NFL Postseason Megathread: Playoffs in the Post-Orton Era

[alfred russel]

MBM: I think you don't see what a big impact officials can have on games. I'd love to see the win probability differences based on whether that was called/not called--I bet it is significant.

Use the analogy of a high jump. A guy needs to climb 6 ft. to win. The official sets the bar at 6 ft. 6in by mistake. The guy fails to clear the bar, though he came close.

Yes you can say, "champions overcome poor officiating, he still had a chance."

You you are correct--by definition champions succeed in winning. And yes, he still did have a chance. And no, you can't prove that the officials were decisive. But the guy still has every reason to be upset, and the competition is tainted.

[Neil]

I think that was CdM who was suspecting the refs of Steeler assistance.  The only call they made that annoyed me was the helmet-to-helmet call when a defender went low on an RB who caught the ball and lowered his head.  I feel like the idea of a strike zone is meaningless if the only thing you can do is dive at their ankles and knees.

[MadBurgerMaker]

This wasn't an overturned touchdown, it didn't give Dallas any points.  Detroit still had the lead and the ball in Cowboys territory.  Even after they fucked it all up and shanked the punt, then gave up a TD, they STILL got the ball back. 

And fumbled it.  Twice.  All the picked up DPI flag is is an excuse. 

E:  As to the high jump thing:  We're talking about something that isn't easily measured or corrected like that.  We're talking about shit like offensive facemask (and it was a facemask, let's be clear here.  You can easily see it in the other camera angles they showed), DPI, OPI, dumbass Dez being on the field, holding, etc.

[MadBurgerMaker]

I think that was CdM who was suspecting the refs of Steeler assistance.  The only call they made that annoyed me was the helmet-to-helmet call when a defender went low on an RB who caught the ball and lowered his head.  I feel like the idea of a strike zone is meaningless if the only thing you can do is dive at their ankles and knees.

I didn't see that particular one, but I think I've seen something similar with a WR (Welker?  Seems like it was him) ducking his head and getting a H-to-H call.  Shit's messed up for defenses. 

E:  The QB protection rules have gotten a little wonky too.

[alfred russel]

This wasn't an overturned touchdown, it didn't give Dallas any points.  Detroit still had the lead and the ball in Cowboys territory.  Even after they fucked it all up and shanked the punt, then gave up a TD, they STILL got the ball back. 

And fumbled it.  Twice.

They lost by 4, and had that penalty been called Detroit would have had the ball in scoring position with a first down rather than giving the ball to Dallas who used their ill gotten possession to score the go ahead points.

The test of the Lions wasn't to play a perfect football game or take advantage of all their opportunities. It was only to be better than the Cowboys.

[MadBurgerMaker]

The test of the Lions wasn't to play a perfect football game or take advantage of all their opportunities. It was only to be better than the Cowboys.

Correct.  They weren't. 

Green Bay will be though.  Hopefully.

[alfred russel]

Barry Church of the Cowboys on the pass interference called back: "I would have called it if I was the ref."

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/1/4/7492223/cowboys-lions-pass-interference-flag-reactions

[MadBurgerMaker]

He probably also would have called roughing the kicker.  See how that works? 

The Lions would have probably turned it over anyway, so fuck them.

E:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBv9VMAuVrY   

Inadvertently hit the facemask, my ass.  At best, if they were going to call something (LB holding), that should have been offsetting so Detroit would have been busy screwing up on another play instead of....well screwing up right then.

[Grey Fox]

The refs are part of the game just like that wind that threw a kick ball 15 yards to the left and that shoe lace that broke after Suh stumped on it.

Live with the decisions, you can never change them.

[alfred russel]

So Advanced Football Analytics has the numbers crunched.

Had the call stood, Detroit would have had a 0.794 win probability. After it was overturned, the win probability fell to 0.672.

That is a very significant change. One of the most important plays of the game.

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/analysis/game-analysis/210-how-much-did-the-reversed-penalty-affect-the-lions-cowboys-game

[Admiral Yi]

The refs are part of the game just like that wind that threw a kick ball 15 yards to the left and that shoe lace that broke after Suh stumped on it.

Live with the decisions, you can never change them.

Bitching about blown calls is one of the best parts about watching sports.

[MadBurgerMaker]

   Look at what the punt did to their odds of winning. "Punt."  The 10 yard thing after they took an intentional delay of game. 

E:  There's a live link for it:  http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/tools/live-wp-graph/index.php?gameid1=2015010401

E2: Also the 21 yard reception by Witten on 4th and 6.   

Actually, on their live graph, it went from .79 to .69.  The punt took them from .69 to .58.  The pass went from .75 to .56.

[alfred russel]

  Look at what the punt did to their odds of winning. "Punt."  The 10 yard thing after they took an intentional delay of game.  Looks like that was an even bigger deal.

Well yeah, punting on its own was a stupid idea on the plus side of the field with a 4th and 1. The analysis probably assumed the team would go for it. Then you only punt 10 yards.

When the flag was thrown and called, an astute Lions fan would have know he had about an 80% chance of winning. The game wasn't locked up, but it was almost there. But then after the very next play, the percentage fell to ~50%--a toss up. Even for a veteran of disappointment like most Lions fans, that had to be discouraging.

[MadBurgerMaker]

  Look at what the punt did to their odds of winning. "Punt."  The 10 yard thing after they took an intentional delay of game.  Looks like that was an even bigger deal.

Well yeah, punting on its own was a stupid idea on the plus side of the field with a 4th and 1. The analysis probably assumed the team would go for it. Then you only punt 10 yards.

When the flag was thrown and called, an astute Lions fan would have know he had about an 80% chance of winning. The game wasn't locked up, but it was almost there. But then after the very next play, the percentage fell to ~50%--a toss up. Even for a veteran of disappointment like most Lions fans, that had to be discouraging.

~50%?  Mer?  Am I looking at something wrong here? The percentage fell to 69% according to their graph.  Then 58% after the punt. 

[Neil]

The punt is Caldwell though.  There's a reason he got fired last time he was a head coach.  They guy just has no drive to win.