Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Josquius]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/10/hungary-viktor-orban-republicans-ukraine-aid?s=03

Why cannot Orban be sanctioned for supporting Russia's war effort?

Same old story of the EU stupidly not accounting for backsliding and dropping/in his case diving below standards?

[Grey Fox]

My kids are answering letters to Santa Claus as part of Canada Post Santa Claus program. Some of the letters are from Ukrainian refugees. Inevitably talks about their struggle for independence and how we should all do more. Makes me cry.

[Josquius]

Unconfirmed rumour of the day -

.

RUSSIAN ARTILLERY ISSUES

It seems the N.Korean 152mm shells are proving to be less of a bonus than the Russians might have hoped.
Estimates that only 6 in 10 actually fire and two of those are duds seem pretty common.
One of the biggest issues is poor fuses, followed by poor quality manufacturing. The worst is by all accounts over and under charging. This means that when fired the shell can either explode in the barrel, overshoots the target or undershoots the target. Consistency is the name of the game when producing ammunition of any kind and it seems the slave labour camps of N Korea don't offer that as a selling point. Unsurprisingly the whole 'buy North Korean' project has been a bit of a dud.
Meanwhile S.Korea has manufactured more shells in ONE MONTH (330,000) than the EU has managed in 6. You have to ask yourself how they can, and yet 27 counties in Europe, can't manage it, when three of them are in the top 7 industrial nations in the world.
 

[Grey Fox]

Is it because South Korean munition manufacturers were going to produce that amount anyway?

[Legbiter]

Unconfirmed rumour of the day -

.

RUSSIAN ARTILLERY ISSUES

It seems the N.Korean 152mm shells are proving to be less of a bonus than the Russians might have hoped.
Estimates that only 6 in 10 actually fire and two of those are duds seem pretty common.
One of the biggest issues is poor fuses, followed by poor quality manufacturing. The worst is by all accounts over and under charging. This means that when fired the shell can either explode in the barrel, overshoots the target or undershoots the target. Consistency is the name of the game when producing ammunition of any kind and it seems the slave labour camps of N Korea don't offer that as a selling point. Unsurprisingly the whole 'buy North Korean' project has been a bit of a dud.
Meanwhile S.Korea has manufactured more shells in ONE MONTH (330,000) than the EU has managed in 6. You have to ask yourself how they can, and yet 27 counties in Europe, can't manage it, when three of them are in the top 7 industrial nations in the world.
 

The Russians upscaled their own artillery shell production and put their economy on a war footing a year ago. 30% of the Kremlin budget goes towards the war at this point. 

Russians don't give a shit about their own casualties. Putin will feed everyone into the grinder to keep the war going. Meanwhile the supporters of Ukraine have schemes to increase production of the basics that will come online in 2025...

Many seem ambivalent about Ukraine just outright winning the war or at least rolling the vatniks back to the status quo ante bellum. Sanctions have been successfully bypassed with front companies in Central Asia sourcing everything the Russian military complex needs to operate their European CNC machines with regard to inputs (spares, cutting fluids, technical services, etc).

[grumbler]

Is it because South Korean munition manufacturers were going to produce that amount anyway?

Close to it.  SK has been pursuing increased FMS for some years now.  I recall reading a year or so ago that SK produces more NATO-standard howitzers than the rest of the world combined.  You have to think that shell output has increased accordingly.

South Korean prices on ships (warships and merchant ships) are in the "seems too good to be true" category, but may well be legit.

[Jacob]

So basically, South Korea has become "the arsenal of NATO" (outside of the US, naturally) by aggressively pursuing efficiencies at scale?

[Sheilbh]

So basically, South Korea has become "the arsenal of NATO" (outside of the US, naturally) by aggressively pursuing efficiencies at scale?

It's not happened yet because they're just launching it in the last few months but I'd watch Poland to become the South Korea of Europe. I think they've more than doubled their defence budget - have got French, British and South Korean firms opening plants in Poland and intend to very substantively re-arm but also ensure there's domestic production without being too reliant on any one country's arms industry.

[Jacob]

It's a pretty good opportunity for Poland, I think. They have an obvious and practical interest in being militarily strong. It will generate technological and industrial benefits, and provide jobs and economic growth.

And in the medium term, it does not look like we're about to enter an era of peace and disarmament so there'll be a market for the products as well.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Unconfirmed rumour of the day -

.

