Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

I'm just wondering what the hell the Russians think they will accomplish at this point. I'd love to be a fly on the wall at the daily briefings Putin is getting. Barring an unlikely Ukrainian collapse just how do the Russians see this war ending? 

[celedhring]

I'm just wondering what the hell the Russians think they will accomplish at this point. I'd love to be a fly on the wall at the daily briefings Putin is getting. Barring an unlikely Ukrainian collapse just how do the Russians see this war ending? 

I think they are still aiming to freeze the thing and annex the currently occuppied territories as a fait-accompli like Crimea. Then give it another go in a few years.

[Jacob]

I'm just wondering what the hell the Russians think they will accomplish at this point. I'd love to be a fly on the wall at the daily briefings Putin is getting. Barring an unlikely Ukrainian collapse just how do the Russians see this war ending? 

My guess is their plan is to hang on as long as possible and wait for some major change to undermine the Western coalition and its support for Ukraine. They're hoping to hang on to some part of Ukranian territories and/ or have something they can use as a propaganda victory (i.e. the West backing down and looking weak or Ukraine looking feeble).

Potential events that Russia may hope for:

- Impact of lack of gas in Europe during the Winter leading to hardship, then force some sort of settlement with Ukraine.
- Economic impact in Europe from sanctions leading to dissatisfaction and change in leadership.
- Electoral victories in major Western countries of Putin allies or useful idiots, leading to cracks in Western Unity (off the top of my head this may be possible in Italy and the US, it was a risk in France with Le Pen).
- Some other major crisis (say, China vs US over Taiwan) resulting in focus (and attendant support) drifting from Ukraine.

That's my guess anyhow. Hang on and wait for something to break somewhere in the West, basically. Then end the war in a position with some gains and in a position to apply social corrosion techniques on Ukraine and to restart the war at Russian convenience.

[Josquius]

Yes, I think Russia are hanging on for general winter breaking western support via gas shortages so they can roll over a unsupported Ukraine next year.
If Europe holds over winter, which I'm hopeful we will, then come Spring Russia will be in a very interesting and desperate situation.

[Legbiter]

Lots of things exploding in Crimea, the Russian occupied south as well as in Russia proper tonight. Ukrainians on a roll.

[Josquius]

Lots of things exploding in Crimea, the Russian occupied south as well as in Russia proper tonight. Ukrainians on a roll.

Either that, or if the Russians are right then thank you Philip Morris.

[Admiral Yi]

Either that, or if the Russians are right then thank you Philip Morris.

Is this some rhyming sland nonsense?

[Tamas]

Allegedly Russians have removed Rosatom personnel from the Zaporizssja nucleal plant and only left a skeleton Ukrainian staff as well.

Speculations seem at fever pitch from both sides about the other orchestrating an incident at the plant today.

[jimmy olsen]

Either that, or if the Russians are right then thank you Philip Morris.

Is this some rhyming sland nonsense?

Accidents from smoking

[Josephus]

There will be a peace deal which will see Russia hanging on to some of the Donbass. It's the most likely outcome.

[Jacob]

There will be a peace deal which will see Russia hanging on to some of the Donbass. It's the most likely outcome.

Why do you think Ukraine will cave? Do you reckon Western sponsors will pressure them into giving concessions to Putin?

[Tamas]

I am having a hard time imagining an official settlement that changes Ukraine's borders.

That would have enormous implications and consequences for Europe and thus the world. Especially if the major countries would recognise those border changes.

That would make war to force changes to borders a valid, "legal" option to pursue, again. Bosnia, Kosovo, Moldavia, hell, Hungary and all its neighbours if some proper Nazi inherits from Orban, all would become fair game.

[The Brain]

I am having a hard time imagining an official settlement that changes Ukraine's borders.

That would have enormous implications and consequences for Europe and thus the world. Especially if the major countries would recognise those border changes.

That would make war to force changes to borders a valid, "legal" option to pursue, again. Bosnia, Kosovo, Moldavia, hell, Hungary and all its neighbours if some proper Nazi inherits from Orban, all would become fair game.

My impression is that there are a number of politicians in the West who are ready to grasp at fig leaves to make a de facto border adjustment possible while maintaining some convenient fiction. The West was very accepting of 2014. I certainly hope that the West sticks with Ukraine until final victory, but...

[Valmy]

There will be a peace deal which will see Russia hanging on to some of the Donbass. It's the most likely outcome.

What logically should happen, and what is going to happen, seem to be very different things in this situation. Also never underestimate the radicalizing effects of a war dragging on and on. As more Ukrainians and Russians sacrifice their lives the harder a compromise solution becomes, at least for awhile before sheer exhaustion sets in.

[Josquius]

I am having a hard time imagining an official settlement that changes Ukraine's borders.

That would have enormous implications and consequences for Europe and thus the world. Especially if the major countries would recognise those border changes.

That would make war to force changes to borders a valid, "legal" option to pursue, again. Bosnia, Kosovo, Moldavia, hell, Hungary and all its neighbours if some proper Nazi inherits from Orban, all would become fair game.

If its all confirmed via proper democratically valid referenda with international observers I could see it.
But getting to that seems almost impossible. You just know Russia will complain about Ukraine trying to fix things whilst obviously Ukraine will want those chased away to be allowed a vote.