NCAA Basketball 2014-2015 (This may help ease the pain)

[Admiral Yi]

I think the only way to beat KU is close your eyes, hoist it from midcourt and hope every shot drops.

[derspiess]

Big mistake IMO.  Everyone is really playing for 2nd place.  KU is untouchable this year.

You're a more experienced wagerer than I am, but my rationale is that the pool will be heavily skewed (I said 90-95% which may be an exaggeration but only slight) towards a team that has a 50% chance (based on them having even odds) of winning it all. That basically means if I win that coin flip (i.e., UK loses at some point) then I have a much easier pool to compete against. 

[Valmy]

I think the only way to beat KU is close your eyes, hoist it from midcourt and hope every shot drops.

Well lets not go too crazy. The SEC sucks ass at basketball so it may not be an accurate display of Kentucky's might.

But on the other hand I think about what they did to Kansas.

[derspiess]

I think if they run this tournament 100 times, Kentucky wins it 90 times. But maybe this time will be one of those 10 times. But I am not putting any money on that.

Vegas says it would be 50 times.  Which is still pretty insane as Berkut said.

[Admiral Yi]

You're a more experienced wagerer than I am, but my rationale is that the pool will be heavily skewed (I said 90-95% which may be an exaggeration but only slight) towards a team that has a 50% chance (based on them having even odds) of winning it all. That basically means if I win that coin flip (i.e., UK loses at some point) then I have a much easier pool to compete against.

But you're not picking the entire field vs. KU, you're picking individual teams.  Those teams have an infinitessimally small chance of winning their games as compared to KU's chances.

[frunk]

But you're not picking the entire field vs. KU, you're picking individual teams.  Those teams have an infinitessimally small chance of winning their games as compared to KU's chances.

I think it depends on how big the pool of picks is, and how well you can make picks.  The bigger the pool, the worse you are at picking, the better off you are going for the oddball result, since there's a greater chance that someone will get the non-KU picks better than you.

[derspiess]

Right.  But with such a highly skewed pool there is an opportunity to be the only one picking the winner.  With nearly everyone picking UK, me picking a team like Duke or Wisconsin ( both of which are 6-1 odds to win it all), would seem like a good strategy if I know I have a good chance at being the only one choosing one or the other. 

Plus, it's way more fun for me to root against UK than to hope I win the final score tiebreaker

Also I saw where Arizona is only 15-1 to go all the way, so I may have to switch to a team with better odds.

[Admiral Yi]

Duke is at 6-1?  I thought they were slumping.

[derspiess]

Duke is at 6-1?  I thought they were slumping.

They were 12-1 in their last 13.  One could say they had a mini-slump in January but they shook it off.

[Berkut]

Also I saw where Arizona is only 15-1 to go all the way, so I may have to switch to a team with better odds.

I found that rather puzzling - why would Arizona have so much worse odds than Wisconsin, since they are both in the same bracket, and so far as I know, there isn't really much of a consensus that Wisconsin is a clearly better team...?

[Admiral Yi]

They were 12-1 in their last 13.  One could say they had a mini-slump in January but they shook it off.

I guess I just spazzed on the fact they didn't make the ACC tourney final.

[Valmy]

http://www.indystar.com/story/sports/columnists/gregg-doyel/2015/03/15/doyel-a-mind-blowing-5-minutes-of-the-ncaa-tournament/24825549/?hootPostID=%5B%22%5B%27250fbe7a5f162bef2adf246ec093efac%27%5D%22%5D

Butler got the best and worst kind of matchup. The good? Chris Holtmann is a better coach than Texas' Rick Barnes. Listen, Barnes is a wonderful recruiter and he produces some of the strongest, toughest, most physical teams in the country. But Rick Barnes is a strength-and-conditioning coach. Chris Holtmann is a basketball coach. There is a difference, and you'll see that difference Thursday in Pittsburgh when Texas looks so physically and athletically superior, and yet Butler looks like it actually knows what to do. Does that mean Butler wins? Tough call. Texas is awfully muscular, but Rick Barnes is awfully awful. Coin flip.

Freaking Indiana sportswriters can see it, why can't our AD?

[katmai]

I'll set up the bracket for you shortly.

[katmai]

I'll set up the bracket for you shortly.

And it's been created.
trying to figure out how to send invites to all who didn't participate last year.
our pool ID# is 143319
pass word is Wyowho?

[derspiess]

I'm in.  Looking to add to my 2006, 2010, and 2012 titles.