Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Hansmeister]

I'm growing very pessimistic that full scale war can be prevented. It looks more and more like this will become all-out war.

[DGuller]

  Have 2012 election results been certified already, or can we still do a recount?

[Barrister]

BBC reporting Ukraine has in fact agreed, though things seem very much "up in the air":

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28743478

[mongers]

BBC reporting Ukraine has in fact agreed, though things seem very much "up in the air":

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28743478

Yes, the Russians are now promising not to send any tanks; so it'll turn out ok.

[MadImmortalMan]

I can't read Russian but pics are coming out of convoys pulling out.



http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/504939.html

[Tamas]

Update: Red Cross announced that they don't have the faintest idea about what could be in those trucks, so Ukraine has denied access for the convoy. I guess if they try to enter regardless, a convenient Casus Belli will be served when Ukraine stops them.

[Tamas]

Also I haven't found them but allegedly there are photos of the "red cross" trucks parked in front of a military base in Russia with Russian soldiers around them.

Stay tuned folks, this might be it!

[CountDeMoney]

Considering Putin's reverse embargo on western foodstuffs imported into Russia last week that is going to have a major impact on the availabilty of certain goods over the next year, I'd say launching a large, extended ground excursion into the Ukraine in August would be a new level of disregard for the daily plight of your average Ivan Vodka Shot.

Sure, it's not 1916, but if I remember my Russian history correctly, they get real pissy when it comes to a lack of food.

[DGuller]

Considering Putin's reverse embargo on western foodstuffs imported into Russia last week that is going to have a major impact on the availabilty of certain goods over the next year, I'd say launching a large, extended ground excursion into the Ukraine in August would be a new level of disregard for the daily plight of your average Ivan Vodka Shot.

Sure, it's not 1916, but if I remember my Russian history correctly, they get real pissy when it comes to a lack of food.

It's not like other countries can't pick up the slack.  There are plenty of countries that look at sanctions as an opportunity, not a moral imperative.

[CountDeMoney]

I don't think Hungarian beets are going to be an acceptable alternative to French beef.  Maybe for you.

[CountDeMoney]

MAH BEET SIRLOIN TIPS

[DGuller]

I don't think Hungarian beets are going to be an acceptable alternative to French beef.  Maybe for you.

That's just silly.  In this day and age, for a country of Russia's wealth level, having enough food is not a concern.  It may be an economic drain to have to look for alternative sources, as one would assume that Western countries held a market share for some economic efficiency reasons, but it's improbable that Russia is going to be starved out of aggression.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Considering Putin's reverse embargo on western foodstuffs imported into Russia last week that is going to have a major impact on the availabilty of certain goods over the next year, I'd say launching a large, extended ground excursion into the Ukraine in August would be a new level of disregard for the daily plight of your average Ivan Vodka Shot.

Sure, it's not 1916, but if I remember my Russian history correctly, they get real pissy when it comes to a lack of food.

It's not like other countries can't pick up the slack.  There are plenty of countries that look at sanctions as an opportunity, not a moral imperative.

The numbers I was reading said that it affected $9bn of $43bn worth of food imports into Russia. Most "staples" apparently are not imported from Western countries. The stuff it impacts is a lot of middle class and upper middle class goods like French cheeses and other "premium" items, things like Frosted Flakes from America and such. The people in Russia that really would be put out by it are the urban middle class / upper class, who coincidentally are the 20% or so of the population that don't actively support Putin.

They can certainly replace the food in terms of amount, but wealthier consumers who are "brand" conscious aren't going to fully accept cheese from say, New Zealand, as equal in quality to the gourmet European cheese they were eating before.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Also, it's possible the aid convoy really is an aid convoy. Part of Russia's problem has been support for the anti-Kiev pro-Moscow movement in Eastern Ukraine hasn't been as expected, send some free stuff their way and it boosts Russia's standing among the people, I would think. It's similar to how Hamas built up so much loyalty in Gaza, they were the only political group that was doing humanitarian stuff (so was the UN and other groups, but they obviously don't run for Palestinian public offices.)

[Malthus]

Also, it's possible the aid convoy really is an aid convoy. Part of Russia's problem has been support for the anti-Kiev pro-Moscow movement in Eastern Ukraine hasn't been as expected, send some free stuff their way and it boosts Russia's standing among the people, I would think. It's similar to how Hamas built up so much loyalty in Gaza, they were the only political group that was doing humanitarian stuff (so was the UN and other groups, but they obviously don't run for Palestinian public offices.)

From what I've read, the problem that the pro-Moscow seperatists have had is that they are just the opposite: they consist mostly of "volunteers" (many of them Chechens) and local thugs, and intimidation and looting has been rife from the latter. In fact, at one point the "volunteers" - who are at least disciplined - essentially cleaned out some of the thugs, because the widespread looting from civilians was eroding what support they had among the populace.

I'm not sure an aid convoy or two is going to reverse that and make for widespread enthusiasm. I suspect most of the population at this point just wants them, and the war, gone, and doesn't care all that much who the government is.