Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Brain]

In 20, 50 or 100 years nobody will care or remember your inflation reduction act, they'll remember how you mishandled this conflict.

[Valmy]

Ukraine starting to say the obvious: either we get into NATO or we will pursue nuclear weapons.

Great conflict escalation management from Biden & co.

In 20, 50 or 100 years nobody will care or remember your inflation reduction act, they'll remember how you mishandled this conflict.

As I said, the main lesson everybody is going to take from Russia's actions is that everybody needs nuclear weapons.

And hey didn't the US guarantee Ukraine's borders in exchange for them destroying their nukes?

[The Minsky Moment]

And hey didn't the US guarantee Ukraine's borders in exchange for them destroying their nukes?

No.  The US (and Russia and the UK) agreed to respect the existing borders and refrain from any military action.  The US did not guarantee the borders. It agreed to seek immediate UN Security Council action to secure assistance to Ukraine in the event of attack.

https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/g94/652/92/pdf/g9465292.pdf

[Josquius]

Apparently the Ukraine will get nukes comment is being denied? Down to a shitty German tabloid?

But it would make sense for them to go that way if the nato door is locked.
To make that threat now would not be wise.

[Barrister]

Apparently the Ukraine will get nukes comment is being denied? Down to a shitty German tabloid?

But it would make sense for them to go that way if the nato door is locked.
To make that threat now would not be wise.

Why wouldn't it be wise?

I sometimes wonder just how hard nuclear weapons really is - I mean 1940s US could do it, the theoretical technology is out there.  North Korea, Pakistan and India have confirmed nukes, Israel has all-but confirmed nukes, and apartheid South Africa is widely believed to have had some as well before abandoning them.  Iran is a big question mark.

Ukraine has a long history with nuclear technology, much of soviet weapons technology was based in the former Ukrainian SSR.  At this point anyone with first-hand experience is likely of no assistance, but it has a lot of people with both nuclear and weapons experience.

If NATO is a confirmed "no" why wouldn't Ukraine pursue a nuclear weapons program?  It on the one hand might mean a cessation of western aid (no small thing!), but would likely ensure the ongoing safety of the remainder of the country.

[Josquius]

Apparently the Ukraine will get nukes comment is being denied? Down to a shitty German tabloid?

But it would make sense for them to go that way if the nato door is locked.
To make that threat now would not be wise.

Why wouldn't it be wise?

I

Ukraine want to present as the good guys (because they are).
Nations that respect international law don't develop nuclear weapons.
Threatening nato let us in or else.... That's not cool and unlikely to move nato - when Ukraine is already on the EU and nato entry path it seems mad.


And yeah. Pretty sure Ukraine is amongst those who could get them super quick if they wanted.

[The Brain]

I sometimes wonder just how hard nuclear weapons really is - I mean 1940s US could do it, the theoretical technology is out there.  North Korea, Pakistan and India have confirmed nukes, Israel has all-but confirmed nukes, and apartheid South Africa is widely believed to have had some as well before abandoning them.  Iran is a big question mark.

Your impression that it isn't very hard is correct, just like that list of countries indicates. Any country with a nuclear industry has the technical capability to get nukes. It takes some money and some time, but the technical side isn't the big challenge.

Most countries of course have signed the NPT and are reluctant to leave the treaty or go rogue. Then there's creating a viable weapon system that can deliver warheads and survive first strikes. Then there's having a meaningful nuclear strategy.

Sweden is a fairly interesting case, and there's a nice RAND report from the 90s available online on why Sweden chose to abandon its atomic bomb program.

[Zoupa]

Apparently the Ukraine will get nukes comment is being denied? Down to a shitty German tabloid?

But it would make sense for them to go that way if the nato door is locked.
To make that threat now would not be wise.

Why wouldn't it be wise?

I

Ukraine want to present as the good guys (because they are).
Nations that respect international law don't develop nuclear weapons.
Threatening nato let us in or else.... That's not cool and unlikely to move nato - when Ukraine is already on the EU and nato entry path it seems mad.


And yeah. Pretty sure Ukraine is amongst those who could get them super quick if they wanted.

I guarantee you Ukrainians do no give a fuck about being seen by westerners as the good guys, after 10 years of inaction and broken promises from the west. This is an existential fight. If NATO is a no, how exactly are they supposed to safeguard their state from a genocidal neighbor like muscovy?

[Zoupa]

Btw Ukraine signed the NPT. NPT article 10:

Article X

1. Each Party shall in exercising its national sovereignty have the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events, related to the subject matter of this Treaty, have jeopardized the supreme interests of its country. It shall give notice of such withdrawal to all other Parties to the Treaty and to the United Nations Security Council three months in advance. Such notice shall include a statement of the extraordinary events it regards as having jeopardized its supreme interests.

Not that any of this shit matters anymore. The international order is dead. Taiwanese people must be shitting bricks.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Imagine Trump winning and blowing up NATO: I'm pretty sure we'll see a number of Eastern European states work towards nukes sooner rather than later. Skandies too, maybe.
Ukraine should have (in case they didn't) started working towards nukes the moment the Russians invaded again in 2022 (and even better, in 2014. North Korea shows that shitholes of countries can build nukes too and Ukraine was never that far gone as the DPRK)

[The Brain]

Apparently the Ukraine will get nukes comment is being denied? Down to a shitty German tabloid?

But it would make sense for them to go that way if the nato door is locked.
To make that threat now would not be wise.

Why wouldn't it be wise?

I

Nations that respect international law don't develop nuclear weapons.

Several nuke countries haven't signed the NPT. And NPT countries can withdraw from the treaty (as Zoupa already mentioned). No need to violate any international law.

[Admiral Yi]

Why suddenly this talk of not getting into NATO?

[Zoupa]

Zelenskyy was visiting NATO HQ and presenting his peace plan, so naturally the question came up.

Plus Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey, possibly Germany and their usual shenanigans.

[The Brain]

Why suddenly this talk of not getting into NATO?

Getting into NATO isn't trivial. You have to have a Plan B.

[Barrister]

I guarantee you Ukrainians do no give a fuck about being seen by westerners as the good guys, after 10 years of inaction and broken promises from the west. This is an existential fight. If NATO is a no, how exactly are they supposed to safeguard their state from a genocidal neighbor like muscovy?

I mean I would disagree - they very much care about being seen as "the good guys" as it helps ensure ongoing western aid.  Ukraine has put a lot of effort into their PR.

BUt if it came down to the point where the loss of "good guy" status is outweighed by the survival of the country?  I have zero doubt they'd make that trade 10 times out of 10.