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Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-15 + 2022 Invasion

Started by mongers, August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM

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Eddie Teach

To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Syt

Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 11:36:44 PM
Quote from: Syt on August 06, 2014, 11:17:40 PM
Not sure what could be gained from invading. If they keep supporting "separatists" and keep the East in chaos, they can keep the Ukrainian unstable until someone comes into power who is to their liking. Meanwhile they can spew all kinds of rhetoric about the evil West, and the Fascists in Kiev.
It's not about gaining, it's about avoiding a loss.  The Russian media has zombified the Russian populace into believing that the "separatists" are brave freedom fighters defending themselves against fascist junta.  Letting them get slaughtered wouldn't go down well.  I guess you can zombify them again to convince them that it's no big deal, but nationalist propaganda is dangerous because it tends to work like a ratchet.  You can fire up the sheep a lot easier than you can douse them.

Well, I can tell you one thing, there'll be little more than stern words and maybe new sanctions from the EU in such a case.
If we want to prevent catastrophic economic and societal change we will have to radically change our climate system.

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

Razgovory

Quote from: Syt on August 06, 2014, 11:17:40 PM
Not sure what could be gained from invading. If they keep supporting "separatists" and keep the East in chaos, they can keep the Ukrainian unstable until someone comes into power who is to their liking. Meanwhile they can spew all kinds of rhetoric about the evil West, and the Fascists in Kiev.

I can't help but see a flaw in this as a long term strategy.  Russia isn't the USSR, it sorta needs that trade with the evil West.  Russia is no liberal democracy but they aren't a police state either.  If food prices increase to much and lots of people lose their jobs,  Putin could face an uprising or a coup.  I would like to state that this isn't a desirable for us either.  Instability in Russia could lead to honest to God civil war or someone much worse then Putin.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

DGuller

Quote from: Razgovory on August 07, 2014, 12:24:45 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 06, 2014, 11:17:40 PM
Not sure what could be gained from invading. If they keep supporting "separatists" and keep the East in chaos, they can keep the Ukrainian unstable until someone comes into power who is to their liking. Meanwhile they can spew all kinds of rhetoric about the evil West, and the Fascists in Kiev.

I can't help but see a flaw in this as a long term strategy.  Russia isn't the USSR, it sorta needs that trade with the evil West.  Russia is no liberal democracy but they aren't a police state either.  If food prices increase to much and lots of people lose their jobs,  Putin could face an uprising or a coup.  I would like to state that this isn't a desirable for us either.  Instability in Russia could lead to honest to God civil war or someone much worse then Putin.
I don't think this is a good strategy at all for Russia either.  But dictators that have been in power for a while tend to lose touch with reality.  Putin doesn't seem like someone pre-occupied with economy in any case, he seems like the type to dismiss economic trouble as temporary war pains.

Tamas

Yeah you guys shouldn't view this as what makes sense for Russia. Things are being decided on the basis of what makes sense for Putin staying in power. Pushing a huge-ass country like Ukraine into chaos for that purpose seems to be acceptable, clearly, so lets hope that WW3 is not on the list of acceptable outcomes for that end.

Syt

What I find distressing are all the relativists in the West who are basically saying Putin is not nearly as bad as the U.S. when it comes to warmongering and surveillance state, so we should just leave him be.
If we want to prevent catastrophic economic and societal change we will have to radically change our climate system.

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

Tamas

Quote from: Syt on August 07, 2014, 04:06:52 AM
What I find distressing are all the relativists in the West who are basically saying Putin is not nearly as bad as the U.S. when it comes to warmongering and surveillance state, so we should just leave him be.

yeah its maddening but IIRC there were voices like that about the Soviet Union as well for quite a while.


Syt

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/743897

QuoteRussia is working on measures to close its airspace to Asia, Pacific-bound flights

Russian has banned Ukrainian air companies to make transit flights to a number of countries via Russia

MOSCOW, August 07. /ITAR-TASS/. Russia is working on measures to close its airspace to Western companies' flights to and from the Asia-Pacific region and also to change the points of entry and exit for charter flights, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at a meeting of the Cabinet on Thursday.

"The current situation as it is, the Russian government is considering a number of retaliatory steps. I will mention some of them, but that does not mean that they will be introduced at once. The measures include a ban on transit flights by European and US air carriers to Southeast Asia, to the Asia-Pacific Region," Medvedev said.

