Was the American Civil War inevitible?

[Warspite]

Do you have any proof of this?  Can you prove that officers used terrain more in the Civil war then the War of 1812 or the Mexican American war?  If what you say is true one would expect the casualty rates to be higher in the beginning of the war and decrease as the war went on (as officers learned the dangers of the new rifles), do you have evidence of this actually happening?  Do you know what the typical range of fire was in the civil war compared to the War of 1812 and the Mexican American war?  You make a lot of assumptions about what officers did, but no real evidence to back them up.

I can say that the military debate in the mid-19th century was rich with discussion about the effects of the rifle on field operations - see for example https://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/030204_Tyler.pdf.

[grumbler]

You know what, you are right. The evidence clearly shows that rifles made no difference, and really, they should have all just kept using muskets. Or maybe pikes.

Silly me for arguing with Raz. Back to ignore.

I was going to say "that took longer than it should have." Just leave him on your "do not respond" list.

[LaCroix]

the '42 smoothbore musket was better at close range than springfields, if the smoothbore was loaded with buck and ball. but we're talking about less than 100 yards.

at 100 yards, springfield could hit with 96% accuracy; smoothbore (normal shot) -- 74%; smoothbore (buckshot) -- 52%.

at 200 yards, these numbers drop to 74%, 36% and 20%.

at 300 yards, 46%, 14%, and 0% buckshot.

(edit) these figures come from contemporary shooting ranges, though. raz did hit on one thing -- soldiers weren't drilled in live ammunition training before they were sent off to war. but, the numbers for all the guns would drop, and there would be a greater chance of a rookie hitting something at 200 yards with a springfield than with a smoothbore.

[The Minsky Moment]

Use if "is" increased during the Civil War - means the issue became relevant then.

Sure it became relevant.  But despite becoming relevant there was only a relatively small increase of usage and then that trend reversed in the 1870s.
Which directly contradicts Foote's claim that before the War, everyone said "are" and after the war everyone said "is".  That claim is just wrong, no quibbling about it.

Would not the year 1900 be about the time when the generation that was born right after the war/were just kids during it was now being old enough to give court opinions?

No not really.  The people on the Supreme Court in the 1890s were around the same age as the people on the Court in the 1900s.  In fact in many cases there were the SAME people: Fuller, Brewer, Harlan, and (in part) Brown and Peckham.   Other than Field (on the Court forever), the Justices on the Court in 1895 had been born in the years 1828-1845.  The Justices on the Court in 1905 were born in the years 1833-1849.  Notice the strong overlap.  And age is no predictor of usage - one of the strongest "is" users was Harlan, who was the second oldest justice on the 1905 court (Fuller was a few months older).

As I indicated my post, the sharp shift in 1900 was noticed and remarked upon at the time.  No doubt it is true that the historical experience of the Civil War was contributing factor, but a true understanding of the linguistic shift requires focusing on later developments.

[The Minsky Moment]

I recommend further research.

Not a bad idea, actually.
Becuase we are having a heated argument over a "study" which appears not in fact to be a study - at least there is no indication at all where the estimates come from, how they were made, or what samples were used to generate them. 

[The Brain]

I recommend further research.

Not a bad idea, actually.
Becuase we are having a heated argument over a "study" which appears not in fact to be a study - at least there is no indication at all where the estimates come from, how they were made, or what samples were used to generate them.

I suggest we start with flash mobs.

[derspiess]

A Civil War-themed flash mob would be cool.

[grumbler]

A Civil War-themed flash mob would be cool.

Jeff Davis didn't think so.

[CountDeMoney]

A Civil War-themed flash mob would be cool.

Jeff Davis didn't think so.

ROFLeggnog.

[derspiess]

They never did hang him from that sour apple tree

[The Brain]

Catchy.