The Boy Who Cried Robot: A World Without Work

[FunkMonk]

I think people worry too much.  Robots will improve human welfare immensely.  Doctors who get the diagnosis rught.  Drivers that get into accidents less often.  Restaurant ordering systems that are ready all the time instead of waiters who always too busy, delivery robots that actually deliver stuff rather than lying about deliveries that didn't make.  The world will be a better place.

Yes, it will be a massive improvement in many ways.

In terms of policy I think we need to look at education and re-training. Many jobs will be lost and the redundant workforce will not match the new jobs created very well. There needs to be a generosity of spirit towards those who are retraining and an acceptance that, say, a 45-year-old, might go back to college and receive public support whilst gaining new skills.

Please provide a list of useful skills in an automated economy.  Bonus points if they're skills you can plausibly learn in adulthood.

We're gonna see a lot more Trumps in the future, that's for sure.

[Monoriu]

Please provide a list of useful skills in an automated economy.  Bonus points if they're skills you can plausibly learn in adulthood.

I imagine we won't go to a fully automated economy overnight.  It is going to be a somewhat gradual shift.  We'll still need people to design, maintain, fix and replace the robots and software.  You can argue that those processes will be automated too, but humanity isn't quite there yet.  A lot of customer-facing jobs will still be done by humans, simply because a lot of people still prefer human interaction.  There are ATMs everywhere but there are still bank tellers and financial sales staff.  Restaurants won't go away and even if they automate the ordering part, they still need people to bring the food and clear the tables.  Kitchens will employ a lot of people for the time being. 

[Richard Hakluyt]

Broadly speaking I expect that there will be an increase in jobs related to looking after, entertaining, educating, assisting and caring for other people. Some people will suffer, much as the handloom weavers did back in the day.

I think capitalism will struggle to provide these improvements.......it is struggling right now. The question is how do we recycle the wealth (at least part of it) back to consumers so that the new jobs can be created by their demand?

[Valmy]

I think capitalism will struggle to provide these improvements.......it is struggling right now. The question is how do we recycle the wealth (at least part of it) back to consumers so that the new jobs can be created by their demand?

Negative taxation?

I guess I am having a hard time figuring out how I position me and my family in a position to win in this future robot economy. I guess open a robot repair facility?

[DGuller]

I'm less concerned about the economic implication of the robot economy as I am about the emotional implications.  One of the key components of human happiness is being needed.  I don't think that component is going to be satisfied by exploring your artsy fartsy side while collecting basic income.

[Berkut]

I'm less concerned about the economic implication of the robot economy as I am about the emotional implications.  One of the key components of human happiness is being needed.  I don't think that component is going to be satisfied by exploring your artsy fartsy side while collecting basic income.

Yeah, we have several millions of years of evolution driving our concepts of happiness and self worth to being linked with providing some kind of material need for ourselves and others.

I am not sure we are programmed to function or flourish in a world the is missing the one thing that has basically driven our biology as long as life has existed - scarcity.

[Valmy]

A vision of the future!

[The Minsky Moment]

Yeah, we have several millions of years of evolution driving our concepts of happiness and self worth to being linked with providing some kind of material need for ourselves and others.

That's not really true though - the modern notion of linking self-worth to formal employment is a creation of bourgeois ideology - and didn't really take root into well into the 19th century in Europe (earlier in the USA).

[Valmy]

Yeah I was about to say. For the South NOT working was the sign you really made it for generations 

[MadImmortalMan]

I guess I am having a hard time figuring out how I position me and my family in a position to win in this future robot economy. I guess open a robot repair facility?

I'm guessing since robots can't make more land, then that's the way to go. I wish I'd bought a big ranch or something. 

[Berkut]

Yeah I was about to say. For the South NOT working was the sign you really made it for generations 

I am not talking about biology, not culture.

Even in cultures where the ability to "now work" was seen as success, those that did that would by and large still be doing something productive. They were managing estates, handling servants and/or employees, being involved in government or the clergy.

I am sure some of the lounged about, but I suspect that if you went around and polkled the upper class in those times (say those who had enough family wealth to support truly doing nothing if they wished) there was a clear link between their happiness and their ability to find some kind of meaningful activity.

Hence the involvement in government, or the military, or charitable work, etc., etc.

That all worked well when it was a small percentage of the population only that needed such distraction. They did things that often had little or no direct remuneration, and if some of them wasted their lives away drunk and indolent, it was tolerable to society at large.

[Jacob]

Looks like the manufacturing jobs in China are being replaced by Chinese robots: http://www.businessinsider.com/bernstein-china-robots-and-the-end-of-adam-smiths-wealth-of-nations-2016-12

One argument in the article is that if Trump does use the (blunt) tools available to return manufacturing to the US, they'll likely be done by robots as well.

[The Brain]

Berkut's koans help me towards enlightenment.

[Berkut]

Looks like the manufacturing jobs in China are being replaced by Chinese robots: http://www.businessinsider.com/bernstein-china-robots-and-the-end-of-adam-smiths-wealth-of-nations-2016-12

One argument in the article is that if Trump does use the (blunt) tools available to return manufacturing to the US, they'll likely be done by robots as well.

That goes without saying, I suspect.

Employing human beings at middle class American wages is just not economically rational for large scale manufacturing. Skilled labor, sure, in relatively small numbers.

I think manufacturing work will in fact come back to the US over time as the cost of other countries labor rises. It doesn't seem to me that robots in China will be meaningfully cheaper than robots in the US in the long run.

[frunk]

I've generally been happiest when I've been busy with things that aren't work.  So keep busy yes, work no.