Dispatches from the State Ministry of Truth

[Monoriu]

It isn't just about taking back our roads. It is about demonstrating how morally corrupt civil disobedience is, and how it will achieve nothing in the future.

You realize you sound like a fascist lunatic when you say things like this?

It does seem we have fundamentally different attitudes toward civil disobedience, and I don't think we can change each other's minds 

[Tamas]

I guess road to serfdom applies here quite well.

For Mono and apparently most of the rest of HK it is an inconceivable concept to assure their livelihood without the state handing it to them.

Sad, really.

[Monoriu]

I guess road to serfdom applies here quite well.

For Mono and apparently most of the rest of HK it is an inconceivable concept to assure their livelihood without the state handing it to them.

Sad, really.

Sometimes we need to look at the bright side.  Even for a large scale riot, it isn't as bad as it could be.  Just imagine for a moment.  What if the majority of HK joined?  What if the police or the civil service joined?  What if there is a general strike?  In a city of 7 million, I don't think the rioters number more than 100,000 in any given time, though the number of sympathisers far exceed this number. 

If any one of the above scenario happened , our roads are already patrolled by PLA tanks.  So I look at the bright side of things, and realise that cooler heads still prevail. 

[jimmy olsen]

Succeed?  I really don't see how they will get what they want.  Their main demands are that Beijing allow free elections in HK, and that HK's Chief Executive resign.  Beijing has said a million times that they won't move.  The communists publicly back the Chief Executive, who has said many times that he is here to stay.  The government is functioning.  The police and the civil service are loyal.  The public is split but there is growing discontent about the disruption.  More and more people are speaking out and calling for the roads to reopen.  The government has cut off all talks with the rioters and refuses to recognise them as a negotiation partner at all.  The rioter numbers have dwindled and I sometimes see only several hundred people there in the early hours (there is 24 hour news and camera coverage of the site). 

Government overthrow in dictatorships is always inconceivable until one day it happens. It'll happen to China one day too, probably not over this protest, but over one that starts just as innocuously. It will come with sudden speed, just like it did in Eastern Europe and numerous other states throughout history, shocking everyone, both the opposition and the loyalists.

[Tamas]

Its not a riot FFS. Its a protest. The only people rioting are the pro-government thugs.

[Monoriu]

Government overthrow in dictatorships is always inconceivable until one day it happens. It'll happen to China one day too, probably not over this protest, but over one that starts just as innocuously. It will come with sudden speed, just like it did in Eastern Europe and numerous other states throughout history, shocking everyone, both the opposition and the loyalists.

I have been hearing this for the last 25 years, ever since Tian An Men.  The past 25 years have been some of the most peaceful and prosperous times in recent Chinese history. 

[grumbler]

I was standing on one of these footbridges half an hour ago.  Lots of yelling, shouting, and I believe more than a few people were punched.

So the Status Quoers of HK was standing on a footbridge looking down on "rioters" being attacked by "anti-rioters" and thinking, finally the government steps in.

I can imagine further conflict in your Great Nation.

HK has always been at war with Eastasia.

[grumbler]

I have been hearing this for the last 25 years, ever since Tian An Men.  The past 25 years have been some of the most peaceful and prosperous times in recent Chinese history.

So even the people of HK, with access to the internet, think that China has been peaceful for the last 25 years?  I mean, i suppose you could argue that it has been more peaceful than it was during the civil wars, the war with Japan, the Great Leap Forward into the Grave, and the Anticultural Revolution, but that's not much of a bar.  Rural China over the last 25 years has been more like rural Congo than rural Canada.

[The Minsky Moment]

The Monos don't care about chaos and insurrection in the countryside b/c it doesn't penetrate the bubbles of the first tier city residents clambering up the property ladders.  Unless a gang of machete wielding Uighur fanatics gets to a train station . . .

[Monoriu]

I have been hearing this for the last 25 years, ever since Tian An Men.  The past 25 years have been some of the most peaceful and prosperous times in recent Chinese history.

So even the people of HK, with access to the internet, think that China has been peaceful for the last 25 years?  I mean, i suppose you could argue that it has been more peaceful than it was during the civil wars, the war with Japan, the Great Leap Forward into the Grave, and the Anticultural Revolution, but that's not much of a bar.  Rural China over the last 25 years has been more like rural Congo than rural Canada.

