Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Zanza]

Lend lease is gonna be really weird this time.

Jeff Stein
@JStein_WaPo
·
1h
NEWS -- WH aides in early discussions over "HEAT PUMPS FOR EUROPE" program to use US manufacturing power to send massive numbers of energy-efficient pumps to Europe to buffer Russia energy blow.

Exploring use of DPA, DOD $.

Major logistical hurdles

A heat pump only works with proper isolation and needs significant expertise to install. At least in Germany we are already way short on craftsmen. While I think it would be great to do change to heat pumps massively, it will take more than just the hardware.

[Malthus]

I read that the Turks and Israelis are thawing relations quite recently. Maybe there are moves behind the scenes to finally organize Mediterranean natural gas supplies to Europe.

Not sure how quickly this could be done though, or if it would be enough to offset Russian supplies.

[Admiral Yi]

Re Salvini: what was he thinking?  You really have to do better advance work than that.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The heat pump stuff makes sense--it is a small part of a much bigger effort for one, so let's not pretend it is more than that, and heat pumps have to be manufactured, shipped, distributed, then installed by local installers on a home-by-home basis. It would actually make pretty logical sense to start that process a full year out from next Winter--it won't be a fast process.

I think Biden should strongly consider maintaining the status quo with Venezuela. For one--Maduro is a genuine piece of shit, and us remotely considering normalizing with him is bad policy. Trump was entirely right in his policy toward Maduro and that policy should be maintained--i.e. hit him with everything short of actual invasion. I think Biden will take a hit over inflation and gas prices no matter what he dies in 2022, literally no decision can alter that, so making a decision based on that concern is illogical. However he could take even further hits with the Latin American/Hispanic community by easing sanctions on Venezuela--in fact Venezuelan concerns about Democrats being soft on socialism is one of the reasons Venezuelans in Florida were soft on support for Dems in 2020. I think the Republicans will make a lot of hay out of any agreement with Maduro.

A heat pump only works with proper isolation and needs significant expertise to install. At least in Germany we are already way short on craftsmen. While I think it would be great to do change to heat pumps massively, it will take more than just the hardware.

This isn't accurate actually. I'm not an HVAC person but I've weirdly spent a small fortune and a lot of time investigating heating a cooling and costs related to it due to some stuff with my rental properties just in the last year, so I am (unfortunately for me) well acquainted with the functions and limitations of a heat pump vs furnace system. While I imagine few will be interested in the deep dive--I will share some of the accumulated wisdom here.

A heat pump moves absorbs heat from the air outside, and moves it inside. Note that there is heat in the air even at relatively cold temperatures, however the colder the temperature, the less true this is. Heat pumps never directly generate heat, furnaces do.

The ability of a heat pump to absorb heat from outside air and pump it inside, has nothing to do with the presence or lack of insulation in a home. The presence/lack of insulation also does not affect the ability of a furnace or even a traditional fireplace to generate heat. Insulation affects how much temperature change can occur and how rapidly between the inside of the home and the outside, and it is independent of and unrelated to how the home is heated. An uninsulated home with a large and powerful gas furnace will run that furnace a lot, and probably still keep warm enough--but the lack of insulation means the furnace is running more often than it should, and you are paying more money and using more gas to heat the home than you would otherwise need to do if you had proper insulation. This same principle is at play when using a heat pump or traditional wood burning stove or etc.

What I suspect you are conflating or maybe repeating, is uninsulated homes are generally better off being heated by a furnace, for a few reasons, the main reason is the home is not designed very heat efficient, and furnaces are more efficient per unit of fuel at generating heat, than a heat pump is at moving heat. In the industry the metric "AFUE" measures how effective a heat source is at generating heating per unit of fuel/energy (note that a heat pump does generate heating, but not heat, enjoy the confusion.)

Here is where it gets more complicated, AFUE from a heat pump vs a furnace is not 1:1 comparable. A modern gas furnace regularly can achieve an AFUE of 95-100. A modern heat pump about the same. However, an older gas furnace with around an 85 AFUE, actually is generally more efficient in cold weather than a newer 100 AFUE heat pump. This is because a heat pump's efficiency declines the colder it gets.

The TLDR, to be honest--poorly insulated homes with modern gas furnaces are much easier and cheaper to warm than with heat pumps because gas furnaces "over produce" a lot of heat at a relatively moderate cost and this covers up a lot of the problems with heating a poorly insulated structure.

