Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[DGuller]

Let's also not forget that soldiers don't serve in their country, they serve in their unit.  It doesn't matter how much you love your country and find the war justified for your side, it would still be a hard sell to serve if you don't believe your military command will respect your life.  Ukraine was still a Soviet republic after all, and USSR wasn't known for preserving its human capital in the armed forces.

[viper37]

Second day of gov sites hacked.
But the joke I'd on them since we don't have gov yet... it's only 4 months in after all

You guys do the Corsican thing too?  Throw the ballot box to the sea, then fight to pick the strongest one to lead?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Second day of gov sites hacked.
But the joke I'd on them since we don't have gov yet... it's only 4 months in after all

You guys do the Corsican thing too?  Throw the ballot box to the sea, then fight to pick the strongest one to lead?

Close, we throw te ballots out and then do nothing for 12 to 18 months, cause why bother anyway

[viper37]

Second day of gov sites hacked.
But the joke I'd on them since we don't have gov yet... it's only 4 months in after all

You guys do the Corsican thing too?  Throw the ballot box to the sea, then fight to pick the strongest one to lead?

Close, we throw te ballots out and then do nothing for 12 to 18 months, cause why bother anyway

I think I like my political system after all.

[crazy canuck]

Let's also not forget that soldiers don't serve in their country, they serve in their unit.  It doesn't matter how much you love your country and find the war justified for your side, it would still be a hard sell to serve if you don't believe your military command will respect your life.  Ukraine was still a Soviet republic after all, and USSR wasn't known for preserving its human capital in the armed forces.

Is there any evidence Ukrainian commanders are showing similar disregard for their troops?

[Zoupa]

yes, but not as widespread as in the russian army. It's also getting worse, as a lot of the best commanders are now either dead or injured since 24Feb2022.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Reality is that if we don't help Ukraine with the intent to win, and thus decisively defeat russia,  Ukraine will lose eventually.

[Josquius]

I've definitely heard of small scale mutinies in the  Ukrainian army against some crappy "Soviet style" commanders.

It looks like the 100k figure comes from some guy saying something on Reddit.  CNN reported about 19k a couple of months ago and noted that figure was understated because many commanders were giving the soldiers a chance to come back.  So it might be up to 100k, but what is missing then is the number of soldiers returning to their units after being given that second chance.

Some guy =Arestovych.
I don't know him but former presidential advisor apparently. Why former...

[Valmy]

Reality is that if we don't help Ukraine with the intent to win, and thus decisively defeat russia,  Ukraine will lose eventually.

It does kind of make you wonder what our strategic intent is. Let Russia win but just hope they suffer so much that they are defanged? Is the concern that if Ukraine were to humiliate Russia, Russia would what? Nuke everyone in shame?

[Josquius]

Reality is that if we don't help Ukraine with the intent to win, and thus decisively defeat russia,  Ukraine will lose eventually.

It does kind of make you wonder what our strategic intent is. Let Russia win but just hope they suffer so much that they are defanged? Is the concern that if Ukraine were to humiliate Russia, Russia would what? Nuke everyone in shame?

I think the fear there is less stronk Putin will use his nukes and more if he becomes too weak and Russia starts to fall apart some of those weapons would fall into the hands of people who make trump seem a kind hearted stable genius.

Though if this is the concern and a strong and stable Russia is desired you'd think a sharp quick defeat of Russia would be better than a long drawn out war of attrition

[grumbler]

Let's also not forget that soldiers don't serve in their country, they serve in their unit.  It doesn't matter how much you love your country and find the war justified for your side, it would still be a hard sell to serve if you don't believe your military command will respect your life.  Ukraine was still a Soviet republic after all, and USSR wasn't known for preserving its human capital in the armed forces.

How many active-duty Ukrainian soldiers that are vets of the Soviet army do you figure there are, given that Ukraine became independent in August 1991 - more than 33 years ago?

[Tonitrus]

Fair point...but I doubt Soviet military doctrine stops on a dime.  I think it'd be fair to factor in probably at least an additional 10-15 years of inertia after 1991 when Ukraine was still vacillating between East and West.

[jimmy olsen]

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4924544-russia-casualties-ukraine-us-official/

Russia has suffered more than 600K casualties in Ukraine, US official says

by Brad Dress - 10/09/24 4:06 PM ET

Russia has suffered more than 600,000 casualties in the war with Ukraine, a senior U.S. defense official said Wednesday.

The number of Russian dead or wounded is significantly higher than the last official update from the U.S., which had estimated more than 300,000 casualties since the war began in February 2022.

The U.S. official said Russia sustained more casualties in September of this year than at any other point in the war, and explained it was important to disclose the casualties even if it is not a "definitive metric" of success in the conflict.

Russian President Vladimir Putin "is trying to avoid a mass mobilization because of the effect that would have on Russia's domestic population," the official told reporters. "At this point, he has been able to significantly increase the pay of these voluntary soldiers, and he has been able to continue to field those forces without doing a major mobilization."

