In The Wake Of A Scottish Independence Vote, Your Predictions?

[Viking]

King Arthur returns from Avalon and leads several thousand mailed horsemen down Sauchiehall Street slaughtering Celtic supporters as they go; the Scots, realising the error of their ways, beg for forgiveness and a return to the Union.

Given the likely context of Arthur it's more probable he'll go to London first in order to liberate the Welsh and what remains of the Cornish from the AngloSaxons of England :p Then he'll turn to the Scots.
After that he'll proclaim himself emperor and march on Rome.

Finally a cause I can get behind!

[Josquius]

Apparently it took 10,000 treaties (surely poetic license) to achieve the velvet divorce. Expect  much confusion and much dissappointment since nobody seems to have done much serious thinking about it.

It would be a mess. Messier in some ways. But in others I think a bit neater than Czechoslovakia since Scotland is just leaving the UK, it's not an equal division of the uk

[Warspite]

Immediately: sterling falls, the FTSE tumbles, most of the nation's press goes into a week long dirge about the death of Britain.

Shortly after: Cameron faces increasing calls to resign. Tries to sidestep them. Eurosceptics organise a leadership coup against him. I think Cameron has to go.

Serious investigations begin as to how to handle the break up. I don't think a government of national unity, at least on issues of separation, is out of the question. Certainly the rUK representation at the negotiations has to be cross-party.

Long term: Scots learn that rule by Edinburgh is not very different to rule from London.

[Savonarola]

My English cousins on the borderlands should find good loot raiding.

An economic boom comes to the borderlands as the cross border cattle-rustling and horse-thieving industry returns.  The wild MacSheilbhs and the dour Josquises  carry on a vicious blood feud that will live on in song and story throughout the generations.

[viper37]

Somewhat seriously, what do you see happening, you best guess at how events play out?

The NO wins, 52-48.
United Kingdom government express reliefs that the country is safe, vows that the Scottish pleas for change have been heard.
UK banks with HQ in Scotland move to London.
Big British corporations with important offices in Scotland move to London.
UK government finds a way to cut money transfers to Scotland that appears semi-legitimate.
UK governments embarks on broad national programs to restore unity, every year, a billion United Kingdom flags are dropped over Scotland by airplane.
Government offices start moving from Scotland to just south of the border, government buildings of Northern england gets more funding for renovations while buildings in Scotalnd are left to decrepit.
Important government offices are moved out of Scotland, back to London.
UK government decides on being more visible, lauch a national ad campaign.
We later learn that these ads were paid twice what they were worth and a part of the money was funelled back to the Labor and Conservative Party.

[Grey Fox]

[Malthus]

I see the Quebec contingent simply can't let a Scottish thread go by. 

[Viking]

Terms rUK insists on for Scotland joining NATO: Trident bases in scotland for the full term of Trident operations with option for renewal.

Terms EU insists on for Scotland joining the EU: Joining the Euro and Schengen, that means abandoning the pound and a border fence with England.

day after Vote: Tory Backbencher proposes holding a going away party for the Scottish MPs immediately

[Barrister]

One silver lining to Cameron's unpopularity in Scotland is that Cameron's authority to negotiate ob behalf of rUK shouldn't be questioned.

One of the big unknowns if there had been a yes vote in 1995 (or even in 1979) is how Quebec-based Jean Chretien could negoiate on behalf of Canada in negotiations on Quebec independence.

[Jacob]

One silver lining to Cameron's unpopularity in Scotland is that Cameron's authority to negotiate ob behalf of rUK shouldn't be questioned.

One of the big unknowns if there had been a yes vote in 1995 (or even in 1979) is how Quebec-based Jean Chretien could negoiate on behalf of Canada in negotiations on Quebec independence.

That's a silver lining? For whom?

[Martinus]

Somewhat seriously, what do you see happening, you best guess at how events play out?

The NO wins, 52-48.
United Kingdom government express reliefs that the country is safe, vows that the Scottish pleas for change have been heard.
UK banks with HQ in Scotland move to London.
Big British corporations with important offices in Scotland move to London.
UK government finds a way to cut money transfers to Scotland that appears semi-legitimate.
UK governments embarks on broad national programs to restore unity, every year, a billion United Kingdom flags are dropped over Scotland by airplane.
Government offices start moving from Scotland to just south of the border, government buildings of Northern england gets more funding for renovations while buildings in Scotalnd are left to decrepit.
Important government offices are moved out of Scotland, back to London.
UK government decides on being more visible, lauch a national ad campaign.
We later learn that these ads were paid twice what they were worth and a part of the money was funelled back to the Labor and Conservative Party.

And, limited nuclear exchange.

[Sheilbh]

Juncker was elected, contrary to his wishes and reports said he threatened with an early referendum if that happened.

He didn't threaten, he said he'd be under threat. If Juncker was elected he couldn't guarantee that he'd be able to control his party enough to stop them trying to force an early referendum - which may well happen given that one MP has already defected to UKIP and looks very likely to win his by-election.

Reading Europeans, even the Polish ministers, about Cameron is always odd because they never seem to realise the extent to which he's a moderate for the Tories on Europe and just about managing to keep a lid on a full-blown Tory civil war (which they love so much). He's always portrayed as someone with far, far more agency than he has.

Serious dip in gilts as Scotland and Angleland haggle incessantly over the division of the (inter)national debt.  Equities take a hit too.

The Treasury's already guaranteed all British debt regardless of the result and regardless of the divvying up.

Exactly how big is the oil industry compared to Scotland's GDP? If it's too big it could be a problem. Yeah they might go like Norway, but the impulse might be more likely going Venezuela.

I doubt it.

In terms of extraction it's not that big - though Salmond thinks there's more (as an oil economist friend of mine said, 'that's bollocks as someone who's massaged figures like that I can see what he's doing' ) though there may be some more and as yet there's no fracking in Scotland.

I think the biggest employer is the refinery, but also Scotland's got a lot of very good companies created by oil to do with extraction and exploration which they already do all over the world, often competing with Norwegian companies.

My view is if they win chances are it'll be difficult, especially for Scotland, in the short-term for about 5-10 years as markets react and things are adjusted. There'll be a few polls suggesting Scottish people regret voting yes, especially after the SNP's first austerity budget which also, as promised (the only outright policy promise they've made) cuts corporation tax.

But basically Scotland will stay a rich country. They'll get into NATO without any trouble and after 5-10 years into the EU too. They might be slightly more left-wing than England or (as I expect) slightly more liberal. They could be a little richer or poorer than they'd otherwise be, but that's about it.

At this point though my suspicion is that there'll be a tight no vote and we'll start seeing federalisation within the UK with UKIP doing quite well with a 'what about England?' perspective.

One silver lining to Cameron's unpopularity in Scotland is that Cameron's authority to negotiate ob behalf of rUK shouldn't be questioned.

He'll be under immense pressure to resign or call an election. As a Prime Minister who never won a majority and then lost a chunk of the country is authority will be very much under question. Personally I think he'd have to go.

[Viking]

One silver lining to Cameron's unpopularity in Scotland is that Cameron's authority to negotiate ob behalf of rUK shouldn't be questioned.

One of the big unknowns if there had been a yes vote in 1995 (or even in 1979) is how Quebec-based Jean Chretien could negoiate on behalf of Canada in negotiations on Quebec independence.

Yes, A Cameron with a scottish kingly name will be negotiating for England in the Union Dissolution.

[Brazen]

It's shite being Scottish.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29-LRuuqFT0

[Malthus]

Where is zombie Edward Longshanks when you really need him?