Greek Referendum Poll

[Zanza]

Looks like it will be extremely close. If this goes down 51-49 either way, it will not have clarified anything at all...

http://www.publicissue.gr/en/2810/greek-referendum-2015/

[Zanza]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/03/alexis-tsipras-promises-greek-crisis-referendum

Alexis Tsipras talks so much about democracy that one might think the Greek prime minister is a paragon of virtue when it comes to dealing with the voters. This is not the case. For a start, Tsipras has made a series of wild promises that he cannot deliver. Before January's election, he pledged that he would tear up the country's bailout programme while staying in the euro. The two are almost certainly incompatible goals, as the Greek people are now discovering at huge cost.

In advance of Sunday's referendum, he has given further assurances. One is that savers' bank deposits are safe. He also said he will have a deal with Greece's creditors within 48 hours of the plebiscite, if they vote no to the bailout plan. In fact, deposits are at risk and the chance of a deal in two days is virtually nil. A good democrat only promises what he or she can deliver. Tsipras is a demagogue.

Now look at Sunday's referendum. The people have been given eight days to take a decision that will have repercussions for a generation. What's more, the question is convoluted. The people are officially being asked whether to accept or reject an offer made by Greece's creditors on 25 June. They are then referred to two complex documents, which have been translated into Greek from English. One of these was mistranslated to say that the country's debt was unsustainable under all three scenarios considered, whereas it actually said it was unsustainable under only one of the three. The ballot paper also puts "No", Tsipras's favoured option, above "Yes".

[...]

Even worse, it's not at all clear what the two options mean. Yes cannot mean accepting the 25 June offer because it is no longer on the table. In practice, those who vote yes will think they are voting for Europe. And what does no mean? Tsipras says it means giving him stronger negotiating power with the creditors. In fact, it is likely to mean that Greece quits the euro – something he denies.

The Council of Europe, Europe's top human rights institution, told Associated Press this week that the referendum fell short of international standards. Its secretary general, Thorbjørn Jagland, said international standards recommend that a referendum is held with at least two weeks' notice to allow sufficient time for discussion, with a clear question put to the people and with international observers monitoring the vote.

If, despite all this, Tsipras loses the referendum and resigns, there will undoubtedly be a narrative presented that Europe undermined a democratic government because it didn't like the fact that it was so leftwing. The real explanation will be that Tsipras undermined himself with his undeliverable promises, confrontational approach towards creditors, inexperience and inability to read the situation properly.

[Admiral Yi]

The point being, first world families spend to meet needs and desires, and at least the former can be met through significantly reduced spending.

Governments spend to provide services to the population, many of which are critical to the health of the country.

An excellent point.  Another way to phrase this would be to say that families spend to provide services to its members, many of which are critical to their health.  And that governments spend to meet needs and desires, and at least the latter can be met through significantly reduced spending.

Government spending cuts also materially effect aggregate demand, while family spending cuts do not.

If you aggregate them they sure do.
[/quote]

[The Brain]

My impression is that Greece spends a lot on inefficiency, which isn't really awesome.

[alfred russel]

An excellent point.  Another way to phrase this would be to say that families spend to provide services to its members, many of which are critical to their health.  And that governments spend to meet needs and desires, and at least the latter can be met through significantly reduced spending.

Family budgeting discussions are more like, "we can go to a nice steakhouse or go to the movies...which should we do, we can't keep doing both." Or, "we need to decide if we want to buy a really nice house, a really nice car, or maybe save on both and take international vacations every year." Ie, what do we want to do. At least among well off families that aren't facing major crises like major uninsured health care costs.

Government spending decisions are different. Politicians don't sell us on the idea of buying tanks because having lots of tanks is fun. It is sold as meeting a need of the nation, the same as education, public health, infrastructure, etc.

If you aggregate them they sure do.

I don't think your typical family projects the effect of their budgeting decisions on the economy of the nation with assumption that others will behave similarly. Nor should they.

Governments need to consider the impact their fiscal policy will have on aggregate demand.

This is a clear difference between government and family budgeting.

[Monoriu]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/03/alexis-tsipras-promises-greek-crisis-referendum

Alexis Tsipras talks so much about democracy that one might think the Greek prime minister is a paragon of virtue when it comes to dealing with the voters. This is not the case. For a start, Tsipras has made a series of wild promises that he cannot deliver. Before January's election, he pledged that he would tear up the country's bailout programme while staying in the euro. The two are almost certainly incompatible goals, as the Greek people are now discovering at huge cost.

In advance of Sunday's referendum, he has given further assurances. One is that savers' bank deposits are safe. He also said he will have a deal with Greece's creditors within 48 hours of the plebiscite, if they vote no to the bailout plan. In fact, deposits are at risk and the chance of a deal in two days is virtually nil. A good democrat only promises what he or she can deliver. Tsipras is a demagogue.