The point I was trying to make was that I keep hearing people say that the communist in regime in China can go at any moment, but I am not holding my breath.  The communists are clever and I think they have learnt the right lessons from the fall of other communist regimes. 

First of all, they have developed a succession mechanism.  It is now expected that the #1 in the party and the majority of the politburo standing committee will serve for 10 years only, and no more.  The next #1 will serve as an apprentice of sorts halfway into the 10 year period.  So there is steady, relatively transparent succession.  There is also an age limit for membership in the politburo standing committee to ensure that the old guard leave their posts before they die. I may be wrong on the specifics, but it is something like "no one above the age of 67 may be appointed onto the committee, and no one above that age may be reappointed". 

Second, they have concluded that Gorbachev destroyed communism in Russia, and they are determined not to make the same mistake.  The most significant long-term impact of Tian An Men 1989 was that the political reform wing of the Chinese communist party was entirely wiped out.  And it isn't making a return. 

I have met many "new immigrants" to HK who have just arrived from the mainland.  Guess what, they don't hate the communists.  They know it isn't perfect, and they know about the corruption.  But life is reasonably good, and even the government isn't too bad.  At least it does well in maintaining stability, creating jobs, dealing with natural disasters, keeping the economy afloat etc.  It can be a lot better, of course, but we aren't talking about North Korea or Burma level of total disregard of the population.   

[Monoriu]

More and more senior communist officials have called the events in HK a Colour revolution sponsored by western governments.  Previously, these views were expressed in the form of articles in the People's Daily.  Today, at least two officials, one of them a vice premier, have repeated the same view in front of cameras.  What's more, the People's Daily says that a clearance operation is "imminent".  I think it is quite clear that the politburo has discussed the matter and has already come to a view. 

The 4th Communist Central Committee meeting (of the current five year term) will take place later this month.  There are rumours that HK has been ordered to clean up before the meeting takes place.  It is customary for the mainland to take extra precautionary measures to ensure stability before and during these meetings. 

Back in HK, police and rioters are continuing the tug of war of removing and rebuilding road barricades.  Police action this morning successfully resulted in the reopening of a road in Causeway Bay.  So far, law enforcement action is limited to dealing with objects but not people.  I think this is a way to strengthen the eventual "we've done everything we possibly can before we remove the rioters" line.

[Monoriu]

Riot police are confronting rioters in Queensway right now.  The rioters rebuilt the road barricades in Queensway with concrete and bamboo after yesterday's clearance operation.  Police are saying this is totally unacceptable because concrete will block the way for ambulances.  They will take immediate removal action.

[jimmy olsen]

I have been hearing this for the last 25 years, ever since Tian An Men.  The past 25 years have been some of the most peaceful and prosperous times in recent Chinese history.

So even the people of HK, with access to the internet, think that China has been peaceful for the last 25 years?  I mean, i suppose you could argue that it has been more peaceful than it was during the civil wars, the war with Japan, the Great Leap Forward into the Grave, and the Anticultural Revolution, but that's not much of a bar.  Rural China over the last 25 years has been more like rural Congo than rural Canada.

The point I was trying to make was that I keep hearing people say that the communist in regime in China can go at any moment, but I am not holding my breath.  The communists are clever and I think they have learnt the right lessons from the fall of other communist regimes. 

No one is saying it'll fall tomorrow, it might not happen for another 25 years, but when it does fall, it will be sudden, swift and unexpected.

[Monoriu]

No one is saying it'll fall tomorrow, it might not happen for another 25 years, but when it does fall, it will be sudden, swift and unexpected.

Are you saying we should operate on the assumption that the communist regime will fall any moment?  If not, I think we should make the reasonable assumption that the communists are here to stay, and act accordingly.

[DontSayBanana]

Mono, I know you've got a massive hard-on for the way the police have been clearing out the demonstrators, but you've got to realize it's a coin-flip: on one hand, the group could see reason and disband, maybe with more grumbling than before about the perceived puppet government not representing their interests at all.

On the other hand, if these students are as desperate as you say they are, the violence shown toward their nonviolence might just spark real riots.  You know, actual vandalism and assault (not just a few thrown punches).