Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[grumbler]

Shit yeah-- free drinks at the bar, Polish chicks, etc. 



Wonder how much a flight to Warsaw costs these days

Airdrop them some of those Cincy Bengals Super Bowl Champs '88 hats.  I know you know where they are.

[Martinus]

So, read an interview with a Russian opposition analyst today, and his view is that there is no way, with the current Western policy, Putin could lose any confrontation with NATO in the Eastern Europe - because if he starts losing conventionally, he will use a tactical nuke against an Eastern European NATO capital to force NATO to withdraw - and there is no way the West would risk triggering the MAD by retaliating against a target in the Russian territory.

Thoughts?

[Martinus]

Here's a summary of the view, also from an English language blog:

Would Putin commit suicide by letting his missiles fly against the United States? No. Rather, he would respond with a limited nuclear strike against a couple of European capitals -- not London or Paris, but smaller ones, presumably in Eastern European countries that have only recently joined NATO. Warsaw, against which Russia has already conducted a drill simulating a Russian nuclear attack, first comes to mind. Or, say, Vilnius, Lithuania's capital. The point is, Putin would bet on decision-makers in Washington, Berlin, London, and Paris not retaliating with nuclear weapons against Russia if it had "only" hit a city or two most Westerners have barely heard of -- and certainly do not want to die for.

The outcome of Putin's putative gambit is that NATO effectively capitulates. The alliance's credibility as guarantor of security for its member states would be utterly destroyed, as would U.S. hegemony, which largely rests on the threat of using force. Putin would then be free to do what he wanted in Ukraine and anywhere else he perceived Russia's interests to be threatened.

[PJL]

So, read an interview with a Russian opposition analyst today, and his view is that there is no way, with the current Western policy, Putin could lose any confrontation with NATO in the Eastern Europe - because if he starts losing conventionally, he will use a tactical nuke against an Eastern European NATO capital to force NATO to withdraw - and there is no way the West would risk triggering the MAD by retaliating against a target in the Russian territory.

Thoughts?

If that happened, France would nuke Moscow as a retaliation for failing to protect French citizens in said Eastern European capital.. So it's not going to happen. I mean even Saddam Hussain didn't use chemical weapons against the West during the first Gulf war, and Putin is more rational than him.

[Martinus]

So, read an interview with a Russian opposition analyst today, and his view is that there is no way, with the current Western policy, Putin could lose any confrontation with NATO in the Eastern Europe - because if he starts losing conventionally, he will use a tactical nuke against an Eastern European NATO capital to force NATO to withdraw - and there is no way the West would risk triggering the MAD by retaliating against a target in the Russian territory.

Thoughts?

If that happened, France would nuke Moscow as a retaliation for failing to protect French citizens in said Eastern European capital.. So it's not going to happen. I mean even Saddam Hussain didn't use chemical weapons against the West during the first Gulf war, and Putin is more rational than him.

You are joking, right? About France nuking Moscow. 

[PJL]

So, read an interview with a Russian opposition analyst today, and his view is that there is no way, with the current Western policy, Putin could lose any confrontation with NATO in the Eastern Europe - because if he starts losing conventionally, he will use a tactical nuke against an Eastern European NATO capital to force NATO to withdraw - and there is no way the West would risk triggering the MAD by retaliating against a target in the Russian territory.

Thoughts?

If that happened, France would nuke Moscow as a retaliation for failing to protect French citizens in said Eastern European capital.. So it's not going to happen. I mean even Saddam Hussain didn't use chemical weapons against the West during the first Gulf war, and Putin is more rational than him.

You are joking, right? About France nuking Moscow. 

Maybe not Moscow, but certainly a Russian city.

[grumbler]

I'd question whether the Russian military would obey an order from Putin to launch an out-of-the-blue nuclear strike on Warsaw or Vilnius.  Would Putin take the chance that the officer receiving such an order wouldn't simply shoot him or arrest him?  I don't know the extent to which Putin's regime has been able to subvert the officer selection process sufficient to get his own cronies into positions of power in the army, but I'd expect the answer to be "not much" given the Army's recent history and the lack of indications of a purge.  The Army may be willing to go along with him so long as it is in the army's best interests, but starting a nuclear war is not in the Russian Army's best interests.

[Zanza]

It's quite an escalation from sending unmarked special forces and some weapons to support local insurgents in a border region to using a tactical nuclear weapon against NATO. I would expect a conventional escalation first.

[Martinus]

It's quite an escalation from sending unmarked special forces and some weapons to support local insurgents in a border region to using a tactical nuclear weapon against NATO. I would expect a conventional escalation first.

Check my post. My scenario already assumes Putin losing a local conventional war with NATO (e.g. in the Baltics).

The gambit goes like this:

1. Putin sends his unmarked special forces into Estonia.
2. Putin sends in troops.
3. NATO responds by sending own troops into Estonia.
4. Putin begins to lose.
5. Putin nukes Warsaw and tells NATO to back off.

[Martinus]

I'd question whether the Russian military would obey an order from Putin to launch an out-of-the-blue nuclear strike on Warsaw or Vilnius.  Would Putin take the chance that the officer receiving such an order wouldn't simply shoot him or arrest him?  I don't know the extent to which Putin's regime has been able to subvert the officer selection process sufficient to get his own cronies into positions of power in the army, but I'd expect the answer to be "not much" given the Army's recent history and the lack of indications of a purge.  The Army may be willing to go along with him so long as it is in the army's best interests, but starting a nuclear war is not in the Russian Army's best interests.

Isn't the limited nuclear war with the West a part of the Russian military doctrine? They even had a military exercise involving nuking Warsaw. Twice.

[Martinus]

Btw, does anyone know what to do in order to open a bank account in another EU country bank, while not being a resident in that country? Perhaps opening a bank account in a branch (not a subsidiary) of a foreign bank would do the trick? 

[grumbler]

Check my post. My scenario already assumes Putin losing a local conventional war with NATO (e.g. in the Baltics).

The gambit goes like this:

1. Putin sends his unmarked special forces into Estonia.
2. Putin sends in troops.
3. NATO responds by sending own troops into Estonia.
4. Putin begins to lose.
5. Putin nukes Warsaw and tells NATO to back off.

I just don't see the Russian military going along with that risk.  It's an insane gamble (risking survival as a nation in order to avert a political embarrassment). 

[Eddie Teach]

I just don't see the Russian military going along with that risk.  It's an insane gamble (risking survival as a nation in order to avert a political embarrassment).

What if Putin goes to the launch site himself?

[Maximus]

Riding a tiger

[garbon]

What if Russian nukes malfunction and go off right now?