Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[The Larch]

Seems that all Russian troops in the Kharkiv oblast are retreating to the east of the Oskil River.

[Legbiter]

Yeah.

The map from the pro-Kremlin side looks like this...

[Sheilbh]

Seems that all Russian troops in the Kharkiv oblast are retreating to the east of the Oskil River.

Apparently that is, in about a week, an area about the size of Cyprus.

[Legbiter]

A few more of these offensives and just Crimea will remain in Russian hands, although probably cut off once the Ukrainians HIMAR the Kerch bridge.

[Malthus]

Worth pointing out Russia still has a lot of intrinsic advantages in this war, and there are many things Putin can do before deciding the invasion is a bust and finding a way to egress the situation while maintaining political legitimacy at home. Russia is looking wobbly but it would be foolish to count them out.

The flipside is we also appear to get almost no good press on any potential problems in Ukraine. Ukraine was an incredibly divided society prior to this war, with large factions that were strongly pro-Kremlin. It worries me that Zelenskyy has had to do a few purges of potential Russian 'loyalists' out of his administration, and that's sort of a back door way that Putin could still win this if he's able to destablize the Ukrainian government from within.

From what I understand, the conflict has created a considerable amount of national unity in Ukraine itself.

Before to conflict, that is before 2014 (and even to an extent after it), it was reasonable to believe Ukraine was "really" two nations - a western, Catholic, Ukrainian-speaking one, and an eastern, Orthodox, Russian-speaking one - with a blend running down the middle. "Ukrainian nationalism" only included the first. Also excluded were a bunch of other minorities, notably Jews.

This is the reality that Putin attempted to exploit, first by stirring up a couple of separatist pro-Russian republics, and later with his Ukrainian nationalists = Nazis rhetoric (harping back to Ukrainian actions in WW2).

Thing is, this has changed, and very rapidly. What it means to be a Ukrainian nationalist has changed, and Putin is the direct cause.

Now, it means more 'wants to be European and not part of Putin's Russia'. It no longer matters so much if your mother tongue was Russian, or if you are a Jew (Zelenskyy is both - originally he spoke Russian, and he's Jewish, yet no-one now doubts he's "Ukrainian"). Divided loyalty is reputedly no longer a potent political force inside Ukraine, it has been almost wholly discredited by the invasion, and Russian activities in the breakaway "republics".

[The Brain]

And it can be worth remembering that there is nothing unusual about X speakers not viewing themselves as part of ethnicity X.

[Sheilbh]

And it can be worth remembering that there is nothing unusual about X speakers not viewing themselves as part of ethnicity X.

And that ethnicities don't necessarily map onto national identities.

I've definitely seen liberation videos with people saying thank you in Russian as well as Ukrainian (about the only words I know in either language).

And the post 2014 point is really true. I've mentioned before but when I was in Ukraine on holiday it was really striking everywhere you went there was a board in the middle of the town/city where people had put up either laminated photos of locals who were killed in Euromaidan, or of local casualties in the war. I remember seeing recent ones in plastic wallets. It seemed to me that sort of grass roots local memorialisation was suggestive of something.

[Sheilbh]

Russia responded with missile attacks on power infrastructure in several cities in Ukraine, including Kharkiv and Sumy. Zelensky posted this video on his Telegram:
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1569042641928753152?s=20&t=I6UBcdS4Y7zA_pG5r9T4RA

Christopher Miller
@ChristopherJM
Zelensky just posted this video with brief statement: "Deliberate and cynical missile strikes on civilian, critical infrastructure. No military facilities. Kharkiv and Donetsk regions were cut off. In Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy there are partial problems with power supply."

The statement goes on (via Christo Grozev):

[The Minsky Moment]

Nice DIY liberation.

1 bicycle
100 sandbags
1 flag and pole
1 raised fist
1 big FU to Russia.

[mongers]

Seems that all Russian troops in the Kharkiv oblast are retreating to the east of the Oskil River.

Apparently that is, in about a week, an area about the size of Cyprus.

That sounds optimistic, Cyprus is quite a large island.

[The Minsky Moment]

The next trick would be liberating the Cyprus banking system from the Russian mafia.

[mongers]

The next trick would be liberating the Cyprus banking system from the Russian mafia.

edit:
I've now check on Wiki and apparently it's 9250 sq km, so a couple of weeks tops will see that area liberated, so a few more of those performances/offensives suggests, the situation could be significantly different by mid winter.

[Sheilbh]

edit:
I've now check on Wiki and apparently it's 9250 sq km, so a couple of weeks tops will see that area liberated, so a few more of those performances/offensives suggests, the situation could be significantly different by mid winter.

This could be wrong but what I'd seen was Russia pulling back behind the Oskil river is about 8,500 sq km now being liberated by Ukraine with no resistance:


Ukraine is very big Kharkiv oblast is about the size of Belgium and Ukraine's taken back a big chunk.

[jimmy olsen]

How do you hide the preparations of a major offensive when the enemy has satellites?

Russia doesn't have nearly as many satellites as the US or China does, nor are they of similar quality.

[celedhring]

Know nothing of this dude (seems he's a member of the Russian opposition), but that's a pretty great rant.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLWuU5uXWcM&t