Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Sheilbh]

Pro Russian candidate in the lead in romania's presidential elections....
For fuck's sake

I am reading the liberal candidate is now in the lead.

It sounds quite interesting. Basically very, very personalist.

He's a far-right nutter with a big Tik Tok following, she's compared to Margaret Thatcher but is best known for winning Celebrity Masterchef.

Meanwhile the Social Democrats (who were expected to come first) did dreadfully in the Presidential election but have held up really well in various local and mayoral elections.

We are feeling defeatist because we are feeling powerless. Our society seems hopelessly divided on helping the Ukrainians and many seem sure they abandoning Ukraine will lead to universal peace and supporting them will lead to world war.

That is stupid, but here we are.

The UK is not at all divided on it. Still overwhelming support for Ukraine and arming Ukraine, which is also true in a few other European countries. Problem here isn't public opinion.

[Barrister]

Russia is crumbling absolutely. But they've the advantage of autocracy and a brainwashed population.
They also smell blood. They scored a huge victory with trump winning. They'll be believing another good campaigning season and Ukraine is done. They just have to hang on.

Russians aren't totally brainwashed.

Now don't get me wrong - they're not going to rise up over the total injustice of Russia's war in Ukraine.

But over their own living standards?  There's a reason why Putin hasn't introduced full mobilization.  There's a reason he's been so worried about the exchange rate.

[HisMajestyBOB]

We are feeling defeatist because we are feeling powerless. Our society seems hopelessly divided on helping the Ukrainians and many seem sure they abandoning Ukraine will lead to universal peace and supporting them will lead to world war.

That is stupid, but here we are.

Also, worst case is that not only does US support stop, but Russia starts getting useful intel from their supporters in the Trump regime.

[Barrister]

We are feeling defeatist because we are feeling powerless. Our society seems hopelessly divided on helping the Ukrainians and many seem sure they abandoning Ukraine will lead to universal peace and supporting them will lead to world war.

That is stupid, but here we are.

Also, worst case is that not only does US support stop, but Russia starts getting useful intel from their supporters in the Trump regime.

The one thing though is at this point it's hard to imagine that Putin has any "kompromat' on Trump that is any worse than what has already come out about him.  He's been impeached twice, convicted in one case, adjudicated a rapist in a civil case, accused of multiple sexual assaults... what difference would it make is a pee tape came out?

Don't get me wrong - Putin is happier that Trump won than Harris, but Russian TV has been fairly tepid in its celebrations and is indeed been kind of insulting - re-publishing Melania's naked photo shoot from years ago.

So while not impossible, I have my doubts that Trump (or others) are going to just start releasing Ukrainian troop positions to the Russians.  Plus Zelenskyy I think had grown weary of leaks from the West anyways and doesn't share everything with the US (like how the Kursk offensive was a surprise to the US).

[Josquius]

Russia is crumbling absolutely. But they've the advantage of autocracy and a brainwashed population.
They also smell blood. They scored a huge victory with trump winning. They'll be believing another good campaigning season and Ukraine is done. They just have to hang on.

Russians aren't totally brainwashed.

Now don't get me wrong - they're not going to rise up over the total injustice of Russia's war in Ukraine.

But over their own living standards?  There's a reason why Putin hasn't introduced full mobilization.  There's a reason he's been so worried about the exchange rate.

I don't know. That's definitely the worry with the major cities: the only place he cares about.
But at the same time control there is tight. Any whiff of dissent is stamped out.
People might grow upset but will they risk their lives doing something?

Then in most of Russia....

[Barrister]

I don't know. That's definitely the worry with the major cities: the only place he cares about.
But at the same time control there is tight. Any whiff of dissent is stamped out.
People might grow upset but will they risk their lives doing something?

It's like many autocratic societies.  Government support is strong but brittle.  The reason Putin 'stamps out any whiff of support' is not because he feels secure, but because he feels weak.

If things were just staying the same Putin would stay in power for a long time - but things are getting worse in Russia, not better.  Putin could survive for a long time because he saved Russia from the 90s collapse (according to Russians) and things were getting better.  That's no longer the case.

[Sheilbh]

Also any whiff of dissent isn't wiped out. From everything I've read that's not how Putin's regime works - it's political technologists, not Beria and Stalin.

[Barrister]

Also any whiff of dissent isn't wiped out. From everything I've read that's not how Putin's regime works - it's political technologists, not Beria and Stalin.

It's not "Beria and Stalin", but there's definite repression.

This is a regime who arrests people for holding up blank signs.  The notion you can be arrested by the police at any time, for almost any reason, is well understood.  The fact you'll go to prison rather than murdered in the gulag is only feint re-assurance.

[Sheilbh]

Oh sure - I'm not disputing that it's a repressive regime.

But it's often more through managing dissent. Some is dangerous and swiftly repressed, but in other circumstances the regime is, broadly, very happy with (and often creates or colludes in creating) ineffective dissent and opposition. It's a useful outlet, it maintains an experience of some normality and it's part of the spoils system.

[Zoupa]

Sure, but it's also helped by the fact that there is VERY little dissent to begin with.

The diaspora is more pro-Putin than russians in russia. And the russian "opposition"?

lol.

There is no need for us to expect help on that front or worry about russia itself. Whatever happens there is for russians to deal with. We just need to keep them out of their neighbours.

[DGuller]

From what I understand, you're still free to be a malcontent in Russia, if you don't organize.  Whether by design or because of insufficient power/resolve, Russia is not totalitarian.  That said, it's definitely easier to live your life if you believe everything shown on Fox News Channel 1.

[Neil]

I want to be able to retain 'Kiev' in the English language.  I'm tired of being hectored by random people whenever I use the same spelling that we've been using for two hundred years. 

[crazy canuck]

BB incoming in 5,4,3...

[Barrister]

I want to be able to retain 'Kiev' in the English language.  I'm tired of being hectored by random people whenever I use the same spelling that we've been using for two hundred years. 

So I'm as pro-Ukrainian as you get, and I tend to support this.  When speaking in English we use English names.  It's Germany not Deuthschland, Rome not Roma, Moscow not Moskva - and yes Kiev is fine (although I have kind of switched to Kiyev for virtue-signalling, but won't hector you for Kiev).

The one thing I will gently reprimand for is "The" Ukraine though - as no other country has a definite article like that.

But even here - Ukraine is fine, not Ukraina.

[Sheilbh]

The Netherlands, ignored again

I don't really agree. We don't use English names because English isn't a language that sticks to rules like that. English usage changes over time and with it what we say.

So it's Livorno not Leghorn. One day it might be Venezia not Venice, but not yet. Some names become part of English, others don't and slip and slide over time. But I think it's likely to be Kyiv not Kiev for the foreseeable.