Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[DGuller]

Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict.

Like the way they always see everything: through the prism of nationalism-fueled, conspiracy-laden misinformation.

The fucked-in-the-head factor is very high there, even among the educated and Putin-hating Russians.  You will not get through their thick skulls to even set the basic facts straight, so for your sake and their sake, I just wouldn't even bring it up.

[Jacob]

Well, one of my colleagues opted out of the trip due to the "uncertain political situation", so I guess they'll at least wonder why he won't join the workshop.

You might say "uncertain political situation" and they'll sympathetically agree that it's too bad that Western foolishness is hampering business.

[Martinus]

Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip.

Why would a German be flying to Moscow on a "business trip" at this time? 

[CountDeMoney]

and they'll sympathetically agree that it's too bad that Western foolishness is hampering business.

Yeah, that's what Legal would say whenever we wanted to do something about the PLA hammering away at our power grid.

[Martinus]

Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip. 

I was going to say you might not have to broach the topic, but then I realized I never dealt with Russians professionally.  Do they do a good job of avoiding iffy topics in the workplace?

Well, if you remember, about a year ago I considered whether I should or should not go to a "Polish-Russian Legal Day" in Moscow, on account of gays and all. I ended up not going simply by omission. 

Now, some genius from Poland sent an email whether we should have a new one. The responses from the Russians were politely cool "in light of the various issues on both sides." But then, if you consider Magnitsky, I think they know well enough not to rock the boat.

[derspiess]

You will not get through their thick skulls to even set the basic facts straight, so for your sake and their sake, I just wouldn't even bring it up.

He doesn't have to argue with them, though I guess if he brings it up they might ask him for his take.  In which case he could still be vague or even deferential. 

[Zanza]

He doesn't have to argue with them, though I guess if he brings it up they might ask him for his take.  In which case he could still be vague or even deferential.

I could mention that my grandfather fought in the Donezk area with the 123rd Wehrmacht infantry to add a personal note. 

[grumbler]

They might decide it, but it will be the end of NATO as we know it. Countries like Romania, who has a history of swift (and very skilful) cloak-changes for example would probably realise the alliance would do even less for them, and suck up to Russia. Hungary is already sucking up to Russia so they would be happy to jump camp after such an excuse.

And I think the Russian study is right that it is fairly easy to ruin relatively stable countries this way: a determined NATO response against Narva would surely defeat the "separatists" and I don't think Russia would press the matter that much seeing a strong NATO response, but it would involve stuff like city fighting and artillery shelling in Estonia, with NATO inflicting civilian casualties in a fight against what Russian (and European radical) propaganda will label as dissatisfied EU citizens.

That's why I am afraid they will try it: they cannot really lose.

The scenario you describe would be a catastrophic Russian defeat.  Having Rumania and/or Hungary bolt NATO (and the EU as a necessary consequence) and latch on to the struggling Russian economy would add a pair of anchors to an already struggling swimmer.  Russia couldn't afford to abandon them for political reasons and couldn't afford to sustain them for economic reasons; all they will do is pull Russian down with them.

[Syt]

He doesn't have to argue with them, though I guess if he brings it up they might ask him for his take.  In which case he could still be vague or even deferential.

I could mention that my grandfather fought in the Donezk area with the 123rd Wehrmacht infantry to add a personal note. 

"Take it from someone who learned the hard way: don't launch an offensive shortly before the muddy season!"

[CountDeMoney]

He doesn't have to argue with them, though I guess if he brings it up they might ask him for his take.  In which case he could still be vague or even deferential.

I could mention that my grandfather fought in the Donezk area with the 123rd Wehrmacht infantry to add a personal note. 

Oh yeah, that'll go over well.  LETS GO THERE AND TAKE SELFIES

[KRonn]

So with a "ceasefire" in place in Ukraine, and Russian troops occupying areas in the southeast, I figure that means those areas will never be relinquished by Russia. Same as Crimea, they'll become a part of Mutha Russia. Just remains to be seen how far Putin pushes things, such as if he claims the Ukrainians violate the ceasefire then he'll  act like he has a free hand to take more land. 

[Sheilbh]

One would think that at that point, the PRC would finally wake up and see what hugely problematic precedents their new Russian allies are creating for them.

Indeed. Can Putin totally isolate Russia and survive?

Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip. 

I never broach any controversial topics on holiday. If they bring it up I smile, say 'well, quite' and move on. But then I barely broach controversial topics among close friends and family.

Marti, what's the latest on the Smolensk conspiracy theories? Just...wondering...

[Valmy]

Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip.

Why would a German be flying to Moscow on a "business trip" at this time? 

Poland is not going to partition itself.

[citizen k]

Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip.

Why would a German be flying to Moscow on a "business trip" at this time? 

Poland is not going to partition itself.

Zanza von Ribbentrop?

[CountDeMoney]

US Ambassador jumps with Polish airborne troops.  Gene Hackman nowhere to be seen relieving Arnhem.

http://www.aplatestnews.com/usnewsvideo.php?vidtype=1&idx=us-ambassador-skydives-with-polish-troops-2014-09-08