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Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-15 + 2022 Invasion

Started by mongers, August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM

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DGuller

Quote from: Tamas on August 11, 2014, 10:15:56 AM
One thing I have been thinking about: surely the main reason behind lacklustre western sanctions is the economic interests of the politicians involved. But also... do they (and we) REALLY want an economic collapse in Russia?

As sweet as it would be to punish Putin and his supporters for destabilising the world, it would mean a volatile and unpredictable political situation in an already pretty radicalised power with thousands of nuclear warheads.
I think it's also a concern about retaliatory sanctions.  I just saw a news report yesterday on TV about how American economy is reeling from the newly imposed embargo on American food products.

MadImmortalMan

Most of Europe can't afford to have the gas shut off though. Surely that's the real problem.
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

Malthus

Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2014, 10:29:41 AM
Most of Europe can't afford to have the gas shut off though. Surely that's the real problem.

Things will get real interesting politically in Europe when the Leviathan Gas Field goes online in a couple of years ... it is owned, by of all countries, Israel.  :lol:

Allegedly, there is enough gas there to supply Europe for 20 years - and that's just proven reserves.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_gas_field
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane—Marcus Aurelius

Duque de Bragança

#63
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2014, 10:29:41 AM
Most of central, eastern and southeastern Europe can't afford to have the gas shut off though. Surely that's the real problem.

Fixed!
Other countries rely on other sources like nuclear power (France or in a smaller degree Sweden) or different gas/oil providers and/or energy mix such as the Iberian Peninsula, too far away to depend on Russian gas. Germany is definitively MittelEuropa in this one, out of his own stupidity.

Valmy

Finally the evil jews can really start controlling Europe.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

celedhring

Quote from: Duque de Bragança on August 11, 2014, 10:38:07 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2014, 10:29:41 AM
Most of central eastern and southeastern Europe can't afford to have the gas shut off though. Surely that's the real problem.

Fixed!
Other countries rely on other sources like nuclear power (France or in a smaller degree Sweden) or different gas/oil providers and/or energy mix such as the Iberian Peninsula, too far away to depend on Russian gas.

Russia is one of Spain's fastest growing export markets. And there's all the industry built around rich Russians coming on vacation, in a lot of high-endish stores stuff is labelled in euros, dollars and rubles.

Duque de Bragança

#66
Quote from: Valmy on August 11, 2014, 10:38:30 AM
Finally the evil Russian/Ashkenazi Jews can really start controlling Europe.

So Putin and Lieberman will control all gas to Europe?  :hmm:
Not sure if the Leviathan gas field claims are settled with the border in Lebanon still in dispute and the possible extent of a Gaza strip exclusive economic zone.
Last time I heard of it, Israel more or less shared it with Cyprus and Greece to export it to Europe. Could this possibly help fuel the animosity with Erdogan?

Duque de Bragança

Quote from: celedhring on August 11, 2014, 10:43:14 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on August 11, 2014, 10:38:07 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2014, 10:29:41 AM
Most of central eastern and southeastern Europe can't afford to have the gas shut off though. Surely that's the real problem.

Fixed!
Other countries rely on other sources like nuclear power (France or in a smaller degree Sweden) or different gas/oil providers and/or energy mix such as the Iberian Peninsula, too far away to depend on Russian gas.



Russia is one of Spain's fastest growing export markets. And there's all the industry built around rich Russians coming on vacation, in a lot of high-endish stores stuff is labelled in euros, dollars and rubles.

Does that include gas? If so, Spain is even dumber than I thought.
Portugal relies more on Venezuela, Nigeria and Algeria. Granted, not so nice places but unlikely to use gas as a weapon à la Putin.

celedhring

No, I was saying that despite not depending on them for gas, we have strong economic ties with Russia.

We mostly use gas from Algeria, Nigeria and Qatar IIRC.

Duque de Bragança

Quote from: celedhring on August 11, 2014, 10:49:43 AM
No, I was saying that despite not depending on them for gas, we have strong economic ties with Russia.

QED
That's not the point MIM was making, I disagreed with his claim while saying nothing about other economic ties.

celedhring

And I say that at least one of these countries you removed from MIM's list has reasons to oppose strong economic sanctions against Russia, which is the original point that Tamas/DGuller were discussing.

Malthus

Quote from: Duque de Bragança on August 11, 2014, 10:45:28 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 11, 2014, 10:38:30 AM
Finally the evil Russian/Ashkenazi Jews can really start controlling Europe.

So Putin and Lieberman will control all gas to Europe?  :hmm:
Not sure if the Leviathan gas field claims are settled with the border in Lebanon still in dispute and the possible extent of a Gaza strip exclusive economic zone.
Last time I heard of it, Israel more or less shared it with Cyprus and Greece to export it to Europe. Could this possibly help fuel the animosity with Erdogan?