RUSSIAN ARTILLERY ISSUES

It seems the N.Korean 152mm shells are proving to be less of a bonus than the Russians might have hoped.
Estimates that only 6 in 10 actually fire and two of those are duds seem pretty common.
One of the biggest issues is poor fuses, followed by poor quality manufacturing. The worst is by all accounts over and under charging. This means that when fired the shell can either explode in the barrel, overshoots the target or undershoots the target. Consistency is the name of the game when producing ammunition of any kind and it seems the slave labour camps of N Korea don't offer that as a selling point. Unsurprisingly the whole 'buy North Korean' project has been a bit of a dud.
Meanwhile S.Korea has manufactured more shells in ONE MONTH (330,000) than the EU has managed in 6. You have to ask yourself how they can, and yet 27 counties in Europe, can't manage it, when three of them are in the top 7 industrial nations in the world.
 

The Russians upscaled their own artillery shell production and put their economy on a war footing a year ago. 30% of the Kremlin budget goes towards the war at this point. 

Russians don't give a shit about their own casualties. Putin will feed everyone into the grinder to keep the war going. Meanwhile the supporters of Ukraine have schemes to increase production of the basics that will come online in 2025...

Many seem ambivalent about Ukraine just outright winning the war or at least rolling the vatniks back to the status quo ante bellum. Sanctions have been successfully bypassed with front companies in Central Asia sourcing everything the Russian military complex needs to operate their European CNC machines with regard to inputs (spares, cutting fluids, technical services, etc).

The longer the west dithers on smacking the Russians back to the steppes, the less serious the rivals of the west will take the west.

[Grey Fox]

The west must lose before it takes anything serious enough to win.

[jimmy olsen]

Uh, that doesn't sound like a one month fix job to me

https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-intelligence-attacks-paralyses-russias-134100691.html

"During the special operation, military spies managed to break into one of the well-protected key central servers of the Federal Taxation Service (FTS of the Russian Federation), and then into more than 2,300 of its regional servers throughout Russia, as well as on the territory of temporarily occupied Crimea.

As a result of the cyberattack, all servers were infected with malware...

The Russians have been unsuccessfully trying to restore the work of the Russian tax authorities for the fourth day in a row. The experts say the paralysis in the work of the Federal Taxation Service of the Russian Federation will last at least a month. At the same time, resuscitation of the tax system of the aggressor state in full is impossible."

[Valmy]

Attacks like that might win over the support of the Russian people.

[grumbler]

So basically, South Korea has become "the arsenal of NATO" (outside of the US, naturally) by aggressively pursuing efficiencies at scale?

It's not happened yet because they're just launching it in the last few months but I'd watch Poland to become the South Korea of Europe. I think they've more than doubled their defence budget - have got French, British and South Korean firms opening plants in Poland and intend to very substantively re-arm but also ensure there's domestic production without being too reliant on any one country's arms industry.

Poland and South Korea have entered an agreement to do just this.  Poland gets access to some SK technology and buys licenses from SK, and SK in turn gets access to the EU market by meeting some of the "made in EU" requirements.

[Sheilbh]

Poland and South Korea have entered an agreement to do just this.  Poland gets access to some SK technology and buys licenses from SK, and SK in turn gets access to the EU market by meeting some of the "made in EU" requirements.

It makes sense. I genuinely think the centre of gravity in Europe has moved East because of the war and that Poland is going to end up as a bit like an Eastern European France - with a genuine military capability and industrial base (and as I tend to think politics follows material facts, that will transform European politics).

I get the frustration from Poland that they've basically said they can't help arm Ukraine anymore (with weapons - they're still sending money as support). But I think for Poland it is justifiable. They've basically said that they've emptied their stocks supplying Ukraine and have now doubled their defence budget, intend to build a military industrial complex and substantially re-arm. Once they've done that for themselves they will obviously be sending weapons to Ukraine again.

I think Europe in general is moving decisively on this (see Scholz's recent speech, endorsed by Lindner) but it is a bit of a tanker so it moves slowly. But for the frustration at Poland, I think they are a country that is moving quickly and is taking a realistic approach. They share a border with Russia and Belarus - and I think it is absolutely justifiable for them to say having done a huge amount to help Ukraine they need to make sure they're able to defend themselves. It'd be nice if the countries further West (like the UK) were stepping up more on building weapons in order to supply Ukraine as our need to re-arm is less urgent (still urgent, but less).