Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Razgovory]

The original usage of the word implied will of a typhoon so that makes sense.

Sorta.  Kami means "spirits" or, loosely, "of the gods."  Kazi means wind or winds.  Kamikaze then means "Divine Winds."  It was used to describe the typhoons that broke up the Mongol invasion fleets in 1274 and 1281.  The Brits have a similar concept in the "Protestant Wind" during the Spanish Armada invasion attempt.

The essence of the WW2 kamikaze tactics were that "Nippon spirit" could overcome material disadvantage, just as it had in the earlier invasions.

Using the term "kamikaze drones" is a misuse of the idea of the kamikaze, but it conveys the correct idea of what te drones do, so I'm okay with it now.

I like "loitering munitions".  It sounds they using bombs that are delinquent or lazy.

[The Brain]

Apparently Shoigu has told every defence minister he's talked in the past few days that they fear Ukraine might use a dirty bomb... which is quite worrying (and no, not because I believe him one bit) 

Even for the Russians that's pretty weak stuff.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The dirty bomb rhetoric obviously raises the worry Russia is saying that to justify their own use of a nuclear weapon.

I know the gravity of the situation but I firmly believe if Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine we (the United States) needs to respond by beginning a conventional (non-nuclear) military campaign targeting all Russian forces in Ukraine. The risks of that escalating into something much worse are real and undeniable, but I do not believe any lesser response makes sense in response to the aggressive of a nuclear weapon on European soil--by a country that has signed a specific treaty with Ukraine promising its protection from such.

[Legbiter]

Seems like the US has just that contingency covered.

The U.S. Army's 101st Airborne Division has been deployed to Europe for the first time in almost 80 years amid soaring tension between Russia and the American-led NATO military alliance. The light infantry unit, nicknamed the "Screaming Eagles," is trained to deploy on any battlefield in the world within hours, ready to fight.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-news-russia-us-army-101st-airborne-nato-war-games-romania/

The 101st is currently about 3 miles from the Ukrainian border. Plus NATO is holding nuclear weapons drills. I think the message to the vatniks is pretty clear what might happen if they escalate to chemical/nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

[Berkut]

The dirty bomb rhetoric obviously raises the worry Russia is saying that to justify their own use of a nuclear weapon.

I know the gravity of the situation but I firmly believe if Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine we (the United States) needs to respond by beginning a conventional (non-nuclear) military campaign targeting all Russian forces in Ukraine. The risks of that escalating into something much worse are real and undeniable, but I do not believe any lesser response makes sense in response to the aggressive of a nuclear weapon on European soil--by a country that has signed a specific treaty with Ukraine promising its protection from such.

I don't disagree, but would note that doing so would mean escalating to hitting target within Russia itself.

At a minimum, we would need to establish air superiority over the battlefield, and that means hitting Russian SAM sites within Russia.

[Zanza]

Substantial reduction of Russian fossil fuel exports. Not compensated by selling a bit more in Asia.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I had mentioned this back when it all started--there is no magic replacement for some of their European exports because pipelines take years to build, and Russia was mostly using Western firms to build the pipelines it did have, so it will have an additional skills gap and etc to fill to build new pipelines to India and China.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

it's not going to stop the Putin-brigade from claiming that the Russians are not feeling the energy boycot though. And that it's only Europe suffering. Not that the european suffering wouldn't have been less if we hadn't followed the green dogmatists over the cliff... but that damage has been done.

I had mentioned this back when it all started--there is no magic replacement for some of their European exports because pipelines take years to build, and Russia was mostly using Western firms to build the pipelines it did have, so it will have an additional skills gap and etc to fill to build new pipelines to India and China.

I think it was Zeihan in one of his more recent bits that said Russia is only one oil-tanker away from getting all it's wells frozen up. Probably a bit hyperbolic, but still. There's only so much you can ship and store at once.

[Jacob]

Would it make sense at some point to bomb / sabotage / otherwise destroy the pipelines Russia has running to Asia?

Obviously it'd be escalatory if done now, but it might make sense at some point. Or would the knock-on effects (I guess market impact and alienating Russian customers) make it a bad move?

[Josquius]

Totally get why ukraine wants to keep things quiet, and impressive they're managing so well. But the lack of updates of anything much happening in Kherson is annoying.

[grumbler]

Would it make sense at some point to bomb / sabotage / otherwise destroy the pipelines Russia has running to Asia?

Obviously it'd be escalatory if done now, but it might make sense at some point. Or would the knock-on effects (I guess market impact and alienating Russian customers) make it a bad move?

I wouldn't think that they are significant enough to warrant pissing off the Asian customers of Russia.

[Zanza]

The main effort now must be to reduce crude exports. That's the main source of Russian income now.



From Feb to Aug:
The largest fossil fuel importer was the EU (EUR 85.1bln), followed by China (EUR34.9bln), Turkey (EUR10.7bln), India (EUR6.6bln), Japan (EUR2.5bln), Egypt (EUR2.3bln, and South Korea (EUR2bln).

[Sheilbh]

The main effort now must be to reduce crude exports. That's the main source of Russian income now.

I'm not sure that's really possible - but I think it's a profound and permanent shift for Europe. Which is also good though I don't think we're anywhere near over the challenges - though prices now are far more manageable (and it is unseasonably warm in Western Europe at least).

[Jacob]

I wouldn't think that they are significant enough to warrant pissing off the Asian customers of Russia.

Yeah you're probably right.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The main effort now must be to reduce crude exports. That's the main source of Russian income now.

I'm not sure that's really possible - but I think it's a profound and permanent shift for Europe. Which is also good though I don't think we're anywhere near over the challenges - though prices now are far more manageable (and it is unseasonably warm in Western Europe at least).

there's probably places where those tankers are going through national waters or other places where they can be held up/stopped without violating international treaties