Greek Referendum Poll

[alfred russel]

When your debt is denominated in a foreign currency, i.e. the euro, devaluing doesn't help.

Who in the world is going to pick up the tab?

All the folks crying "no more austerity" don't seem to have considered what it entails.  Where is Greece going to get the money to pay for more spending?

They aren't going to be able to pay all their debt without redonominating it in drachmas and leaving the euro. Eurozone countries and the IMF have already put in a lot of money, and it looks unlikely they are going to get it all back, so it seems others in the world are helping to pick up the tab.

[Martinus]

I love how circular Yi is - we discussed this at least 2 or 3 times before - Greece will need to have a substantial part of its debt written off or it will default, which means all of its debt will be written off. Drachma devaluation is what will help them get by domestically, only.

[Admiral Yi]

I love how Marty slaps together words he doesn't understand, like "drachma devaluation is what will help them get by domestically," then says things like I'm being circular or--what was the other one?  Something about minutiae.

[Siege]

Be ware of a greek asking for gifts.

[Martinus]

Incidentally, I missed this earlier:

Greek non-payment of ECB bonds would not mean default rating-S&P

Failure by Greece to repay 6.7 billion euros worth of bonds held by the European Central Bank and maturing at the end of July would not constitute default under Standard and Poor's criteria, the ratings agency said on Monday.

It said its sovereign ratings criteria related to a government's ability and willingness to service obligations to commercial creditors and it considered the ECB as an official creditor.

It said nonpayment would be seen as a negative factor and could lead to a lower long-term rating than the current CCC rating but it would not constitute selective default (SD).

So it seems Greece has a way out without going bankrupt - it just needs to tell the Troika to fuck off. 

[Zanza]

They need to refinance 2 bn in T-Bills this Friday. If they can't that's a credit event.

[Martinus]

Greece's upcoming commercial debt payments include €2.0 billion in treasury bills due on July 10; €83 million on a Japanese yen obligation, due on July 14; and €71 million in interest, due on July 17 on a three-year commercial bond the government issued in July 2014. About €39 billion of Greece's total medium- and long-term debt is commercial, representing 22% of GDP. All of the remaining €261 billion in debt (excluding €15 billion in treasury bills) is owed to official creditors.

[Syt]

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-33382332

Varoufakis to stand down as finance minister
Posted at 06:40
Yanis Varoufakis is standing down as finance minister. On his blog he says: "Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants, and assorted 'partners', for my... 'absence' from its meetings; an idea that the Prime Minister judged to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement. For this reason I am leaving the Ministry of Finance today."

[Syt]

Personally, I tend to side with the IMF who say that much of Greek's debt is unrecoverable.

IMHO, there should be a rebuilding program for Greece:
- give them as much of a bailout as is the absolute minimum for functioning
- tier additional "bonus" payments based on progress in reforming their country's socio-economic structure into a functioning (mostly) non-corrupt state (which will also do wonders for public trust into the system)
- have said reforms evaluated/advised on by an independent council that's comprised in equal parts of Troika and Greek representatives
- be prepared that this will take 10, 20 years

[Monoriu]

So it seems Greece has a way out without going bankrupt - it just needs to tell the Troika to fuck off. 

I am sure some private creditor will be willing to lend money to Greece, provided that the yield is high enough.  Like insanely high.  If Greece is able to get financing from the commercial market, they don't need to negotiate with IMF etc in the first place. 

[Martinus]

Interesting move by Varoufakis. Are they playing bad cop/good cop?

[The Brain]

Personally, I tend to side with the IMF who say that much of Greek's debt is unrecoverable.

IMHO, there should be a rebuilding program for Greece:
- give them as much of a bailout as is the absolute minimum for functioning
- tier additional "bonus" payments based on progress in reforming their country's socio-economic structure into a functioning (mostly) non-corrupt state (which will also do wonders for public trust into the system)
- have said reforms evaluated/advised on by an independent council that's comprised in equal parts of Troika and Greek representatives
- be prepared that this will take 10, 20 years

Why rebuild Greece?

[Syt]

Personally, I tend to side with the IMF who say that much of Greek's debt is unrecoverable.

IMHO, there should be a rebuilding program for Greece:
- give them as much of a bailout as is the absolute minimum for functioning
- tier additional "bonus" payments based on progress in reforming their country's socio-economic structure into a functioning (mostly) non-corrupt state (which will also do wonders for public trust into the system)
- have said reforms evaluated/advised on by an independent council that's comprised in equal parts of Troika and Greek representatives
- be prepared that this will take 10, 20 years

Why rebuild Greece?

Have you looked at it recently?

[The Brain]

Is that Detroit?

[Syt]

Is that Detroit?

It's gonna be nice soon.