Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Legbiter]

The mines might well be an difficulty for the convoys.

Apparently there are 20 million tonnes of grains sitting in Ukranian silos, they're only able to export about 2million a month and they're expecting upto 75million tonnes to be harvested this year, with the winter wheat having to be brought in starting next month.

Next winter will be very grim.

[Berkut]

Since Russia cannot be allowed to win, lest NATO loses all credibility, this thing will probably go and escalate further.
Better start preparing for boots on the ground at some point.

NATO doesn't lose credibility even if Ukraine totally collapses. Ukraine is notably outside of the NATO alliance.

Russia is a totally shit country as far as global powers go. It was obvious even before this conflict that its claim to global power was entirely in its nuclear arsenal. If we are looking at it in terms of global powers, it has a totally shit middle income economy, heavily focused on resource extraction, and I guess we see how it stacks up in conventional arms. It is a cultural dead end with state sponsored homophobia and a less than free political and speech climate. There won't be a cold war v2.0 in any meaningful sense because Russia's political power today is probably closer to Iran (excluding the nuclear arsenal) than the USSR of old.

True. 

And we need to start treating them exactly as such.

They DO have a nuclear arsenal, but that should be handled the way we handle NK. Carefully, but we don't need to pretend anymore that they are any kind of inheritors of the USSRs global respect and influence.

If they want to act as a pariah state, treat them as such.

I would support an immediate imposition of a no fly/no military zone over whatever portion of the Black Sea is necessary to secure Ukraines ability to ship out grain from Odessa. If that means we send in US minesweepers to clean up, I am down with that.

[alfred russel]

True.

And we need to start treating them exactly as such.

They DO have a nuclear arsenal, but that should be handled the way we handle NK. Carefully, but we don't need to pretend anymore that they are any kind of inheritors of the USSRs global respect and influence.

If they want to act as a pariah state, treat them as such.

I would support an immediate imposition of a no fly/no military zone over whatever portion of the Black Sea is necessary to secure Ukraines ability to ship out grain from Odessa. If that means we send in US minesweepers to clean up, I am down with that.

Well no we should not treat them like North Korea because North Korea has possibly a handful of nukes with very questionable delivery mechanisms while Russia has thousands with the ability to destroy civilization as we know it.

[Berkut]

True.

And we need to start treating them exactly as such.

They DO have a nuclear arsenal, but that should be handled the way we handle NK. Carefully, but we don't need to pretend anymore that they are any kind of inheritors of the USSRs global respect and influence.

If they want to act as a pariah state, treat them as such.

I would support an immediate imposition of a no fly/no military zone over whatever portion of the Black Sea is necessary to secure Ukraines ability to ship out grain from Odessa. If that means we send in US minesweepers to clean up, I am down with that.

Well no we should not treat them like North Korea because North Korea has possibly a handful of nukes with very questionable delivery mechanisms while Russia has thousands with the ability to destroy civilization as we know it.

Thats not what....

Never mind.

[The Minsky Moment]

I'm not sure armed escorts would do much good considering the mines. Wouldn't you pretty much have to attack Ukraine with naval ships to move them? And then there's nothing stopping the Russians launching an amphibious landing bar their incompetence

That's a significant qualifier at the end.  The Russian army has not shown great facility running complex military operations and operations don't get much more trick than a contested amphibious invasion. 

[Legbiter]

On current trends the Russians will grind out a land corridor to Crimea by inching forward in the Donbas. They're using overwhelming artillery might to pulverize the Ukrainians who're losing hundreds of men per day in the East. They're even using very expensive Tochka missiles to blow up 10-man Ukrainian reconnaissance squads. I'm worried the Ukrainians won't have enough firepower to cover the entire front.

[The Minsky Moment]

NATO doesn't lose credibility even if Ukraine totally collapses. Ukraine is notably outside of the NATO alliance.

We are past that now; NATO has made a public commitment to support Ukraine's ability to fight so its credibility is in play.

But beyond issues of credibility, the reality is for all of Russia's many problems, it does remain a military threat to Europe - the most significant one by far.  It is very much in NATO's interest to halt Russian irredentism at stage 1, and to use its resources to fund the destruction of Russia's ability to make war.

[The Minsky Moment]

On current trends the Russians will grind out a land corridor to Crimea by inching forward in the Donbas. They're using overwhelming artillery might to pulverize the Ukrainians who're losing hundreds of men per day in the East. They're even using very expensive Tochka missiles to blow up 10-man Ukrainian reconnaissance squads. I'm worried the Ukrainians won't have enough firepower to cover the entire front.

We are still only a few months in.  A long way to go and Ukraine has better options over the rest of 2022 for augmenting its firepower than Russia has of replacing its lost and degrading front line equipment.

[Tamas]

If Russia ends up winning they will absolutely 100% sell that as a victory over NATO.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

If Russia ends up winning they will absolutely 100% sell that as a victory over NATO.

indeed, and they'll take steps that take them into the Baltic, Poland and Balkans afterwards.

[Barrister]

I would support an immediate imposition of a no fly/no military zone over whatever portion of the Black Sea is necessary to secure Ukraines ability to ship out grain from Odessa. If that means we send in US minesweepers to clean up, I am down with that.

As I understand the problem, it is that Odessa has been mined by the Ukrainians fearing a Russian amphibious landing.

[grumbler]

As I understand the problem, it is that Odessa has been mined by the Ukrainians fearing a Russian amphibious landing.

When you lay minefields, you leave mine-free channels in them known only to you.

[celedhring]

Don't mines eventually drift from their original position?

[Zanza]

When talking about the concrete scenario of grain export in Odessa: Could the Russians track a grain freighter using such a mine-free channel from the Black Sea into the harbor? That would give away the Ukrainian secret and make a landing more likely again, no?

[Iormlund]

When talking about the concrete scenario of grain export in Odessa: Could the Russians track a grain freighter using such a mine-free channel from the Black Sea into the harbor? That would give away the Ukrainian secret and make a landing more likely again, no?

The main anti-air and anti-missile cover of the Black Fleet is no more, and with it any chance of mounting an amphibious operation.

After the Moskva went down, the Russians tried to use Serpent Island as a replacement. Seeing the kind of hell Bayraktars and a couple Su-25s rained upon them, I doubt that the even the Russians are stupid enough to try a serious operation against Odessa.

Their Kilos can still blockade the port, but I'd be really surprised if the can get troop transports to the coast without being blown to bits.

Also, as far as I know, Russian Marine units were diverted to Mariupol and are still fully engaged.