Greek Referendum Poll

[MadImmortalMan]

Yeah. When people and companies fall on hard times, the state's expenses on social welfare (and other associated costs that, in the absence of poverty, are often met by the people themselves) increase.

I don't recall Greece experiencing any particularly notable economic problems prior to the collapse of Greek credit.  You would need a pretty monumental collapse in employment to justify a 19% deficit.

A 30% of GDP black market.

[Admiral Yi]

Actually that number seemed kind of low to me.  The stereotype in Latin America for example is that the only people who pay taxes are employees of the government and foreign companies.

[Zanza]

The number for Greece is strange. I wonder what that contains.

[Admiral Yi]

The number for Greece is strange. I wonder what that contains.

I imagine Greek bonds held by Greek banks.

[Zanza]

Doesn't match the figures I saw for those bonds earlier. Greek banks held less Greek debt than say those of Portugal? Doubtful.

[Admiral Yi]

Doesn't match the figures I saw for those bonds earlier. Greek banks held less Greek debt than say those of Portugal? Doubtful.

The Portuguese figure would also include the country-country debt.

[Monoriu]

The Economist thinks Grexit is imminent.

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21657275-euro-zone-leaders-demand-alexis-tsipras-propose-deal-harsher-one-greek-voters-just-rejected

Greece and the eurozone
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Bitter cup

Euro-zone leaders demand Alexis Tsipras offer them a deal harsher than the one Greek voters just rejected. Grexit seems imminent

Jul 7th 2015  | BRUSSELS | Europe

IT IS hard to sound threatening when you have bared your teeth so many times before. But Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, pulled it off last night. Speaking after the euro zone's 19 heads of government had failed, yet again, to strike a bail-out deal with Greece's government, Mr Tusk declared that only five days remained to find common ground. Failure, he said, would be "most painful for the Greek people," and would also have a "geopolitical" impact on the entire EU. Anyone who believed otherwise, he added, was "naïve".

Grexit now appears to be the default position of most euro-zone leaders. All 28 of the European Union's heads of government, including the nine from non-euro zone countries, will meet on Sunday to discuss a humanitarian aid package that could be assembled from the EU budget, should Greece fall out of the euro and into what Mr Tusk called a "black scenario". Standing next to him, Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, whose visible loss of patience with Greece has told its own story in the last two weeks, thumped his lectern before declaring that the government of Alexis Tsipras (pictured, with German chancellor Angela Merkel) had until 8.30am on Friday to produce a list of reforms it would commit to in exchange for a third bail-out programme.

Last week, as Mr Tsipras urged Greeks to vote against a bail-out proposal in a referendum he had suddenly called on June 26th, Europe's leaders warned that his negotiating hand would be weakened if voters heeded his call. Last night they made good on that pledge. Mr Tsipras, they made clear, will not be able to sign up to the deal his voters rejected, because the bail-out programme to which it was attached expired on June 30th. He will need to make yet more concessions to his creditors. If they are convinced by his proposal, then the euro zone's 19 leaders, who will meet immediately before the full EU's 28 on Sunday, will instruct the three "institutions" that monitor euro-zone bail-outs—the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF—to begin serious discussions over a bail-out that could last two to three years. No figures were discussed in detail last night, but a senior commission official gave your correspondent a ball-park figure of €50 billion-€100 billion. Every day, he added, as Greece's shuttered banks and capital controls eat further into a battered economy, that figure will rise.

Two paradoxes: why Greece and its creditors are both negotiating against their own interests

Mr Tsipras and his new finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, had arrived in Brussels last night brandishing fresh demands—short-term financing deal to get them over a daunting summer of repayments—but no fresh reform proposals. That left some of their euro-zone peers perplexed. Instead, said Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, after the summit, a short-term deal could only be arranged once a long-term agreement had been secured. If Mr Tsipras does find the stomach to propose a deal worse than the one that 61% of Greek voters rejected on July 5th, the euro zone will doubtless find the will to help Greece through its imminent redemptions, including an ECB bond worth €3.5 billion on July 20th. The ECB itself provides the most obvious route to do so, perhaps by raising the amount of short-term debt Greece may issue.

