collaboration in Greece of representatives of the ECB for the suppression of the subversive movement directed against the integrity of the Euro were accidentally cropped by your source, imgur.com?

[crazy canuck]

 That plan would effectively turn Greece into a vassal of Euro technocrats.  Complete with introducing a new code of law that only the technocrats will understand.  There have been arguments that this is what the EU is in reality but now we see it in action stripped of any pretence of national government autonomy.

[Martinus]

Here's the 14 12 point plan.

Wow.  You are correct.  Greece will lose its sovereignty if ELSTAT can't produce partisan political statistics. 

I assume that the points about Greece removing from office those who engaged in propaganda against the ECB and the one about the collaboration in Greece of representatives of the ECB for the suppression of the subversive movement directed against the integrity of the Euro were accidentally cropped by your source, imgur.com?

I thought some other points were more relevant than the ELSTAT one...

For example, saying that a country must conduct an "independent" (thus, not based on political will of the people) privatisation is quite outrageous.