Europe's Populist Left

[Zanza]

Very, very few of their proposals so far necessarily involve increasing public spending and people are prepared that they may renege on some.

Most of the policies you outlined above necessitate public spending. Who else will be paying for more state employees, higher pensions or better healthcare?

[Zanza]

Why would anybody even waste time negotiating with him then if the concept of external obligations doesn't even exist for this Greek government? 

As Pierre Moscovici put it, if elections don't change anything then what's the point?

You can win an election and still acknowledge the fact that you have both domestic and foreign obligations.

[Sheilbh]

Hmm, so because tax revenues are lower than they should be, they just abolish the tax that isn't paid? I wouldn't expect a positive effect on tax revenue from that.

The property tax is paid. It's the one that's hated because the government collect it through the electricity companies. So if you don't pay, you get cut off.

Frankly it sounds like tax farming to me, but there you go. I'm sure it was a good idea on the Troika's powerpoint.

A couple of journalists have noted how upbeat all the Greek government are sounding today. They're now starting to say maybe they know something we don't

Some are even betting that there'll be no formal deal immediately but the two sides are now moving a little closer.

He is right about that. Greece is still a wealthy country and there is no need for this suffering. However, that is a domestic distribution problem, not something where anybody but the Greeks can fix anything.

They're not that wealthy. Poorer than all of Western Europe and increasing parts of Eastern Europe.

[Zanza]

To limit fallout from this default, Greece will be allowed to stay in the Euro nevertheless.

Yeah. I do struggle with Grexit because it's a decision that can only be made by Draghi. I'm not convinced that he'd get rid of the irreversibility of the Euro or that he'd make that big a political choice without extraordinary circumstances. I get why and how it might happen. I'm just really not sure that the ECB would do it.

And we already have a precedent of a Euro member with capital controls in Cyprus.

There is nothing the EU or ECB or Greece could gain from a Grexit. So why should it happen?
However, a lot of parties can benefit from a debt reduction. Tsripas could show that he is a strong politician and acts in the Greek sovereign interest by defaulting on their obligations. The other EU politicians wouldn't have to sell this to their electorates. The parties that lose money are all far away from private citizens and fairly abstract. No one gives a shit about the balance sheet of the ECB or EFSF or whatever.

[Zanza]

They're not that wealthy. Poorer than all of Western Europe and increasing parts of Eastern Europe.

They are definitely wealthy enough to provide food to all Greeks. If they can't do that, it's a domestic distribution problem.

[Sheilbh]

Very, very few of their proposals so far necessarily involve increasing public spending and people are prepared that they may renege on some.

Most of the policies you outlined above necessitate public spending. Who else will be paying for more state employees, higher pensions or better healthcare?

The previous government had already agreed to increase state employment this year. Instead of new hires they're going to re-hire those unfairly/unjustly fired - so the costs already covered.

There'll be a thirteenth month for pensioners on a pension of less than €700. I don't know how many that is but I'd be surprised if it's an enormous amount that's involved.

The new health insurance plan is one that interests me because he explicitly linked it (and social insurance) with natural resource exploitation. And one word he didn't mention last night was Skouries (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skouries_mine). I wonder if they're maybe planning to use revenue from natural resources, like that directly into social insurance funds rather than general revenue.

[Sheilbh]

Why would anybody even waste time negotiating with him then if the concept of external obligations doesn't even exist for this Greek government? 

As Pierre Moscovici put it, if elections don't change anything then what's the point?

You can win an election and still acknowledge the fact that you have both domestic and foreign obligations.

If your domestic and foreign obligations cover all of fiscal, labour and economic policy, what can you change?

It seems to me that the SNP in Holyrood have more room for manoeuvre than a new Greek government.

There is nothing the EU or ECB or Greece could gain from a Grexit. So why should it happen?

I think the worry that this would happen again. Is a Eurozone that's moved to de facto fiscal transfers better than Grexit?

However, a lot of parties can benefit from a debt reduction. Tsripas could show that he is a strong politician and acts in the Greek sovereign interest by defaulting on their obligations. The other EU politicians wouldn't have to sell this to their electorates. The parties that lose money are all far away from private citizens and fairly abstract. No one gives a shit about the balance sheet of the ECB or EFSF or whatever.

So why not negotiate a deal and get something back?

They are definitely wealthy enough to provide food to all Greeks. If they can't do that, it's a domestic distribution problem.

Not least that the entire weight of austerity has been placed on the shoulder of normal Greeks. Not those who evade their taxes and benefit from the corruption. As I say if they really do successfully take them on and succeed in even half their measures, that's a great result for Greece and Europe.

[Martinus]

As Pierre Moscovici put it, if elections don't change anything then what's the point?

Freedom should not equal solipsism. Past choices limit our future choices.

[Martinus]

They're not that wealthy. Poorer than all of Western Europe and increasing parts of Eastern Europe.

Their GDP per capita is comparable with that of Poland. Their minimum wage (which they still want to increase) is 150% that of Poland.

[Duque de Bragança]

As Pierre Moscovici put it, if elections don't change anything then what's the point?

Moscovici  A PS apparatchik sent to Brussels to do less damage there, only good for a having a wive younger than Ed's "woman" (30 years less than Mosco). 

[Sheilbh]

Is there anyone in the PS you don't dislike?

Valls? Lang?

[Duque de Bragança]

Is there anyone in the PS you don't dislike?

Valls? Lang?

Valls?  He's just a cheap imitation of Sarkozy, but a PS version. He's also a history graduate who claims there is apartheid in France...
Lang? Out of the game, same goes for Rocard, the latter being as decent as you can hope for the PS.

[Eddie Teach]

Their GDP per capita is comparable with that of Poland. Their minimum wage (which they still want to increase) is 150% that of Poland.

$400/month sounds awfully low.

[Martinus]

Their GDP per capita is comparable with that of Poland. Their minimum wage (which they still want to increase) is 150% that of Poland.

$400/month sounds awfully low.

And yet we have people (like Tamas's idol) who argue this is too high and should be done away with.

[alfred russel]

Their GDP per capita is comparable with that of Poland. Their minimum wage (which they still want to increase) is 150% that of Poland.

$400/month sounds awfully low.

Poland is probably low because minimum wages are a bit "sticky" and Poland is catching up to Western Europe so fast. Also, Poland is having success with neo liberal economics, but Greece not so much.

I just went to check Marty's numbers--I doubted he was correct on the Greece/Poland comparison. It turns out Poland is actually ahead of Greece on the PPP standard, but well behind Greece on the nominal standard. Which is an interesting highlight--even in this time of severe crisis for Greece, it is the country with the overvalued currency.