Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Josquius]

They've changed the article. It said leftist before.
Centre right vs. fascist should neuter some of the far right nonsense. No idea how the Romanians are thinking though and whether they might have problems with Trumpy level just want to see it all burn.

Then there's the Russian interference...

edit: Heh, seems I had the tab open still with the original version.

Shock in Romania as hard-right Nato critic Calin Georgescu takes lead in presidential election
Georgescu, who has called Nato's ballistic missile defence shield a 'shame of diplomacy', will likely head into a run-off with leftist prime minister Marcel Ciolacu

A little-known, far-right populist took the lead in Romania's presidential election on Sunday, electoral data showed, and will probably face leftist prime minister Marcel Ciolacu in a runoff in two weeks, an outcome that has rocked the country's political landscape.

Calin Georgescu, who ran independently, led the polls with about 22% of the vote after nearly 93% of votes were counted, while Ciolacu of the Social Democratic party, or PSD, trailed at 21%. Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union party, or USR, stood at about 18%, and George Simion, the leader of the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, or AUR, took about 14%.

Curious it isn't obviously mentioned anywhere that it has been updated or is a live feed.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, weird that the article didn't note the correction from the previous version.

It might make you feel better to know that the CBC news report was also reading from the easier reporting.  So the source of that error was probably the general reporting service that the guardian and CBC got their information from initially.

[Zoupa]

I think it's becoming increasingly obvious that peace is going to come through a negotiated settlement that will see Ukraine lose territory. The Russkies have the advantage now and I think the Ukrainians have lost the will to fight.  And Trump will get all the credit.

I think none of that is true or gonna happen.

[crazy canuck]

What do you think will happen?

[Zoupa]

What do you think will happen?

I think I've said this before, but Ukraine wins by staying in the fight. It's not going to win by maneuver warfare or a brilliant new weapon system, not against the biggest country on earth with 5 times its population.

They win by making the russian army collapse, either because the center is so corrupt and unstable that they leave Ukraine, or their logistics are so degraded that they needto leave Ukraine. That's why Kursk is important and why hitting refineries and factories 1000 km deep into russia matters.

[Josquius]

What do you think will happen?

I think I've said this before, but Ukraine wins by staying in the fight. It's not going to win by maneuver warfare or a brilliant new weapon system, not against the biggest country on earth with 5 times its population.

They win by making the russian army collapse, either because the center is so corrupt and unstable that they leave Ukraine, or their logistics are so degraded that they needto leave Ukraine. That's why Kursk is important and why hitting refineries and factories 1000 km deep into russia matters.

How is Ukraine going to stay in the fight when everyone willing to fight has already signed up, there's huge reluctance for conscription (and that would massively reduce quality if they push it through), and their supply of basic arms is looking dubious?

Things do look pretty grim right now.

[Zoupa]

It's funny/sad that there's more defeatism in the West than when I talk to actual soldiers in the trenches.

[Grey Fox]

It's funny/sad that there's more defeatism in the West than when I talk to actual soldiers in the trenches.

We can't get our politicians to do anything about, well, anything.

[Josquius]

It's funny/sad that there's more defeatism in the West than when I talk to actual soldiers in the trenches.

To be fair isn't putting a positive spin on things for foreign supporters part of their job description?

And I was seriously asking for solutions there BTW.

[Valmy]

We are feeling defeatist because we are feeling powerless. Our society seems hopelessly divided on helping the Ukrainians and many seem sure they abandoning Ukraine will lead to universal peace and supporting them will lead to world war.

That is stupid, but here we are.

[Barrister]

What do you think will happen?

I think I've said this before, but Ukraine wins by staying in the fight. It's not going to win by maneuver warfare or a brilliant new weapon system, not against the biggest country on earth with 5 times its population.

They win by making the russian army collapse, either because the center is so corrupt and unstable that they leave Ukraine, or their logistics are so degraded that they needto leave Ukraine. That's why Kursk is important and why hitting refineries and factories 1000 km deep into russia matters.

It's taking longer than you or I thought or hoped, but the Russian economy is bad and getting worse.

Ruble passed 100:1 dollar exchange rate.  Interest rates are 21%, inflation at 8.5%, while unemployment is at 3.87% (there's just no workers left) - they're in stagflation.  Increasing shortages of critical goods.

Plus Putin can't accept a frozen conflict now - he has to have sanctions lifted.  That would mean a complete Russian victory - Russia takes new lands and gets rewarded by lifting sanctions - perhaps even the ones from 2014.  I think even Trump would balk at such an abject surrender.

How does it end in Ukrainian victory?  Hard to say for sure.  It'll happen slowly, then all at once.  Russian coup?  Army revolt? General degradation of Russian military?  Civil war?  I couldn't say.

[Admiral Yi]

What was the X rate before the war?

[Valmy]

What was the X rate before the war?

Back in the day it was 30 Rubles to the Dollar generally. I do not know exactly what it was in 2022.

[Barrister]

What was the X rate before the war?

It was 60-70 pre-war, spiked well over 100 right when the war started but the central bank intervened and the ruble exchange rate went (for a little while) to even lower later in 2022.

But it's been steadily increasing since then, indicating the Russian central bank is losing its ability to influence the exchange rate (at least without ever-increasingly punitive interest rates).

[Josquius]

Russia is crumbling absolutely. But they've the advantage of autocracy and a brainwashed population.
They also smell blood. They scored a huge victory with trump winning. They'll be believing another good campaigning season and Ukraine is done. They just have to hang on.