Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

Very busy last night for the Ukrainians. They're methodically clearing up large Russian ammo dumps and command posts with HIMARS. Russians seem caught out and completely unable to quickly counter. Strelkov extra gloomy.

[Barrister]

I read Canada will send back those repaired turbines for Nordstream despite the sanctions. Lame.

Zelenskyy is pissed.

https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1546637939475681281

[Legbiter]

Germany is in trouble if the Russians don't then turn Nordstream 1 back on. No cheap Russian gas for their export industries and home heating come winter.

[The Brain]

They'll muddle through. That's how they lost the war.

[Valmy]

Germany is in trouble if the Russians don't then turn Nordstream 1 back on. No cheap Russian gas for their export industries and home heating come winter.

They found a way to make gunpowder out of the air once they were cut off from bat poop. Let's see that ersatz spirit be innovative.

[Legbiter]

They'll muddle through. That's how they lost the war.

Probably reopen all of their old coal plants, invent a more efficient coal gasification process and shut down every last nuclear power plant on German soil...

[Duque de Bragança]

Germany is in trouble if the Russians don't then turn Nordstream 1 back on. No cheap Russian gas for their export industries and home heating come winter.

They found a way to make gunpowder out of the air once they were cut off from bat poop. Let's see that ersatz spirit be innovative.

I see no Speer to rationalise everything in Germany right now. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[Valmy]

Germany is in trouble if the Russians don't then turn Nordstream 1 back on. No cheap Russian gas for their export industries and home heating come winter.

They found a way to make gunpowder out of the air once they were cut off from bat poop. Let's see that ersatz spirit be innovative.

I see no Speer to rationalise everything in Germany right now. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Well the Imperial government did the Ersatz thing. The Speer types used mass slavery and confiscation which, granted, is a type of creative solution.

[crazy canuck]

Germany is in trouble if the Russians don't then turn Nordstream 1 back on. No cheap Russian gas for their export industries and home heating come winter.

They found a way to make gunpowder out of the air once they were cut off from bat poop. Let's see that ersatz spirit be innovative.

I see no Speer to rationalise everything in Germany right now. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Well the Imperial government did the Ersatz thing. The Speer types used mass slavery and confiscation which, granted, is a type of creative solution.

Yeah, I was going to say, it is a good thing there are no Nazis in power like Speer in Germany - or at least we should hope not.

[Duque de Bragança]

Germany is in trouble if the Russians don't then turn Nordstream 1 back on. No cheap Russian gas for their export industries and home heating come winter.

They found a way to make gunpowder out of the air once they were cut off from bat poop. Let's see that ersatz spirit be innovative.

I see no Speer to rationalise everything in Germany right now. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Well the Imperial government did the Ersatz thing. The Speer types used mass slavery and confiscation which, granted, is a type of creative solution.

Why not combine both? It's not like there was no Ersatz products in WWII.

[Zanza]

Germany is in trouble if the Russians don't then turn Nordstream 1 back on. No cheap Russian gas for their export industries and home heating come winter.

Half of the gas in Nordstream 1 was exported to other EU countries (some of which claimed not to buy Russian gas anymore) and with the liberalized gas market in the EU, this will not just be a German problem...

[Duque de Bragança]

Germany is in trouble if the Russians don't then turn Nordstream 1 back on. No cheap Russian gas for their export industries and home heating come winter.

Half of the gas in Nordstream 1 was exported to other EU countries (some of which claimed not to buy Russian gas anymore) and with the liberalized gas market in the EU, this will not just be a German problem...

"Other" EU countries still have nuclear plants, however.

Not to mention the liberalised gas market stops at the Pyrénées, for those without nuclear power. Iberian countries get all their gas from Algeria and/or Nigeria anyways. Italy is also linked to North African gas, so that should mitigate their very heavy exposure to Russian gas.

Central (including Germany) and Eastern Europe is definitively in trouble, with Finland particularly vulnerable among the Nordic countries.

[HVC]

Exported as a continuation down the line, or resold by German companies?


And while Zelenskyy has done a admirable job, I wonder at what time his chastising will back fire. It's all well and good to help when you aren't really effected, but as the oil crunch worsens, either economically or winter temperatures, when will Europeans get annoyed. Will they?

[Zanza]

Here is an estimate by a thinktank. It's basically all of Central Europe and the Balkans affected.

https://www.bruegel.org/blog-post/european-union-demand-reduction-needs-cope-russian-gas-cuts

Europe will run out of gas by January:


Some countries must reduce demand much more than Germany relatively, but of course Germany has the highest absolute reduction necessary to get over the winter:

[Zanza]

"Other" EU countries still have nuclear plants, however.

Can't find it right now, but I read an article that nuclear power could substitute about 1-1.5% of German gas consumption.

By the way, in the first quarter of 2022, Germany exported more electricity to the EU than the capacity of our three remaining nuclear plants. One reason is that France has like half its nuclear capacity under maintenance.

Not to mention the liberalised gas market stops at the Pyrénées, for those without nuclear power. Iberian countries get all their gas from Algeria and/or Nigeria anyways. Italy is also linked to North African gas, so that should mitigate their very heavy exposure to Russian gas.

Central (including Germany) and Eastern Europe is definitively in trouble, with Finland particularly vulnerable among the Nordic countries.

Yes, pretty much. Western Europe should be fine.