"And I think we're just watching very closely how long that stance can actually be one that he can maintain, and I think it's an important one for all of us to watch very closely," the official added.

Russia has also lost 32 medium-to-large naval vessels to Ukraine, which has hammered Russian forces in the Black Sea with drones, and "destroyed more than two-thirds of Russia's prewar inventory of tanks," according to the U.S. official. Ukraine has also destroyed hundreds of thousands of ammunition rounds in targeted strikes.

The U.S. has not disclosed the number of Ukrainian casualties. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in February that some 31,000 troops had been killed.

Russian forces have continued to press forward on the battlefield stretching across a 600-mile front of eastern Ukraine, using a strategy of deploying mass waves of troops to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses despite the risk of high casualties.

Russia has made some progress in the eastern Donetsk region, taking the town of Vuhledar earlier this month and pressing toward the city of Pokrovsk, a railroad hub and critical supply station for Ukraine that could hinder Kyiv's defense efforts if it falls.

A senior U.S. military official said the Russian strategy, particularly around Vuhledar and Pokrovsk, has incurred "substantial casualties" for minor gains.

"The number of Russians in [Pokrovsk] is astounding, it's tens of thousands of forces," the official said. "When you have that many forces in a very small area, indirect fire of any kind, or any direct fire, for that matter, it's a target-rich environment."

Heavy fighting is also in Russia's region of Kursk, which Ukrainian forces invaded in early August in a largely failed bid to divert Russian troops from the front lines. Kyiv has said other goals, including preventing a Russian assault from Kursk, have been achieved in the incursion.

The senior military official said Wednesday that the Ukrainian troops can hold onto the territory in Kursk for months or longer.

The military official added there have been "overall minor changes" on the battlefield in both Kursk and Donetsk in recent weeks, adding that Russia is expected to continue its mass pressure campaign, but Ukraine is "thinking forward to 2025" with an eye on boosting brigades with recruitment.

The U.S. is continuing to pour billions of dollars into the fight to defend Ukraine. Last month, President Biden announced around $8 billion for Kyiv that will be sent over from U.S. defense stocks or purchased from private industry and deployed through January. The money is the last available funds for Ukraine's security needs that was approved by Congress in April.

Zelensky, who was in the U.S. for a United Nations General Assembly meeting last month, presented a victory plan to Biden when he visited the president at the White House. The details of that plan have yet to be released.

Biden was expected to hold a key meeting of Western leaders in Germany this weekend to discuss supporting Ukraine, but the trip was canceled as the U.S. grapples with the response to Hurricane Helene and the incoming powerful Hurricane Milton.

Despite Zelensky's frequent calls, the Biden administration has refused to reverse a policy that prevents Ukraine from using U.S.-made weapons, such as the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), to strike deep inside of Russia and damage Russian airfields to damage capabilities and prevent the use of powerful weapons like glide bombs.

The U.S. is primarily concerned about escalation. Putin last month issued a threat when he said that Russia could deploy tactical nuclear weapons against a country backed by a nuclear power.

The U.S. defense official said they are still not considering reversing the policy, saying the ammunition for deep strikes has "finite quantities" and they have to "look at risks of escalation."

"In terms of effectiveness, we also have to look at whether the quantities that exist — and again, they are limited — whether they would have the strategic effect," the official said. "And we certainly know that many of the capabilities that are of greatest concern, particularly for glide bomb use, for instance, have actually moved out beyond ATACMS range."

[DGuller]

Let's also not forget that soldiers don't serve in their country, they serve in their unit.  It doesn't matter how much you love your country and find the war justified for your side, it would still be a hard sell to serve if you don't believe your military command will respect your life.  Ukraine was still a Soviet republic after all, and USSR wasn't known for preserving its human capital in the armed forces.

How many active-duty Ukrainian soldiers that are vets of the Soviet army do you figure there are, given that Ukraine became independent in August 1991 - more than 33 years ago?

Probably quite a few, given that Ukraine consciously uses old guys to avoid a demographic collapse. 

However, the point wasn't even about that, but about the culture.  If you were a Ukrainian doing your two years in 1995, you would still be doing those two years in the army run by ex-Soviet officers.  Probably the same goes for 2000, or 2005.  If you were doing your two years in 2010, most of your officers probably didn't serve in the Soviet army, but they served in the Ukrainian army in 1995, or 2000, or 2005.  Culture doesn't change on a dime, especially when until 2014 Ukrainian army wasn't under any pressure to be effective.

[crazy canuck]

Fair point...but I doubt Soviet military doctrine stops on a dime.  I think it'd be fair to factor in probably at least an additional 10-15 years of inertia after 1991 when Ukraine was still vacillating between East and West.

yes, but not as widespread as in the russian army. It's also getting worse, as a lot of the best commanders are now either dead or injured since 24Feb2022.

What are the examples you are thinking about?  I thought that the Ukrainians were being cautious with their manpower and especially because they are fighting an opponent whose main advantage is manpower.