Why does anyone use a heat pump? Because between temps of about 30F (-1C) to 60F (15C) a heat pump is quite cheap and efficient to operate, and furnaces actually aren't amazingly efficient because again, they actually tend to generate more heat than is needed. Most furnaces don't "scale" their burn, they basically cycle between ON:OFF, and when on they blow full heat, and when off they don't blow any. Some newer furnaces are two-stage with a low-burn mode. Anyway, at moderate temperatures this constantly cycling on/off of a gas furnaces blowing high heat and then cycling off, ends up being less efficient per unit of energy than a heat pump. At colder temperatures a heat pump loses more efficiency. Most traditional heat pumps can barely keep a home warm much below freezing, modern heat pumps can usually go 5-10 degrees below freezing while being "okay."

In the United States if you live in a cold weather climate, a heat pump by itself is not considered appropriate for home heating. They instead are sold as two-phase systems--a furnace and heat pump, the furnace can be gas or electric (for cost reasons electric furnaces are undesirable but some places do use them here, gas furnaces are much more common), the way the system works is below a certain threshold, the heat pump "taps out" and the furnace kicks on. When ran ideally, the heat pump is doing most of the home heating most of the time and the furnace only comes on when it has to come on.

To be honest if you wanted to add a bunch of heat pumps to a country that doesn't regularly use them, but does use furnaces, that is exactly what you would do--you'd use the existing furnace and rig a new two-phase system, the heat pump would handle things until it couldn't. For places where most of the year it is not below freezing, this will result in a significant net reduction in gas usage to warm the home, as the furnace will only have to run occasionally.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Some polling out of Russia, largely matches what my "gut" told me, not that that is scientific:

58 percent of Russians support the invasion of Ukraine, 23 percent oppose it, new poll shows

By Claire Parker
Today at 12:20 p.m. EST

Around 58 percent of Russians approve of the invasion of Ukraine, while 23 percent oppose it, according to a poll conducted across Russia a week into Moscow's full-scale assault.

The telephone survey, carried out last week by a group of independent survey research organizations, found relatively modest support for Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine compared to typical levels of public support in the early stages of past incursions.

The poll offers rare insight into public opinion in Russia as authorities there crack down on protests against the invasion and stifle independent media coverage.

Gary Langer, a polling expert who runs a research firm, obtained the results of the study from the Russian research organizations and shared them with The Washington Post. He declined to name the Russian firms involved due to the risks they face as Moscow tightens censorship, but said he has partnered previously with the organizations, which he described as "strong, independent survey research firms."

The national survey was conducted between Feb. 28 and March 1 among a random sample of 1,640 adults across the country. Participants were asked whether they support the Russian military operation on Ukrainian territory. The research firms released the full questionnaire and data set publicly.

Forty-six percent of respondents said they firmly supported the action and 13 percent said they somewhat supported it. Roughly 23 percent opposed the operation and 13 percent had no opinion or declined to answer.

Among young people, support for the war is significantly lower, according to the study. In the 18 to 24 age group, 29 percent indicated they back the war, while 39 percent were opposed. Peak support for the war, at 75 percent, was among respondents aged 66 and older.

Fewer than half of respondents who live in cities of more than 1 million people — 48 percent — supported the invasion. A higher proportion of Russians who reported that their personal finances had improved or remained steady in the past year backed the war, compared to respondents who said their financial situation has worsened.

The results are all the more striking given the dearth of reliable information inside Russia about the invasion and its bloody consequences, Langer said. The Kremlin and state media refer euphemistically to the attack on Ukraine as a "special military action" meant to "liberate" Ukrainians and "denazify" the country.

Truth is difficult to find. Some of the few remaining independent news outlets in Russia have shuttered or suspended operations, and the Kremlin has restricted foreign websites and completely blocked Facebook. A "fake news" law that Putin signed last Friday criminalizes contradiction of the official Kremlin line. Merely describing the war as such could lead to a 15-year jail sentence, posing obvious challenges for those seeking to conduct accurate polls there.

"Considering the government control of media and information in Russia, and the natural tendency of populations around the world to rally around their leadership in times of crisis, it is surprising to see this comparatively limited level of support for Putin and his government's actions," Langer said.

Before the invasion, as Russian troops massed around Ukraine's borders, a poll published by independent Russian polling agency Levada Center found that 56 percent of Russians said a global war was one of their biggest fears.

Still, there is plenty of evidence of public support for the Russian invasion — or at least the absence of widespread criticism. While some Russian celebrities and oligarchs have voiced opposition to the war, and thousands of protesters have been arrested in cities across Russia, others are celebrating. Outside of liberal circles, public criticism has come at a relative trickle.

