Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Barrister]

President Zelenskyy addressing the Canadian Parliament, and starts by giving props to Edmonton.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/zelenskyy-speech-parliament-1.6975232

[crazy canuck]

President Zelenskyy addressing the Canadian Parliament, and starts by giving props to Edmonton.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/zelenskyy-speech-parliament-1.6975232

It was an effective set up for his point that it could not be raised first in Ukraine because they were not yet independent.  It also set up his punchline that another monument could be raised in Edmonton when victory is achieved.

[mongers]

I can see the Georgians attempting to 'unfreeze' their conflicts in Abhkazia and South Ossettia during the next 15 month before Trump gets back in.

[Josquius]

I can see the Georgians attempting to 'unfreeze' their conflicts in Abhkazia and South Ossettia during the next 15 month before Trump gets back in.

Surely that would be a huge error if they believe trump is getting back in?
That's a decision best taken when you've 4 years of competent non-Russian stooge led American government ahead.

[Jacob]

Interesting read on the state of the artillery war: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/23/2194180/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-was-unprepared-for-a-modern-artillery-war

Apparently the Ukrainians are winning.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I can see the Georgians attempting to 'unfreeze' their conflicts in Abhkazia and South Ossettia during the next 15 month before Trump gets back in.

Surely that would be a huge error if they believe trump is getting back in?
That's a decision best taken when you've 4 years of competent non-Russian stooge led American government ahead.

Depends... would Trump want to be known as the president with small hands that lost bigly to Russia?

But it would be nice if didn't have to find out

[Josquius]

That crimean hq attack gets more amazing the more you read about it.
Truly heist movie level abstract planning.

[Barrister]

That crimean hq attack gets more amazing the more you read about it.
Truly heist movie level abstract planning.

Links?

[Josephus]

Hearing they killed a lot of Russkie top guys in that attack

[viper37]

That crimean hq attack gets more amazing the more you read about it.
Truly heist movie level abstract planning.

Links?

I can't find it, but basically, some Russian naval officers complained they weren't paid on time.  The word passed to the Ukrainian resistance, then to the Ukrainian command and the raid was set up to kill high value military target.

[Josquius]

No summary link to hand but a summary post

ARROGANCE AND INTEL

I'd like to wander down the path of human behaviour and how it's been used to great effect  by Ukrainian intelligence.
The death of the CinC of the Black Sea Fleet is a huge deal.  Just think about it, a senior commander of a combat operation fleet has been killed in his office by a missile that was actually observed to FLY IN THROUGH THE WINDOW of his wing of the building.
Not since the Americans shot down the Japanese CinC Admiral Yamamoto, in the Pacific, in WW2 after ambushing his plane, has such a thing occurred.
Add to that the rest of the commanders from the army who were also present and killed or injured so badly they will be out of action for weeks.
This Admiral was one of the highest ranking officers in the Navy, the only person in the world this past two decades to command a fleet of warships in the middle of a major ongoing war. He commanded ships that let loose hundreds of missiles against civilian targets across Ukraine.
He had in effect been slowly manipulated into a vulnerable position by having his primary and secondary command centres knocked out days before. The arrogance of the Russians is such they moved back to what was clearly an unfortified building in the open in Sevastopol and they trusted the anti-air systems to protect it. Well it  didn't. It didn't even cross their arrogant minds that they were in any danger at all.
Now have a look at the Kursk incident- The Kahlino Airbase was struck by drones yesterday - its home to the 14th Guards Fighter Aviation Regiment which I understand is equipped with Su-30SM aircraft.
The wounded and dead included:
The Aviation Regiment Commander, his deputy, a group of officers including senior pilots, a member of the FSB Military Counter Intelligence and a number of senior airbase staff.
None of these people in their wildest dreams seem to have any concept that they're in the crosshairs of Ukrainian forces.
It's not unreasonable to ask how do the Ukrainians
know when and where to hit? That's human and signals intelligence for you. You think it up and the Americans have probably found a way to listen to it.
But do not underestimate the rigidity of the military habit. Arrogance in Russian military circles is a long established fact of life. Routine, simplistic day to day behaviours, constant repetition of daily life when people are not rotated or moved much in their whole careers, are fairly normal in Russia.
Even today a swath of targets from ammunition storage in Luhansk to targets in Russia have all been hit with a relentlessness that must surely start to have Russians asking questions, even just in their own minds.
Start to think how much Russia could have done with a military application of their missiles earlier in the war before Ukrainian air defences became so much more powerful.
Ukraine has managed more with less.
Real military damage has been done to Russia, while a hotel was blasted to pieces in Odesa yesterday. Hotels don't win wars or lose them.
Russia has dished it out - and continues to dish it out almost every day. Terrible civilian deaths are left in their wake. More buildings and roads, power stations and schools need to be rebuilt. Now and again they hit something of military value, but it's an exception not a rule.
Ukraine has now started to find its own long range teeth. They're not attacking civilians. They're hunting down valuable military targets that will aid them win the war. And it's going to get worse for Russia. They can't defend the vast open spaces of Russia from drones and missiles - and the targets are so widespread and disparate it's impossible to know what to defend first. Even by placing an air defence system somewhere you advertise it needs defending and that it matters. Ukraine is much smaller and even then it's hard to cover everything - but they're getting there slowly but surely.
Russian priorities have to be spread thinly or thickly. They have to choose what matters. Defending the rest is just impossible. The only defence is distance. And Partisans will find a way around even that.

[DGuller]

The admiral came back to life, although to which extent, if any, remains to be seen.

[HVC]

Weekend at Boris'?

[Sheilbh]

Saw Ilia Ponomarenko noting that the British and French Defence Ministers and NATO Sec Gen are all in Kyiv today, which suggests some sort of announcement - possibly more Storm Shadows? Although I'd read that both Britain and France are now at the point where they can't provide anymore without cutting into their own supplies - so maybe ramping up manufacturing as they seem to have been useful?

[Josquius]

Basically every news source dead quiet at the moment. Some saying they've been told to keep very quiet. Unusually on the Russian side too.
Massive battle underway. Possibly make or break...