Allegedly, the dispute with Lebanon is settled - at least, over these fields.

QuoteIn August 2010, Lebanon submitted to the United Nations its official view regarding the maritime border, indicating that it considered the Tamar and Leviathan gas fields to be outside Lebanese territory (though it indicated other prospective fields in the region may be within Lebanese territory). The US expressed support for the Lebanon proposal.

Dunno if any possible Gaza zone would impact them. In any event, the current lunatics in charge of that particular asylum are unlikely to be able to assert any claims.

Much more serious is tensions between Israel and Greek Cyprus on the one hand, and Turkey on the other. Naturally, the Turks would like a slice of the action, based on their invasion claims to Turkish Cyprus ... and they aren't on the best of terms with Israel at the moment puting it mildly.
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane—Marcus Aurelius

Duque de Bragança

Quote from: Malthus on August 11, 2014, 11:33:00 AM

Dunno if any possible Gaza zone would impact them. In any event, the current lunatics in charge of that particular asylum are unlikely to be able to assert any claims.

The PA could very well do that, even as a mere token chip during negotiations, be it with Israel or even with Hamas (persona non grata internationally).

Quote
Much more serious is tensions between Israel and Greek Cyprus on the one hand, and Turkey on the other. Naturally, the Turks would like a slice of the action, based on their invasion claims to Turkish Cyprus ... and they aren't on the best of terms with Israel at the moment puting it mildly.

That's what I was referring to. De Jure, Turkish Cyprus claims mean nothing though and with Cyprus already and Greece in the EU, there's a possible veto at every turn.

OttoVonBismarck

Quote from: KRonn on August 11, 2014, 10:09:35 AMMy feeling is that Putin is nastily stuck between two vises of his own making. He's pretty badly stuck now. He can't afford to lose in Ukraine as it would be a huge loss of face, unless a face saving measure could be created but he's passed that up before. There's also his quest for territory for rebuilding Russia, which is his main motivation. So if the Ukrainian military continues to defeat the Russian operatives locals then he'll want to move in under the original guise of safeguarding the local Russian population and that line of propaganda.

However, the other side of the vise he's caught between is the idea that Ukraine isn't going to go quietly as Crimea did. Russian forces will be heavily engaged in fighting Ukrainian forces which will be a mess for him, even if he wins, which is most likely.  But he may push the West into creating real sanctions, such as the US finally deciding to more strongly develop natural gas with the idea of becoming the supplier for Europe in place of Russia. Russia can't afford that. Or there may be other energy measures which the West or US may put in place for the shorter term, since developing natural gas supplies to supply Europe would take at least a couple or few years to get going. But the long term energy strategy could be a problem for Putin if he overplays his hand.

This is what I think + I think something to consider is Putin may not actually "want" the Eastern Ukrainian regions with higher Russian populations. I think he misjudged early on that they would massively support breaking away from Kiev, maybe just slightly less so than Crimea did. So not only does Putin not want to "lose" to Ukraine as it will cost him what he believes is something extremely important (his credibility as a strong man) but I think he also doesn't want to actually go in both for the costs involved in going in direct but also the high cost of winning. Crimea is a net negative economically for Russia. If Eastern Ukraine isn't all the hot to be part of Russia (and it's suggested by the mild recruitment rate for the rebels having to be supplemented by Russian operatives that it isn't that hot to be part of Russia) then keeping it will be kinda unpleasant. Plus, while Eastern Ukraine is better off than Crimea, it's still likely to be an economic net negative.

Crimea you can at least argue there is a larger strategic concern (the Russian naval base), but it's even harder from a strict realpolitik perspective to justify taking Eastern Ukraine ravaged by insurgency and likely to need years of subsidy from Moscow (if not permanent subsidy.)

To me I think a "win" for Putin is Eastern Ukraine becoming like Transnistria or South Ossetia, but it's looking like he may not have a lot of options for that. Especially because now that he's set the precedent of accepting Crimea with open arms, let's say Putin goes in heavy and fully props up the Donetsk People's Republic. How does it look if the DPR wants in Russia, can Putin actually push to keep them in a shaky state like Transnistria/South Ossetia, with all the rhetoric he's made about greater Russia and all that I think that's a harder thing to do politically than it was before he set the precedent involved with accepting Crimea with open arms.

Baron von Schtinkenbutt

Quote from: Malthus on August 11, 2014, 10:33:34 AM
Things will get real interesting politically in Europe when the Leviathan Gas Field goes online in a couple of years ... it is owned, by of all countries, Israel.  :lol:

Allegedly, there is enough gas there to supply Europe for 20 years - and that's just proven reserves.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_gas_field

In 21st Century, Jews gas Europe!