Now look at Sunday's referendum. The people have been given eight days to take a decision that will have repercussions for a generation. What's more, the question is convoluted. The people are officially being asked whether to accept or reject an offer made by Greece's creditors on 25 June. They are then referred to two complex documents, which have been translated into Greek from English. One of these was mistranslated to say that the country's debt was unsustainable under all three scenarios considered, whereas it actually said it was unsustainable under only one of the three. The ballot paper also puts "No", Tsipras's favoured option, above "Yes".

[...]

Even worse, it's not at all clear what the two options mean. Yes cannot mean accepting the 25 June offer because it is no longer on the table. In practice, those who vote yes will think they are voting for Europe. And what does no mean? Tsipras says it means giving him stronger negotiating power with the creditors. In fact, it is likely to mean that Greece quits the euro – something he denies.

The Council of Europe, Europe's top human rights institution, told Associated Press this week that the referendum fell short of international standards. Its secretary general, Thorbjørn Jagland, said international standards recommend that a referendum is held with at least two weeks' notice to allow sufficient time for discussion, with a clear question put to the people and with international observers monitoring the vote.

If, despite all this, Tsipras loses the referendum and resigns, there will undoubtedly be a narrative presented that Europe undermined a democratic government because it didn't like the fact that it was so leftwing. The real explanation will be that Tsipras undermined himself with his undeliverable promises, confrontational approach towards creditors, inexperience and inability to read the situation properly.

It is grossly irresponsible, not to mention foolish, to have the plebiscite.  It removes any trust left between EU creditors and the Greek government.  It shoves a hugely complex problem at voters at unreasonably short notice.  The Greeks elected him to solve the problem.  Now that he can't solve the problem, he throws the problem back at the voters in way that people can't agree on what they are voting for.  There is a place for plebiscites in a democracy but they aren't supposed to be used in this fashion.

[Grallon]

It is grossly irresponsible, not to mention foolish, to have the plebiscite.  It removes any trust left between EU creditors and the Greek government.  It shoves a hugely complex problem at voters at unreasonably short notice.  The Greeks elected him to solve the problem.  Now that he can't solve the problem, he throws the problem back at the voters in way that people can't agree on what they are voting for.  There is a place for plebiscites in a democracy but they aren't supposed to be used in this fashion.

Democracy isn't contingent on the approval of accountants Mono...  The sovereign people of Greece will decide if they wish to go through with the 'Austerity Program' (TM) or not.  So far 'austerity' has been demonstrated to be beneficial only to the 'banksters' - not the people.  When Jean-Claude Juncker, head of European Commission, speaks of being 'betrayed' - he who as PM of Luxemburg helped large corporations avoid paying their income taxes - it rings false.  The Greeks should default on the entire debt, all 330B (more or less) of it.  That would leave them with some breathing space and *then* they'll have to clean their own house - on their own term.



G.

[Admiral Yi]

How has austerity helped the banksters grallon?

[Martinus]

How has austerity helped the banksters grallon?

Are you really going to go through this shit again? It has been demonstrated over and over that austerity was detrimental to Greek economy and only helped funnel cash out of it so credit banks can be saved from exposure.

[Admiral Yi]

Are you really going to go through this shit again? It has been demonstrated over and over that austerity was detrimental to Greek economy and only helped funnel cash out of it so credit banks can be saved from exposure.

Austerity had nothing to do with banks, since they had already had all their debt bought up by EU sovereigns by the time it started.  But don't let that dampen your outrage.

[citizen k]

"No" means a lot of pain now and recovery later. "Yes" means less pain now but no hope of recovery ever.

[Razgovory]

Mono, you do realize that country budgets are not big household budgets right?

You've raised this point about six times now.  Each time someone asks you how is it different, you disappear, someone else says because households don't have central banks that can monetize debt, you say yeah! yeah! yeah!, someone points out Greece doesn't have a central bank that can monetize this debt, then you disappear again, until you can repeat your point two months later.

Well let's see.  People don't live as long as governments.  When people die the debt must be paid.  Government debts can theoretically last indefinably.  Families can't raise taxes or sell bonds.  A government's debt is often to it's own people.  Households don't normally owe themselves money.  Debt can be quite beneficial to governments, the US took on the debts of it's member states to create credit.  I don't think a household could do this.

The real question (and I believe it was asked last time and someone disappeared), insights does the household analogy grant us?  None that I can see.

[Legbiter]

They'll vote no and become Venezuela I'm afraid.

[Duque de Bragança]

Becoming Venezuela without oil? Also, Venice is not popular in Greece for obvious reasons (Venezuela=little Venice  ).

[Legbiter]

Becoming Venezuela without oil?

Yeah in the sense of the Greeks will vote no, the aftermath of the vote is bungled by Syriza in the usual worst-case way and next month the Greek government will start paying salaries with it's own IOU's. A Venezuelan-style spiral of continual inflation and currency depreciation follows.

Anyone who's young and with half a brain should get out. Probably they already have.