Greek Referendum Poll

[Admiral Yi]

Mono, you do realize that country budgets are not big household budgets right?

You've raised this point about six times now.  Each time someone asks you how is it different, you disappear, someone else says because households don't have central banks that can monetize debt, you say yeah! yeah! yeah!, someone points out Greece doesn't have a central bank that can monetize this debt, then you disappear again, until you can repeat your point two months later.

[Monoriu]

Mono, you do realize that country budgets are not big household budgets right?

If anything, running a national budget requires even more prudence. 

[celedhring]

Mono, you do realize that country budgets are not big household budgets right?

You've raised this point about six times now.  Each time someone asks you how is it different, you disappear, someone else says because households don't have central banks that can monetize debt, you say yeah! yeah! yeah!, someone points out Greece doesn't have a central bank that can monetize this debt, then you disappear again, until you can repeat your point two months later.

Well, the Greeks may well have a central bank now.

I voted no and no. It's still gonna be bad, but the chances of having a relatively acceptable solution to this probably went a few years ago. They need to default or have significant debt restructuring, all this kicking the can down the road is making things worse.

[The Larch]

I'm surprised to see that most of the board thinks that Greece should vote no.

[celedhring]

I'm surprised to see that most of the board thinks that Greece should vote no.

We love watching things burn.

[Martinus]

The best solution for Greece would be an orderly exit from Eurozone. But Troika does not want it, because if (after a very bad 2-3 years) Greece bounces back thanks to becoming internationally competitive again for tourists and labour intensive industries, other PIGS may follow suit.

[Monoriu]

The best solution for Greece would be an orderly exit from Eurozone. But Troika does not want it, because if (after a very bad 2-3 years) Greece bounces back thanks to becoming internationally competitive again for tourists and labour intensive industries, other PIGS may follow suit.

Greece doesn't want it either.  They want everything - stay in Euro, debt relief, no more austerity. 

[Martinus]

The best solution for Greece would be an orderly exit from Eurozone. But Troika does not want it, because if (after a very bad 2-3 years) Greece bounces back thanks to becoming internationally competitive again for tourists and labour intensive industries, other PIGS may follow suit.

Greece doesn't want it either.  They want everything - stay in Euro, debt relief, no more austerity.

That's right. Each side is playing hardball and standing by a position that is, ultimately, unacceptable to the other side. It is exactly a Greek tragedy (no pun intended) - two irreconceivable fundamental principles.

Troika wants more austerity - Greeks simply cannot accept it as contrary to the picture of lazy and well off Greeks, painted in nazi-antisemitic-propaganda-style tabloids, 25% of Greeks are without job, with the number being closer to 50% among the young; and 45% of pensioners receive less than the social minimum in pensions.

Greeks want debt reduction and an aid programme - Troika cannot accept it because this would simply cause Spaniards and Portuguese to line up for similar treatment (after they have elected Syriza-like parties in their countries).

[The Larch]

Greeks want debt reduction and an aid programme - Troika cannot accept it because this would simply cause Spaniards and Portuguese to line up for similar treatment (after they have elected Syriza-like parties in their countries).

That's not a good analysis, IMO. Portugal has no Syriza-like party around and Podemos in Spain has shown that they're not strong enough to carry a national election on their own, so nobody is going to demand a similar treatment if Greece gets its bailout conditions eased.

I mean, even the IMF has come out clean about their previous analysis being crap and debt reduction being basically essential for Greece's future financial wellbeing. Even with plenty of preferential treatment Greece is going to stay in the financial ER for a very long time. This is not something that is going to be solved easily and in a few years.

[Monoriu]

That's not a good analysis, IMO. Portugal has no Syriza-like party around and Podemos in Spain has shown that they're not strong enough to carry a national election on their own, so nobody is going to demand a similar treatment if Greece gets its bailout conditions eased.

In 2008, people probably said the same thing about Syriza.  Now they are in power. 

[The Larch]

That's not a good analysis, IMO. Portugal has no Syriza-like party around and Podemos in Spain has shown that they're not strong enough to carry a national election on their own, so nobody is going to demand a similar treatment if Greece gets its bailout conditions eased.

In 2008, people probably said the same thing about Syriza.  Now they are in power.

I doubt they look that far ahead, but it has been clear that some EU governments have been going at it against Syriza to hit their national opposition parties by proxy. Spain (which was described in a woefully naive way by some analists as a potential ally for Greece in these negotiations) is very committed to not giving Greece the time of day as a way to be able to paint Podemos with the brush of innefective radicals that would push the country into bankruptcy.

[alfred russel]

Mono, you do realize that country budgets are not big household budgets right?

You've raised this point about six times now.  Each time someone asks you how is it different, you disappear, someone else says because households don't have central banks that can monetize debt, you say yeah! yeah! yeah!, someone points out Greece doesn't have a central bank that can monetize this debt, then you disappear again, until you can repeat your point two months later.

It still doesnt work. If you compare relatively affluent greece to an affluent family, greece needs to spend money on roads and the family on food. If they both have their budgets halved, the family can eat out less, buy cheaper foods, etc. They can still meet their needs.

In theory a country can halve their spending on roads. I dont know the quality of the road system in greece, but here i imagine the impact would be a disaster. I would imagine the economic impact would far exceed any savings. Even the government may not be financially better off as the economic impact of a crumbling road network and laid off workers would impact tax revenue.

[Admiral Yi]

It still doesnt work. If you compare relatively affluent greece to an affluent family, greece needs to spend money on roads and the family on food. If they both have their budgets halved, the family can eat out less, buy cheaper foods, etc. They can still meet their needs.

In theory a country can halve their spending on roads. I dont know the quality of the road system in greece, but here i imagine the impact would be a disaster. I would imagine the economic impact would far exceed any savings. Even the government may not be financially better off as the economic impact of a crumbling road network and laid off workers would impact tax revenue.

Even accepting your logic, countries spend money on things besides roads, and households spend money on things besides food.

[crazy canuck]

Mono, you do realize that country budgets are not big household budgets right?

You've raised this point about six times now.  Each time someone asks you how is it different, you disappear, someone else says because households don't have central banks that can monetize debt, you say yeah! yeah! yeah!, someone points out Greece doesn't have a central bank that can monetize this debt, then you disappear again, until you can repeat your point two months later.

Well, the Greeks may well have a central bank now.

I voted no and no. It's still gonna be bad, but the chances of having a relatively acceptable solution to this probably went a few years ago. They need to default or have significant debt restructuring, all this kicking the can down the road is making things worse.

They might but the media is reporting that there is strong support in Greece for staying with the Euro.  Its a sort of have their cake and eat it too problem.

[alfred russel]

It still doesnt work. If you compare relatively affluent greece to an affluent family, greece needs to spend money on roads and the family on food. If they both have their budgets halved, the family can eat out less, buy cheaper foods, etc. They can still meet their needs.

In theory a country can halve their spending on roads. I dont know the quality of the road system in greece, but here i imagine the impact would be a disaster. I would imagine the economic impact would far exceed any savings. Even the government may not be financially better off as the economic impact of a crumbling road network and laid off workers would impact tax revenue.

Even accepting your logic, countries spend money on things besides roads, and households spend money on things besides food.

The point being, first world families spend to meet needs and desires, and at least the former can be met through significantly reduced spending.

Governments spend to provide services to the population, many of which are critical to the health of the country.

Government spending cuts also materially effect aggregate demand, while family spending cuts do not.