In The Wake Of A Scottish Independence Vote, Your Predictions?

Started by mongers, September 16, 2014, 04:30:22 PM

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mongers

USA becomes the first state to recognise Scotland.

France negotiates a bi-lateral treaty including basing rights for French forces.

Norway searches museums and readies said longships. 



Somewhat seriously, what do you see happening, you best guess at how events play out?
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Barrister

No 51-49.

Cameron calls for some form of 'constitutional convention' to try and work on plans for further devolution.  Nothing is completed by the time of the next election.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

The Brain

Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Maximus


mongers

Quote from: Barrister on September 16, 2014, 04:34:25 PM
No 51-49.

Cameron calls for some form of 'constitutional convention' to try and work on plans for further devolution.  Nothing is completed by the time of the next election.

I think  a "A Scottish Independence Vote" implies a Yes vote, though my use of English could well be wrong.

But imagine a situation on the Friday morning after Scotland has voted Yes.
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

derspiess

The Yes side loses, and a few days later everyone outside of Scotland has put the whole thing out of their minds.

I voted No/No in the other poll, but I have to admit there is a small part of me that wants the Yes side to win just to bear witness to something that historic.

Edit: The title was vague.  If it is a Yes vote, there will be a bunch of sad news stories on the breakup, Scotland will go about setting up however the hell it's going to run its own affairs, half-assing some of the steps and getting itself into trouble.  Eventually they'll settle into a union of sorts that resembles a less centralized version of what exists now.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Barrister

Quote from: mongers on September 16, 2014, 04:45:43 PM
Quote from: Barrister on September 16, 2014, 04:34:25 PM
No 51-49.

Cameron calls for some form of 'constitutional convention' to try and work on plans for further devolution.  Nothing is completed by the time of the next election.

I think  a "A Scottish Independence Vote" implies a Yes vote, though my use of English could well be wrong.

But imagine a situation on the Friday morning after Scotland has voted Yes.

You said "in the wake of the vote", not what the outcome would be.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

mongers

Quote from: Barrister on September 16, 2014, 04:52:47 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 16, 2014, 04:45:43 PM
Quote from: Barrister on September 16, 2014, 04:34:25 PM
No 51-49.

Cameron calls for some form of 'constitutional convention' to try and work on plans for further devolution.  Nothing is completed by the time of the next election.

I think  a "A Scottish Independence Vote" implies a Yes vote, though my use of English could well be wrong.

But imagine a situation on the Friday morning after Scotland has voted Yes.

You said "in the wake of the vote", not what the outcome would be.

Counsel, that's a none too accurate quote.  :hmm:
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

The Brain

What exactly is the vote about? Vague independence? Seems a bit lame not to have an explicit deal on the table and vote on that.
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Eddie Teach

To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Duque de Bragança

#10
Quote from: mongers on September 16, 2014, 04:30:22 PM
USA becomes the first state to recognise Scotland.

France negotiates a bi-lateral treaty including basing rights for French forces.

Norway searches museums and readies said longships. 



Somewhat seriously, what do you see happening, you best guess at how events play out?

I say France would be the first state to recognise Scotland.  :frog: New Revived Auld Alliance
Scottish gas and oil could be even more interesting for France but I don't think it will amount to much (minor adjustments compared to Russian gas?).
Interestingly enough, I have heard some plans were made back in 1995 for Québec.  :ph34r:

Basing rights? For the US I'd say, more interesting and namely critical to them.

Time of reckoning for Cameron, will he hold the EU referendum now that a sizable part of the pro-EU vote is now away? Juncker was elected, contrary to his wishes, and reports said he threatened with an early referendum if that happened. UKIP will be even more unbearable and blame the secession of Scotland on Brussels and Paris (possibly even Walloons). Tory party to collapse and make Mali look like a governable land.

Northern Ireland even more separated from Britain, some wild rejoicing in nationalist areas (United Kingdom over United Ireland soon) as well as wild mockery of Orange parades/dress-up parties. Paisley would have died early enough to avoid seeing this in any case, sadly.
Wales possibly getting more autonomy (vorsicht Welscher bias hier).

Norway to make sure Scotland does not destabilise North Sea oil and gas prices by whatever means necessary.

Admiral Yi

Serious dip in gilts as Scotland and Angleland haggle incessantly over the division of the (inter)national debt.  Equities take a hit too.

mongers

Having a bit of a senior moment here, but are there that many old multi-nation state left?
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Ed Anger

Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

Duque de Bragança

#14
Quote from: mongers on September 16, 2014, 05:18:50 PM
Having a bit of a senior moment here, but are there that many old multi-nation state left?

Spain I'd say, but Catalonia and others could get even more inspiration from Scotland. Switzerland possibly (4 languages and cultures more than 4 nations though).
Russia to proclaim that Scotland's independence is proof of western decadence and tyranny, unlike the benevolent Russian rule on all subjects of the federation.

Rangers are no longer in the top Scottish League since their bankruptcy, but they probably still have fans. I don't think they can blackmail the future Scottish govt into giving them a slot in the Scottish league by threatening a pro-English/British insurgency.
Celtic is still there (they won by outlasting Rangers in the top league) and would create its own militia.