Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

Its the old question though isn't it. If you were a citizen of France during the Nazi occupation what would you do?
From the safety of our armchairs its easy enough for us to say oh hell yeah, la resistance all the way.
But in practice...well. We saw what happened in practice. Most people just want to keep their heads down and hope their families get through the whole thing intact.
From much of what I've read its similar in Russia. Interviews with Russians on the street more often than not seem to follow a pattern of glancing around nervously before saying they're not involved or just giving a government official headline.
Huge kudos to those who do stand up against the government.
And similarly a pox on the genuine fully signed up flag waving nationalist shitbags.
But I do get the impression that the vast majority of the population are in the standard head down and hope it blows over mode.

Sure, I can't really blame people for putting their head down (I mean, at this stage it feels like I can, but since I may be similarly cowardly in the same situation, I feel like I shouldn't). But then it is also wrong for us the rest of the world to behave like it is business as usual, and all these people putting their heads down are not -by their inaction- are supporting an outrageous war of aggression.

Inaction is a choice, that choice has consequences on us, we should make sure it is reciprocated and more importantly that their choice (inaction) which is severely disadvantageous for us (not to mention the Ukrainians), is made less advantageous for them, thereby pushing them toward selecting a course of action that is better for us.

[alfred russel]

It's not an indefensible position.  Is this a war initiated by the will of the Russian people or has it been imposed on them?

It is being waged with their active enthusiasm.  See:  widespread contemporary support for the idea that "the only good indian is a dead indian."

Wait, I thought the idea was to punish the russian people for the invasion of Ukraine, rather than retrograde attitudes toward India.

[Sheilbh]

I'm the first person appalled by the general apathy/passive callousness of the Russian public while their nation behaves so criminally, but a blanket visa ban seems a bit of a blunt instrument.

Agreed. I'm not sure which other countries if any have had a total tourist visa ban (imposed by third countries). I support cultural sanctions like against apartheid South Africa - I'm a lot less comfortable with this.

I think it is counterproductive and illiberal and while we can say it won't affect dissidents - what other visa will they travel under?

I also think it won't hurt the core of the regime at all from what I've read: Russia issues about 200,000 diplomatic passports but, at most, has about 15,000 people in roles that should be eligible.

[The Brain]

Russia can get back to normal relations whenever it wants. Just withdraw from Ukraine, return people and property, pay war reparations, surrender war criminals for trial, and provide credible guarantees that they won't be naughty again. As long as it doesn't it should be isolated.

[Duque de Bragança]

Also Scholz seems to be promoting a big gas pipeline project from the Iberian peninsula towards Northern Europe. He seems to have engaged already with France, Spain and Portugal about it

It will take years, however.

Part of the infrastructure is already built, as there was a previous project that got cancelled during construction. Apparently the Spain - France connection could be operative next year already.

Part of it is indeed already partly built in Catalonia, not at all in France, but operative next year is way too optimistic.
Besides, at best, it would be still too late for this critical winter.

Some Catalan leader even mentioned "this decade"

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/catalan-leader-confident-gas-pipeline-with-france-will-be-built-this-decade/

3 or 4 years is the figure reported in French media

La mise en œuvre du MidCat se heurte toutefois à plusieurs obstacles, à commencer par son coût – évalué en 2018 à 440 millions d'euros – et la durée des travaux, estimée à trois ou quatre ans.

"Le MidCat ne peut pas être abordé comme une solution à court terme", a ainsi rappelé mi-mars l'ambassadeur de France en Espagne, Jean-Michel Casa, dans le quotidien barcelonais La Vanguardia.

https://www.la-croix.com/Ressusciter-projet-gazoduc-MidCat-pari-ambitieux-complique-2022-05-10-1301214371

[Zoupa]

If we're serious about caring for Ukraine's civilians and if we're serious about wanting potential regime fall in muscovy, then the visa ban is the way to go.

We've tried being nice for over 30 years. Why is Estonia doing so well but russia keeps invading neighbours? Most russians don't give a flying fuck about democracy, the rule of law or human rights. They seem to care only about how the supermarket is stocked, their purchasing power and taking their vacation in Portugal or France. I thought we were degenerates? I thought we were Gayropa?

The only thing that matters to putin is Moscow and St-Petersburg and keeping the illusion of normality. Increase sanctions. Visa ban. Then the vatniks will suddenly grumble and become anti-war. Because so far they either don't give a shit or are actively supporting it.

[Zoupa]

And the thought "oh but that's not liberal or in line with our values". Can we give that shit a rest please. The russians are shelling cities indiscriminately.

The Allies were definitely the good guys, but we razed Dresden and Hiroshima. Sometimes you gotta use the stick. A visa ban is not even close to a stick. Notice how the russian media and gvt are freaking out a lot more about a visa ban than all the western military aid? It's because they don't give a shit about their soldiers, but they give a shit about staying in power. A visa ban increases the likelihood of protests inside muscovy.

[DGuller]

Ostracism is the only effective check on a terrorist nuclear power.  If we're not willing to push back with what's available, then sooner or later the world will be dominated by the most brazen country with nuclear weapons.

[Syt]

The Austrian Chamber of Commerce on higher gas prices/potential lack of supplies: "Well, people will have to learn to live within their means, and - if necessary - rather dress warmer and heat less in winter. The MARKET(TM) will take care of it."

The Austrian Chamber of Commerce on the potential visa ban for Russians: "But ... tourism! This is unacceptable! The government has to do SOMETHING!!!"

In a related note, saw on Reddit a video of a Russian woman - the first part is a TikTok of her in what looks like Salzburg, shouting Russian nationalist slogans and insults at Ukrainians. The second part is a video of her crying over her hotel in Vienna canceling her reservation, after someone there apparently saw the other clip. "Oops."

[Zanza]

Visa ban seems to be a low cost, effective sanction. We should have done this already.

[Admiral Yi]

I like the idea of just kicking out the ones who mouth off.

[jimmy olsen]

Visa ban hits at the middle and upper class of Moscow and St. Petersburg who have way more political sway than the rest of the country. It's a good idea.

[Josephus]

I'm the first person appalled by the general apathy/passive callousness of the Russian public while their nation behaves so criminally, but a blanket visa ban seems a bit of a blunt instrument.

It's not so cut and dry though. I'm sure many Russians don't see this as their country behaving criminally, but probably tow the party line about this being a liberating crusade and the world is against them for no good reason at all.

That said, and I've been pretty consistent about this: if you're gonna go the sanctions route then don't go halfway. Sanction everything except possibly live-saving matters. Ban tourist visas. And yes, ban the purchase of Russian gas.

[Josquius]

Is there not already an unofficial Russian visa ban in place?
A Russian colleague, based in the EU, has accepted that he just isn't going to be going on any business trips to the UK until he can get another passport.

[Iormlund]

Re: gas infrastructure.

I spoke recently with my ex, who works for a major player on that sector. She's completely burned out. Way too many projects and not enough trained staff. They have been working in crunch mode for over a year.
None of the hires of the past 5 years is still there. They all left when they saw what it was like. They are bringing in engineers from the offices in Argentina and the like to cope, with the lure of a fast-tracked Spanish/EU passport (Latin-american citizens can apply for dual/Spanish citizenship after living here for 2 years).

If this is similar in the other couple companies that do that sort of stuff I can't see how infrastructure can be realistically scaled up anytime soon.