The results diverge from those of a survey conducted by the government-owned polling firm VCIOM, which says it found 71 percent support for the "decision to conduct a special military operation." That's compared to 75 percent of Russians who supported Moscow's military action in Chechnya in 1999 and 91 percent for Putin's annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Though the VCIOM survey found higher support for the invasion of Ukraine than the independent poll, notable trends emerge from both, Langer said — "those are considerably lower support for the war in Ukraine among younger adults in Russia, among city dwellers and among people who are struggling financially or economically."

The apparent level of public backing for Russia's invasion at the start could spell trouble for Putin if the war drags on, Langer said, pointing to the downward trajectory of support for past Russian incursions and American wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan.

"Wars of choice that drag on tend to quickly lose public support," Langer said. "Add to that the vulnerability of war support when it has not only dreadful human consequences but also broad economic consequences, and you have a recipe for potential difficulty for Putin in terms of maintaining public support moving forward."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-public-opinion-ukraine-invasion/

[Zanza]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/opinion/china-russia-sanctions-economy.html

In deciding to invade Ukraine, Vladimir Putin clearly misjudged everything. He had an exaggerated view of his own nation's military might; my description last week of Russia as a Potemkin superpower, with far less strength than meets the eye, looks even truer now. He vastly underrated Ukrainian morale and military prowess, and failed to anticipate the resolve of democratic governments — especially, although not only, the Biden administration, which, in case you haven't noticed, has done a remarkable job on everything from arming Ukraine to rallying the West around financial sanctions.

I can't add anything to the discussion of the war itself, although I will note that much of the commentary I've been reading says that Russian forces are regrouping and will resume large-scale advances in a day or two — and has been saying that, day after day, for more than a week.

What I think I can add, however, is some analysis of the effects of sanctions, and in particular an answer to one question I keep being asked: Can China, by offering itself as an alternative trading partner, bail out Putin's economy?

No, it can't.

Let's talk first about the impact of those sanctions.

One thing the West conspicuously hasn't done is try to block Russian sales of oil and gas — the country's principal exports. Oh, the United States might ban imports of Russian oil, but this would be a symbolic gesture: Oil is traded on a global market, so this would just reshuffle trade a bit, and in any case U.S. imports from Russia account for only about 5 percent of Russian production.

The West has, however, largely cut off Russia's access to the world banking system, which is a very big deal. Russian exporters may be able to get their stuff out of the country, but it's now hard for them to get paid. Probably even more important, it's hard for Russia to pay for imports — sorry, but you can't carry out modern international trade with briefcases full of $100 bills. In fact, even Russian trade that remains legally permitted seems to be drying up as Western companies that fear further restrictions and a political backlash engage in "self-sanctioning."

How much does this matter? The Russian elite can live without Prada handbags, but Western pharmaceuticals are another matter. In any case, consumer goods are only about a third of Russia's imports. The rest are capital goods, intermediate goods — that is, components used in the production of other goods — and raw materials. These are things Russia needs to keep its economy running, and their absence may cause important sectors to grind to a halt. There are already suggestions, for example, that the cutoff of spare parts and servicing may quickly cripple Russia's domestic aviation, a big problem in such a huge country.

But can China provide Putin with an economic lifeline? I'd say no, for four reasons.

First, China, despite being an economic powerhouse, isn't in a position to supply some things Russia needs, like spare parts for Western-made airplanes and high-end semiconductor chips.

Second, while China itself isn't joining in the sanctions, it is deeply integrated into the world economy. This means that Chinese banks and other businesses, like Western corporations, may engage in self-sanctioning — that is, they'll be reluctant to deal with Russia for fear of a backlash from consumers and regulators in more important markets.

Third, China and Russia are very far apart geographically. Yes, they share a border. But most of Russia's economy is west of the Urals, while most of China's is near its east coast. Beijing is 3,500 miles from Moscow, and the only practical way to move stuff across that vast expanse is via a handful of train lines that are already overstressed.

Finally, a point I don't think gets enough emphasis is the extreme difference in economic power between Russia and China.

Some politicians are warning about a possible "arc of autocracy" reminiscent of the World War II Axis — and given the atrocities underway, that's not an outlandish comparison. But the partners in any such arc would be wildly unequal.

Putin may dream of restoring Soviet-era greatness, but China's economy, which was roughly the same size as Russia's 30 years ago, is now 10 times as large. For comparison, Germany's gross domestic product was only two and a half times Italy's when the original Axis was formed.

So if you try to imagine the creation of some neofascist alliance — and again, that no longer sounds like extreme language — it would be one in which Russia would be very much the junior partner, indeed very nearly a Chinese client state. Presumably that's not what Putin, with his imperial dreams, has in mind.