But last night's events leave Mr Tsipras in an extremely tight spot, perhaps an impossible one. Greece's banks, gasping for breath after the ECB capped its emergency liquidity support on June 28th, may struggle on to the end of the week without more help, but for no longer than that. Politically, Mr Tsipras finds himself in a trap of his own creation. If he does his creditors' bidding, the voters who danced in the squares of Athens after delivering him his landslide referendum victory may scent a great betrayal—although they may direct their anger towards the creditors rather than the government. Hardliners in his party, too, will balk at supporting such a capitulation. Fresh elections might follow. Moreover, the Europeans are sticking to their line that even discussing a restructuring of Greece's vast debts, a key demand for Mr Tsipras, must wait until after the Greeks have started to implement their reforms (or, in the jargon, "prior actions"). October might be a reasonable time to start that conversation, said Mr Tusk. Campaigning for election at the start of the year, and again during his referendum last week, Mr Tsipras promised the Greeks champagne. Instead, he can hope only to deliver them gruel.

The unusual move to convene a full EU summit on Sunday may concentrate Greek minds. But after nearly half a year of battling with Mr Tsipras's government, the rest of the euro zone will be under few illusions about the prospects for success. The possibility of Grexit has left the abstract realm it has occupied for the last couple of months and now feels imminent. Mr Juncker said last night that the commission had a fully realised plan for a Greek departure from the euro; an official later said it was about an inch thick. Officials continue to hew to the line that they want to keep Greece within the euro zone. But it is increasingly hard to find one who believes that it is possible. "This is one of the most critical issues in the history of the EU," said Mr Tusk last night. He is not a man given to hyperbole.

[Martinus]

Grexit would make sense if it is followed by a substantial reform of the Eurozone. I doubt it will happen.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Grexit would make sense if it is followed by a substantial reform of the Eurozone. I doubt it will happen.

I believe that under EU rules if Greece exits the euro it should (theoretically) also exit the EU?

In reality the rules will be ignored of course, as usual.

[Tamas]

Grexit would make sense if it is followed by a substantial reform of the Eurozone. I doubt it will happen.

I believe that under EU rules if Greece exits the euro it should (theoretically) also exit the EU?

In reality the rules will be ignored of course, as usual.

Rules are bourgeois chains on the working people.

[Martinus]

Grexit would make sense if it is followed by a substantial reform of the Eurozone. I doubt it will happen.

I believe that under EU rules if Greece exits the euro it should (theoretically) also exit the EU?

In reality the rules will be ignored of course, as usual.

Rules are bourgeois chains on the working people.

You mean the same rules that send the little people to jail for years for shoplifting but allow CEOs of large financial institutions to walk scott free when they wreck the economy with their swindles?

[garbon]

Grexit would make sense if it is followed by a substantial reform of the Eurozone. I doubt it will happen.

I believe that under EU rules if Greece exits the euro it should (theoretically) also exit the EU?

In reality the rules will be ignored of course, as usual.

Rules are bourgeois chains on the working people.

You mean the same rules that send the little people to jail for years for shoplifting but allow CEOs of large financial institutions to walk scott free when they wreck the economy with their swindles?

Thanks, GraldeMoney

[Martinus]

Someone needs to carry the torch of the revolution.

It seems only unmarried middle aged men have enough clarity of vision to call the spade a spade.

[celedhring]

We really need Seedy back for occasions like this.

[The Larch]

According to Italian newspaper La Stampa this is the current setup of the Eurogroup regarding Grexit:



Summary

Against Grexit: Italy, France, Cyprus, EU Commission and EU Parliament.
Would prefer to avoid Grexit: Spain, Ireland, Malta, Portugal and the Eurogroup president.
Ready for Grexit: Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.