Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Martinus]

Man, I wish I was unbanned back in winter when the shit was hitting the fan for the first time. I used to be much more fired up and interested in the Russo-Ukrainian thing. By now, most Poles are really bored / tired of this and it's "business as usual", I'm afraid.

But I have friends who live in Belarus and Ukraine, and our firm has an office in Kiev, with very close ties to ours (in fact some of the people intermarried) so let me know if you want to know more about the situation "on the ground".

[PJL]

For that matter, what will Europe do?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything at all?

There is no "Europe". There is the UK, France and Germany that make sweet deals with Putin and his oligarchs; Spain and Italy who couldn't care less; and Poland and the Baltics who are alternatively shitting their pants and rattling their sabers. (Un)surprisingly, the Scandies seem to be the most reasonable and principled in all of this, calling a spade a spade but telling Poles and the Balts to cool it for a while.

I'm sure we'll use the standard Foreign Office procedure for this like we did last time. Though I was surprised by how quickly they reacted in the Kurdish / IS situation.

[Martinus]

I'm sure we'll use the standard Foreign Office procedure for this like we did last time. Though I was surprised by how quickly they reacted in the Kurdish / IS situation.

Standard Foreign Office procedure? You mean, William Hague making some angry noises in public, while leaking a "secret" memo advocating total inaction, to make sure the oligarchs in Notting Hill do not get anxious or anything?

[Tamas]

I'm sure we'll use the standard Foreign Office procedure for this like we did last time. Though I was surprised by how quickly they reacted in the Kurdish / IS situation.

Standard Foreign Office procedure? You mean, William Hague making some angry noises in public, while leaking a "secret" memo advocating total inaction, to make sure the oligarchs in Notting Hill do not get anxious or anything?

yes

[Valmy]

I'm sure we'll use the standard Foreign Office procedure for this like we did last time. Though I was surprised by how quickly they reacted in the Kurdish / IS situation.

Stage one: We say nothing is going to happen
Stage two: We say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it
Stage three: We say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we *can* do.
Stage four: We say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now

[Martinus]

I'm sure we'll use the standard Foreign Office procedure for this like we did last time. Though I was surprised by how quickly they reacted in the Kurdish / IS situation.

Stage one: We say nothing is going to happen
Stage two: We say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it
Stage three: We say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we *can* do.
Stage four: We say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now

Perfect quote.

[Berkut]

What could the EU do, if in fact the EU were the political entity we've been told for decades was the reason for it's existence?

Some options I could think of off the top of my head:

1. More and tougher sanctions, of course. One thing about sanctions - they idea is to hurt the people you are sanctioning. But it is going to hurt you as well, by definition. Like all actions in conflict, the idea is to hurt the other guy more than yourself, and THEIR idea is to convince you that you will hurt yourself more than them. *If you enter into the sanctions discussion with the idea that anything that will hurt you at all is not acceptable, don't bother even talking about it!*.
2. Provide direct aid to the Ukraine. Funds, non-military equipment, military equipment, supplies, intelligence assets.
3. Apply more overt pressure or even threats. Start talking about the possibility of sending in direct support, perhaps air support or advisers.

[Martinus]

What could the EU do, if in fact the EU were the political entity we've been told for decades was the reason for it's existence?

Oh spare us. For decades the US policy towards the EU (when there was a policy towards the EU) was to make sure it stays divided enough not to become a single political entity. That's why you supported countries like the UK and Poland.

Edit: Incidentally, you are right. But it will not happen any time soon. There was a brief chance when Western Europeans got pissed off after the plane got shot down, but now it is back to normal.

The only thing that could work would be the US imposing Iran-style sanctions on Russia, forcing any company willing to do business in the US to withdraw from/cut ties to Russia - that would become de facto global sanctions because not many businesses can afford to be cut off from the US financial markets.

But that is not going to happen either, because Halliburton.

[Berkut]

What could the EU do, if in fact the EU were the political entity we've been told for decades was the reason for it's existence?

Oh spare us. For decades the US policy towards the EU (when there was a policy towards the EU) was to make sure it stays divided enough not to become a single political entity. That's why you supported countries like the UK and Poland.

Wow, that is right up there with Islamotards blaming the US for all their problems.

Now the EU being a failure as a political entity is the United State's fault. Right. The US has "made sure it stays divided". Uh-huh.

[Valmy]

Well we do support the UK and Poland. 

[Martinus]

What could the EU do, if in fact the EU were the political entity we've been told for decades was the reason for it's existence?

Oh spare us. For decades the US policy towards the EU (when there was a policy towards the EU) was to make sure it stays divided enough not to become a single political entity. That's why you supported countries like the UK and Poland.

Wow, that is right up there with Islamotards blaming the US for all their problems.

Now the EU being a failure as a political entity is the United State's fault. Right. The US has "made sure it stays divided". Uh-huh.

I am not blaming you. I just think it is unfair for you to be blaming us for something that you encouraged for decades - different things.

[Jacob]

What could the EU do, if in fact the EU were the political entity we've been told for decades was the reason for it's existence?

Who told you that about the EU? Because while there are some people within the EU who'd like it to be that, there are plenty of others who do not.

[alfred russel]

Who told you that about the EU? Because while there are some people within the EU who'd like it to be that, there are plenty of others who do not.

Berkut has intense passion, but so often for positions that turn out to be so wrong. See Iraq, Egypt, Libya, the Arab Spring in general, the EU, and above all else Pac 12 football.

[Berkut]

Oh yes, I was wrong on all those things. Tell me more how I was wrong about "the Arab Spring in general" for example?

Hell, I was not even aware I had a position on the "Arab Stpring in general". Much less "the EU".

[Jacob]

Oh yes, I was wrong on all those things. Tell me more how I was wrong about "the Arab Spring in general" for example?

Hell, I was not even aware I had a position on the "Arab Stpring in general". Much less "the EU".

You do realize he's trolling you, right?