Greek Referendum Poll

[Admiral Yi]

Greece would have a full blown banking crisis if the ECB withdrew support. Once that happens (if it's not already happening), then distribution and supply networks would disintegrate, causing shortages everywhere. After that, it would go into full panic mode, with society disintegrating.  In that scenario, printing a new currency (or at least stamping Euros with BoG stamps on them as a start) would be an absolute necessity just to run a basic economy.

Countries like Montenegro and Panama don't need their own currencies, as their banks are solvent, so no-one is worried about losing their money in the bank.

Greece is going to have a full blown banking crisis either way, unless some sugar daddy restocks their banks.  If they drop the euro banks will still be unable to pay back depositors.

[PJL]

Greece would have a full blown banking crisis if the ECB withdrew support. Once that happens (if it's not already happening), then distribution and supply networks would disintegrate, causing shortages everywhere. After that, it would go into full panic mode, with society disintegrating.  In that scenario, printing a new currency (or at least stamping Euros with BoG stamps on them as a start) would be an absolute necessity just to run a basic economy.

Countries like Montenegro and Panama don't need their own currencies, as their banks are solvent, so no-one is worried about losing their money in the bank.

Greece is going to have a full blown banking crisis either way, unless some sugar daddy restocks their banks.  If they drop the euro banks will still be unable to pay back depositors.

If Greece has an independent currency, they can restock their banks themselves. The depositors would probably take a haircut through devaluation though.

[Legbiter]

Fiscal policy as Calvinball.

Syriza sources say the Greek ministry of finance is examining options to take direct control of the banking system if need be rather than accept a draconian seizure of depositor savings - reportedly a 'bail-in' above a threshhold of €8,000 - and to prevent any banks being shut down on the orders of the ECB.

Government officials recognize that this would lead to an unprecedented rift with the EU authorities. But Syriza's attitude at this stage is that their only defence against a hegemonic power is to fight guerrilla warfare.

Hardliners within the party - though not Mr Varoufakis - are demanding the head of governor Stournaras, a holdover appointee from the past conservative government.

They want a new team installed, one that is willing to draw on the central bank's secret reserves, and to take the provocative step in extremis of creating euros.

"The first thing we must do is take away the keys to his office. We have to restore stability to the system, with or without the help of the ECB. We have the capacity to print €20 notes," said one.

Such action would require invoking national emergency powers - by decree - and "requisitioning" the Bank of Greece for several months. Officials say these steps would have to be accompanied by an appeal to the European Court: both to assert legality under crisis provisions of the Lisbon Treaty, and to sue the ECB for alleged "dereliction" of its treaty duty to maintain financial stability.

Mr Tsakalotos told the Telegraph that the creditors will find themselves be in a morally indefensible position if they refuse to listen to the voice of the Greek people, especially since the International Monetary Fund last week validated Syriza's core claim that Greece's debt cannot be repaid.

"It would be a pretty extreme position for Europe to say that the vote didn't matter. That is not what they did when Ireland voted 'No' to the Lisbon treaty," he said.

THIS IS SPARTA!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11719688/Defiant-Greeks-reject-EU-demands-as-Syriza-readies-IOU-currency.html

[Duque de Bragança]

I thought Languish would appreciate that.

PS: sorry, it's not me, nor my t-shirt

[Grallon]

We are pleased. 

Now they need to nationalize the banks and (/grallonOn [execute all the banksters] /grallonOff)



G.

[Admiral Yi]

They will have no choice but to nationalize the banks.

[grumbler]

Greece needs to get the presses going with drachmas soonest.  I don't think they can forge any but the 20-euro note, so forging won't get them out of this mess. 

I think the Greeks made the smart choice, though.  They simply cannot compete on a level playing field with modern economies.  They'll have to compete based on currency devaluation.  That'll suck for pensioners and those who take expensive medicines, but it's the only way forward.  It's probably a good thing that they have a populist government right now:  mad inflation is inevitable, and the incompetence of the current government will probably extend the period of that inflation, but only a populist government (competent or not) could make the changes necessary without civil unrest.

[Monoriu]

I think Grexit is now likely.  Based on this referendum result, the EU leadership can either cave in to Greek demands or take a hard line.  I don't think the political climate in the rest of the EU allows the leadership to cave in, even if they want to.  It only takes inaction to force Greece to issue its own currency in the next few weeks.  At this point I don't think Greece is the main concern.  The real worry is if Spain and Italy will follow Greece's path and elect far left, populist governments.  Grexit is the choice that will better deter that. 

[alfred russel]

There can still be a path to compromise. The greek government is insisting on restructuring being a part of any deal, and realistically that is inevitable one way or the other.

[Monoriu]

I suggest that all other Euro states should hold referendums to see if taxpayers there agree to bail out the Greeks on more lenient terms 

[Admiral Yi]

There can still be a path to compromise. The greek government is insisting on restructuring being a part of any deal, and realistically that is inevitable one way or the other.

FYI, the EU portion of the debt has already been restructured.  Interest payments suspended, principle repayments pushed way back (2020?).

[Monoriu]

Greece had to choose between austerity and Grexit.  They chose Grexit.  They will have austerity.

[Razgovory]

They already had austerity, it failed to do what it was suppose to do.  Just like it failed in Britain.  I do wonder how much damage there will be the rest of EU. 

[alfred russel]

There can still be a path to compromise. The greek government is insisting on restructuring being a part of any deal, and realistically that is inevitable one way or the other.

FYI, the EU portion of the debt has already been restructured.  Interest payments suspended, principle repayments pushed way back (2020?).

They are going to get more restructuring, or someone to pay their bills, or a devalued currency to ease the debt burden, or some combination.

[Admiral Yi]

FYI, the EU portion of the debt has already been restructured.  Interest payments suspended, principle repayments pushed way back (2020?).

They are going to get more restructuring, or someone to pay their bills, or a devalued currency to ease the debt burden, or some combination.
[/quote]

When your debt is denominated in a foreign currency, i.e. the euro, devaluing doesn't help.

Who in the world is going to pick up the tab?

All the folks crying "no more austerity" don't seem to have considered what it entails.  Where is Greece going to get the money to pay for more spending?