Dispatches from the State Ministry of Truth

[DGuller]

I have been hearing this for the last 25 years, ever since Tian An Men.  The past 25 years have been some of the most peaceful and prosperous times in recent Chinese history.

So even the people of HK, with access to the internet, think that China has been peaceful for the last 25 years?  I mean, i suppose you could argue that it has been more peaceful than it was during the civil wars, the war with Japan, the Great Leap Forward into the Grave, and the Anticultural Revolution, but that's not much of a bar.  Rural China over the last 25 years has been more like rural Congo than rural Canada.

The point I was trying to make was that I keep hearing people say that the communist in regime in China can go at any moment, but I am not holding my breath.  The communists are clever and I think they have learnt the right lessons from the fall of other communist regimes. 

First of all, they have developed a succession mechanism.  It is now expected that the #1 in the party and the majority of the politburo standing committee will serve for 10 years only, and no more.  The next #1 will serve as an apprentice of sorts halfway into the 10 year period.  So there is steady, relatively transparent succession.  There is also an age limit for membership in the politburo standing committee to ensure that the old guard leave their posts before they die. I may be wrong on the specifics, but it is something like "no one above the age of 67 may be appointed onto the committee, and no one above that age may be reappointed". 

Second, they have concluded that Gorbachev destroyed communism in Russia, and they are determined not to make the same mistake.  The most significant long-term impact of Tian An Men 1989 was that the political reform wing of the Chinese communist party was entirely wiped out.  And it isn't making a return. 

I have met many "new immigrants" to HK who have just arrived from the mainland.  Guess what, they don't hate the communists.  They know it isn't perfect, and they know about the corruption.  But life is reasonably good, and even the government isn't too bad.  At least it does well in maintaining stability, creating jobs, dealing with natural disasters, keeping the economy afloat etc.  It can be a lot better, of course, but we aren't talking about North Korea or Burma level of total disregard of the population.

Good, informative post.  It's a shame that such posts are an exception, and trolling about "rioters" blocking the sacred roads is the norm. 

[Monoriu]

Mono, I know you've got a massive hard-on for the way the police have been clearing out the demonstrators, but you've got to realize it's a coin-flip: on one hand, the group could see reason and disband, maybe with more grumbling than before about the perceived puppet government not representing their interests at all.

On the other hand, if these students are as desperate as you say they are, the violence shown toward their nonviolence might just spark real riots.  You know, actual vandalism and assault (not just a few thrown punches).

I read a lot of western media reports on this, and one thing that shocked me is that they do not understand the underlying politics in HK at all.  They keep saying the government should talk to them and reach a compromise etc.

There is no room for compromise.  None. 

What they demand is democracy.  Beijing give us a lot of things.  Favourable economic policy, opportunity for our workers to work up there (but not the other way round), millions of tourists, and they are willing to let us retain our freedom and right to run our own affairs.  Everything, except democracy.  It is like demanding from a tiger its own skin.  They will not give in.

If the the rioters resort to physical violence, then so be it.  It is their choice, and we can't help it.  The police will fire live shots if necessary.  If that fails, the PLA tanks are already stationed here. 

[Razgovory]

I guess road to serfdom applies here quite well.

For Mono and apparently most of the rest of HK it is an inconceivable concept to assure their livelihood without the state handing it to them.

Sad, really.

I would have thought you would be more supportive since his reasons neatly mirror your own.  Mono has stated he opposes them because they want to create an extensive welfare state so they can rob the more productive members of society.  The protests are an example of the "vile populism" that you were talking about earlier.

[Monoriu]

Perhaps you guys aren't familiar with some of HK's history, and this is important to understand why the rioters will not back down and there is no room for compromise.

In short, they've been duped for 30 years. 

Back in the early 80s, there was general panic when the communists made it clear that they intend to take back HK.  The memory of the Cultural revolution was still fresh.  The British and Chinese governments largely convinced people to stay with a lot of major promises, One Country Two Systems, we run our own affairs, etc. 

One of the pillars for confidence was democracy.  The demcorats believed that the handover would be ok if HKers could elect our own government.  The Chinese response was, ok, you can have your democracy, but it will take time.  The Basic Law was published, and it contained very specific provisions on how to elect the Chief Executive and legislature, up to 2007/08.  The Basic Law is silent on what happens in 2007 and 2008, and beyond.

The democrats took it to mean that they can have their universal suffrage then. 

In 2004 or 05 or so, the communists again announced very specific, less than universal suffrage rules on how to elect the Chief Executive and legislature between 2007 and 2017.  They said there would be universal suffrage in 2017.  And the democrats bought it once again. 

6 weeks ago, Beijing said universal suffrage means that the candidates would be vetted.  To the democrats, they feel that the end game that they have fought for for 30 years is a farce.  They've been duped for 30 years. 

They.  Will.  Not.  Back.  Down.  Not this time.  In a way, I think this is a mental journey that they need to go through.  That they have done everything humanly possible to fight for it.  There is no room for compromise.  This is the result of 30 years of dialogue and fights, not a spur of the moment thing. 

[Tonitrus]

It could be said that buying the idea that HK would have democratic institutions in the long run, at the benevolent blessing of the PRC, is a sucker's bet...and that they should have left 20 years ago to Canada (as many have).

Like others, I support the sentiment of the democracy supporters, but there is no illusion they would ever successful.  When push comes to shove, the PRC shoves with Type-59s (tho probably Type-99s these days).

[Monoriu]

It could be said that buying the idea that HK would have democratic institutions in the long run, at the benevolent blessing of the PRC, is a sucker's bet...and that they should have left 20 years ago to Canada (as many have).