China, then, can't insulate Russia from the consequences of the Ukraine invasion. It's true that the economic squeeze on Russia would be even tighter if China joined the democratic world in punishing aggression. But that squeeze is looking very severe even without Chinese participation. Russia is going to pay a very high price, in money as well as blood, for Putin's megalomania.

A piece by Krugman on the China-Russia economic ties. Read similar comments elsewhere. One more thing is that Western investments in Russia actually built plants for intermediate or finished goods in Russia as well as providing high tech and expertise for raw material extraction. China cannot easily replace the second and is probably not that interested in the first.

[Admiral Yi]

Some polling out of Russia, largely matches what my "gut" told me, not that that is scientific:

My gut was telling me the same thing (50/25/25) but I didn't mention it because it was based on nothing.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Some polling out of Russia, largely matches what my "gut" told me, not that that is scientific:

My gut was telling me the same thing (50/25/25) but I didn't mention it because it was based on nothing.

The 45ish percent who "strongly support" the invasion, I bet is a good proxy for "Putin's base", and is consistent with some broader polling from the last couple of years showing Putin's overall support is in the 40s (down from 70+ at other points.)

[celedhring]

That's a decent level of dissent in such a repressive country, tbf. I presume a non-negligible amount of people will be saying they support the war out of pure fear.

[Barrister]

That's a decent level of dissent in such a repressive country, tbf. I presume a non-negligible amount of people will be saying they support the war out of pure fear.

This.  I put zero weight on a telephone survey in Russia.  How would respondents not be worried their results will be reported right to the FSB?

There is clearly a number of Russians greater than zero who support the war.  There are at least several thousand Russians who oppose the war, since we saw protests.  But the exact numbers are impossible to tell.

[Sheilbh]

A piece by Krugman on the China-Russia economic ties. Read similar comments elsewhere. One more thing is that Western investments in Russia actually built plants for intermediate or finished goods in Russia as well as providing high tech and expertise for raw material extraction. China cannot easily replace the second and is probably not that interested in the first.

It's extraordinary that Russia is still fundamentally the model it was pre-WW1 or in the 30s: export raw materials to pay for importing tech.

On China I think it's probably worth building up a bigger renewables industry here - especially with solar. I think it would be suboptimal if to reduce our dependence on Russia energy we become entirely dependent on Chinese solar manufacturing capacity

On the polls worth pointing out Levada have almost never had an approval rating for Putin of less than 60% (as opposed to voter intention) - that's normally seen as a bit of a crisis point when the Kremlin needs to do something to rally support.

The war has a lower approval rating than Putin has ever had in a Levada poll - that's before the sanctions hit home and the visible casualties/missing boys are widely noticed. It may be that approval for it grows over time but I don't think that's normally the way it goes.

[Sheilbh]

There is clearly a number of Russians greater than zero who support the war.  There are at least several thousand Russians who oppose the war, since we saw protests.  But the exact numbers are impossible to tell.

I think the charity who's monitoring it has over 15,000 arrests for anti-war protests (including 5,000 since they imposed up to a 15 year sentence) - I'd imagine the numbers attending protests is probably at least 5-10x the number getting arrested and obviously many more who don't want to risk it. So definitely thousands.

This.  I put zero weight on a telephone survey in Russia.  How would respondents not be worried their results will be reported right to the FSB?

Yeah I imagine views on the war are very much "kitchen conversations" now in another turn back to Brezhnevism.

[Grey Fox]

Lend lease is gonna be really weird this time.

Jeff Stein
@JStein_WaPo
·
1h
NEWS -- WH aides in early discussions over "HEAT PUMPS FOR EUROPE" program to use US manufacturing power to send massive numbers of energy-efficient pumps to Europe to buffer Russia energy blow.

Exploring use of DPA, DOD $.

Major logistical hurdles

A heat pump only works with proper isolation and needs significant expertise to install. At least in Germany we are already way short on craftsmen. While I think it would be great to do change to heat pumps massively, it will take more than just the hardware.

How bad is the isolation, really? Are we talking 100 years old? I have an heat pump and 45 years old isolation and it's fine, keeps my house warm in the winter & cool in the summer.

[Sheilbh]

Poland hands over all its MiG jets to the USA who will replace them with equivalents and transfer the MiGs to Ukraine and asking other countries to do the same.

I don't doubt Polish sincerity in helping Ukraine - but is this also just a free way to upgrade their airforce? (I genuinely have no idea - I assume the US planes they're getting are better?)

[Admiral Yi]

That heat pump idea sounds better the more I think about it.  I've traveled in Europe in February.  Much milder winters than the US.  You guys don't need furnaces.

Only problem might be where to put them, for a row house with no yard.

Do the installation as a big public labor project.