Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Syt]

When you bold nothing, you bold nothing.

I bolded some things.

[Berkut]

Well, there is nothing for it then for everyone who wants to respond to this to go and study each of those historical precedents in depth to figure out their reasonable relevance to the current situation, weigh them carefully against all other current and former nation states, religious organizations, or other interested parties, and then come to a balanced and rational judgement on the validity of his claims in careful contrast to any other claims those other entities might have as well.

[Syt]

I skimmed it, and it mostly feels like something someone would post on Paradox forums, complaining about why the game is COMPLETELY WRONG AND INSULTING TO GLORIOUS HISTORY OF [insert Slavic nation here]

I think the key takeaway is that Putin thinks Ukraine, or part of it, has incredibly strong historic connections to Russia, and really: shouldn't we be friends (or more)?

[Berkut]

I think everyone knows that Ukraine has lots of ties to Russia. That is not exactly news.

The questions is whether or not those ties validate the demand that Ukraine be a vassal to Russia.

[Jacob]

I do wonder how they're able to push this fear of NATO excuse so far. It seems a fairly easy one to get around "No we don't have any immediate plans of joining NATO"- a Ukrainian PM could easily say this and it means nothing for his successor. Hell. Given Russia has gone back on its promise to respect Ukrainian integrity it doesn't even need to mean much to him.

I'm seeing it reported that Zelensky just said that Ukraine is not willing to back off on its plans to join NATO.

[Duque de Bragança]

I wonder how feasible would be sanctions that target Putin's inner circle where it hurts, seizing all those London penthouses, Mediterranean villas, yatchs and other luxury baubles they've accumulated over the years with their ill gotten gains. 

Fuck, let's take it to 11, ban Russian companies from operating in the EU, at least state owned ones. Kick Gazprom in the nuts.

Targeting sanctions at Russian oligarchs can be difficult when they also hold citizenships of Western countries. You probably cannot sanction your own citizens too effectively.

Separating selective Sephardis (Abramovich) from the others should not be too complicated in the Portuguese case. 

Besides, Lisbon city already targeted illegaly some Russian refugees or even dual citizens so legally should be easier.

[Duque de Bragança]

Well, Kiev is a skip and a jump (about 100 miles) from the Belarus border (you have to go via Chernobyl, but would Russia even care at that point?). Leopolis/Lviv/Lvov/Lwow/Lemberg would be at least twice as far.

Fixed! 

[Sheilbh]

US closing its embassy in Kyiv (already down to essential staff only) and relocated to Lviv.

No idea how accurate this is (because it's reports of intelligence) or how accurate the intelligence is but I believe the reports are that US/UK intelligence expects a provocation on Tuesday and invasion on Wednesday - which is quite a precise assessment. Obviously that report has all the caveats possible.

[Syt]

US closing its embassy in Kyiv (already down to essential staff only) and relocated to Lviv.

No idea how accurate this is (because it's reports of intelligence) or how accurate the intelligence is but I believe the reports are that US/UK intelligence expects a provocation on Tuesday and invasion on Wednesday - which is quite a precise assessment. Obviously that report has all the caveats possible.

Apparently the Ukrainian president shared similar info online.

[Sheilbh]

Apparently the Ukrainian president shared similar info online.

Yeah - just saw that he's said they've been informed that February 16th will be the day of the attack and announced that it will be a public holiday (also calling for everyone to raise the flag on that day and come out and sing the national anthem at 10am as a day of national unity).

I think it is on balance good to call this out in advance to make it absolutely clear what's happening.

[Tamas]

CBS claims a US official told them they can see on satellite images Russian artillery crews leaving assembly areas toward attack position.

[DGuller]

Can't Russia just postpone the attack for a week, now that the hourly schedule has been revealed, call everyone a liar crying wolf, and then strike a week later?

[Tamas]

Can't Russia just postpone the attack for a week, now that the hourly schedule has been revealed, call everyone a liar crying wolf, and then strike a week later?

Aren't they hemmed in by the approaching spring thaw, schedule-wise?

[Syt]

[DGuller]

  Far from his best work, either as a comedian or as a president.