"We are considering measures that would be an answer to the European Union's sanctions against the Russian air company Dobrolyot, which flied to Simferopol," he said.

Russian has banned Ukrainian air companies to make transit flights to a number of countries via Russia, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday.

He said the decision had already been taken.

Russia is working out measures to revise the rules of using Trans-Siberian routes, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said.

"Our country is ready to revise the rules of using Trans-Siberian routes, that is, denounce the agreed principles of upgrading the existing system of Trans-Siberian routes," he said at a government session.

The Russian Association of Air Transport Operators on Monday asked the government to take urgent measures to support the Dobrolet low-cost air carrier that has had to stop operation due to Western sanctions.

Russia's Dobrolyot, a low-cost airline, is 100-percent subsidiary of Russia's biggest air carrier Aeroflot. Its fleet includes two Boeings 737-800 NG and one Sukhoi Superjet-100. By the end of 2014, the company planned to add six more Boeings to its fleet. Both of its Boeings are leased from BBAM Aircraft Leasing and Management.

The Russian government is ready to introduce protective measures in the aircraft building, shipbuilding and automobile manufacturing industries, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at a Cabinet meeting on Thursday.

"We are potentially ready to introduce protective measures in aircraft building, shipbuilding, automobile manufacturing industries and in other sectors, but we will do this sensibly," he said.
The prime minister also said the government realised the importance of co-operation in this sphere and looked realistically on the country's capabilities.

Not the first time they threatened this. Last year or the year before they were threatening the same if Western airlines didn't disclose full passenger data (including credit card data etc.) for all transit flights (which EU law prohibits).
If we want to prevent catastrophic economic and societal change we will have to radically change our climate system.

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

Tamas

I don't think the west should blink on these. If Russia goes full-blown isolation and economic de-coupling from the EU, it will hurt the EU on the short term, for sure, but it will destroy Russia.

Syt

Quote from: Tamas on August 07, 2014, 04:16:38 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 07, 2014, 04:06:52 AM
What I find distressing are all the relativists in the West who are basically saying Putin is not nearly as bad as the U.S. when it comes to warmongering and surveillance state, so we should just leave him be.

yeah its maddening but IIRC there were voices like that about the Soviet Union as well for quite a while.

Yeah, but there's a vocal minority at least who thinks that while Russia is an increasingly oppressive regime the West is governed by economic interest only, without compassion, or regard for the will of the people, and that it doesn't matter which political party is in charge.
If we want to prevent catastrophic economic and societal change we will have to radically change our climate system.

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

KRonn

Quote from: mongers on August 06, 2014, 04:13:07 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:10:19 PM
Ukes ain't gonna be pushovers on this. Putin is a fool.

To a large extent I agree.

There was a time within the first week after the Crimea takeover, when Ukrainian morale was so low, Russian forces could have occupied all of East Ukraine in a couple of days.

I'd think that Ukrainian morale is pretty high now as they've had some decent success fighting the Russian troops separatists. But it's going to be a slugfest between two somewhat ragged and under equipped armies.

Besides, the US has been sending MRE's to Ukraine, so yeah, that should tip the balance to the Ukes.    ;)

Valmy

Quote from: Syt on August 07, 2014, 06:35:57 AM
Yeah, but there's a vocal minority at least who thinks that while Russia is an increasingly oppressive regime the West is governed by economic interest only, without compassion, or regard for the will of the people, and that it doesn't matter which political party is in charge.

They said this about us during the Cold War.  There is a certain minority who always thinks Russia is somehow morally purer because they do not care about like money and stuff. 
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

alfred russel

From a distance, it seems like this is a disaster for eastern ukraine. It was a wealthier region of the country, with a good bit of government support going to the region. Now it is completely destabilized and basically a no go area for the rest of the world. It is also rather politically isolated.

Getting annexed by Russia may be their best outcome, although that could be a bitter pill to swallow for those that want to remain Ukrainian considering that is the best outcome because Russia is fucking up the other ones.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

CountDeMoney

Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 11:36:44 PM
  You can fire up the sheep a lot easier than you can douse them.
Siegy would say you can lead a sheep to water, but you can't make him swim.