Like others, I support the sentiment of the democracy supporters, but there is no illusion they would ever successful.  When push comes to shove, the PRC shoves with Type-59s (tho probably Type-99s these days).

We can survive without democracy  I myself never believed for a moment that there would be democracy in HK.  That's fine by me, and a lot of others.  It is a nice-to-have, not a must.  There is even an upside, that we avoid a welfare state.  Even without democracy, we will have good governance.  In the end, what decides the matter of whether we stay in HK or Canada isn't democracy, but jobs.  The fact is, a lot of those who have left for Canada have come back. 

[DontSayBanana]

If the the rioters resort to physical violence, then so be it.  It is their choice, and we can't help it.  The police will fire live shots if necessary.  If that fails, the PLA tanks are already stationed here. 

A government that thinks its legitimate use of force extends to violently putting down civil unrest?  Where have we heard that before?  Oh right, ask Bashar al-Assad how well that's worked in Syria.  Or Gaddafi in Libya.

Just saying, Mono, historically, regimes that use physical violence on their citizens tend to be taken down in a rather bloody manner, and usually it's at the hand of the same citizens they've tried to quell.  Consider that for a moment before skipping down the street and singing about how the PLA tanks are coming.

[Monoriu]

If the the rioters resort to physical violence, then so be it.  It is their choice, and we can't help it.  The police will fire live shots if necessary.  If that fails, the PLA tanks are already stationed here. 

A government that thinks its legitimate use of force extends to violently putting down civil unrest?  Where have we heard that before?  Oh right, ask Bashar al-Assad how well that's worked in Syria.  Gaddafi.

Just saying, Mono, historically, regimes that use physical violence on their citizens tend to be taken down in a rather bloody manner, and usually it's at the hand of the same citizens they've tried to quell.  Consider that for a moment before skipping down the street and singing about how the PLA tanks are coming.

As I have said many times before, the closest historical parallel is Tian An Men.  25 years of peace and prosperity after that, remember. 

[Tonitrus]

It could be said that buying the idea that HK would have democratic institutions in the long run, at the benevolent blessing of the PRC, is a sucker's bet...and that they should have left 20 years ago to Canada (as many have).

Like others, I support the sentiment of the democracy supporters, but there is no illusion they would ever successful.  When push comes to shove, the PRC shoves with Type-59s (tho probably Type-99s these days).

We can survive without democracy  I myself never believed for a moment that there would be democracy in HK.  That's fine by me, and a lot of others.  It is a nice-to-have, not a must.  There is even an upside, that we avoid a welfare state.  Even without democracy, we will have good governance.  In the end, what decides the matter of whether we stay in HK or Canada isn't democracy, but jobs.  The fact is, a lot of those who have left for Canada have come back.

It's rather sad that in 21st century, not even being ruled by Communists will get you a welfare state.   

Capitalism has truly won.

[Monoriu]

It's rather sad that in 21st century, not even being ruled by Communists will get you a welfare state.   

Capitalism has truly won.

Do you know that, on the mainland, they charge fees for entry into public parks?   

[jimmy olsen]

No one is saying it'll fall tomorrow, it might not happen for another 25 years, but when it does fall, it will be sudden, swift and unexpected.

Are you saying we should operate on the assumption that the communist regime will fall any moment?  If not, I think we should make the reasonable assumption that the communists are here to stay, and act accordingly.

Nope. I am not saying that at all. I'm saying it will inevitably fall one day and be a surprise when it does. By definition it is something that can not be planned for. It could fall next week or in 2047.  One should act as one's concience dictates regardless.

[DontSayBanana]

As I have said many times before, the closest historical parallel is Tian An Men.  25 years of peace and prosperity after that, remember. 

Notwithstanding that Tian An Men was an aberration in terms of a successful quell, you do realize that at that point, you're talking about stuff that most of the international community would consider crimes against humanity and possibly even war crimes if the ROTW decided a civil war was happening, right?

Assad did exactly what you're saying would likely happen.  Not only was it a complete failure in terms of pacification, it ignited violent unrest into a full-blown civil war; now, whenever the flames die down, he's probably going to be the most wanted war criminal since Slobodan Milosevic.


Hell, Tian An Men is kind of a touchy subject with the international community already.  China's already resting on a gentleman's assumption that that's not going to happen again.

[Eddie Teach]

Do you know that, on the mainland, they charge fees for entry into public parks?   

We have some like that too.

[Monoriu]

As I have said many times before, the closest historical parallel is Tian An Men.  25 years of peace and prosperity after that, remember. 

Notwithstanding that Tian An Men was an aberration in terms of a successful quell, you do realize that at that point, you're talking about stuff that most of the international community would consider crimes against humanity and possibly even war crimes if the ROTW decided a civil war was happening, right?

Assad did exactly what you're saying would likely happen.  Not only was it a complete failure in terms of pacification, it ignited violent unrest into a full-blown civil war; now, whenever the flames die down, he's probably going to be the most wanted war criminal since Slobodan Milosevic.


Hell, Tian An Men is kind of a touchy subject with the international community already.  China's already resting on a gentleman's assumption that that's not going to happen again.

I think the HK police plan to remove the rioters by tear gas, pepper spray, shields, human chains, water cannon, and batons.  I believe those non-lethal force should be acceptable.  It isn't like western governments don't use them.  If a rioter attacks a police and is shot, he only has himself to blame. 

[DontSayBanana]

Do you know that, on the mainland, they charge fees for entry into public parks?   

Happens from time to time here, too.  A lot of museums and "public" sites can only be accessed after making a "minimum donation" toward the organizers of the site.  On a school trip to New York City, we all had to bring a dollar to "donate" so we could get into the Cathedral of St John the Divine, for example.