Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

Russians shelling rescue operation in a flooded area, from the sounds and explosion I am assuming it's mortar fire: https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1666781760409985027

Fucking orks.

[Legbiter]

Current mutterings are it was just another small attack.

Russians be jumpy.

Yeah Ukrainians did hit them hard last night it seems but these look more designed to draw their reserves out of hiding and take stock of their reactions.

[Josquius]

Bad news coming out of some nasty casualties, including leopard 2s, down to Ukraine following Russian tactics of charging at the enemy in a line and Russia being competent 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/08/politics/ukraine-forces-resistance/index.html

[Legbiter]

Ukraine will take casualties and equipment will be lost yes.

[Josquius]

Ukraine will take casualties and equipment will be lost yes.

There's casualties in the course of a well thought out plan then there's avoidable casualties as part of a fuck up

[Barrister]

Ukraine will take casualties and equipment will be lost yes.

There's casualties in the course of a well thought out plan then there's avoidable casualties as part of a fuck up

There is insufficient evidence to suggest this is a fuck up or not so far.

[Josquius]

Ukraine will take casualties and equipment will be lost yes.

There's casualties in the course of a well thought out plan then there's avoidable casualties as part of a fuck up

There is insufficient evidence to suggest this is a fuck up or not so far.

The video footage is pretty damning and requires explanation

[grumbler]

The video footage is pretty damning and requires explanation

What video footage do you find "damning" and what qualifies you to make that judgement?

[OttoVonBismarck]

Russia's biggest blunders have been because they are not well suited to conduct large offensives any more--and haven't been for months, and are using bad troops with bad officers and a number of questionable other things going on.

Their prepared defensive positions will  be significantly easier for them to defend. Way too early to guess how the overall offensive will go, but Zelenskyy has said days ago there will be "significant loss of life" among Ukrainian soldiers. I think it is good he is being so honest, the simple reality is you cannot push over entrenched Russian positions without loss of life, that is a cost of choosing to try and conduct an offensive. Just have to hope they can do as best as possible, and minimize mistakes.

[Legbiter]

The video footage is pretty damning and requires explanation

What video footage do you find "damning" and what qualifies you to make that judgement?

This is the video vatniks released on social media.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1666859732542402569

[Tamas]

Ukraine will take casualties and equipment will be lost yes.

There's casualties in the course of a well thought out plan then there's avoidable casualties as part of a fuck up

There is insufficient evidence to suggest this is a fuck up or not so far.

The video footage is pretty damning and requires explanation

Could not it had been an ambush? Just because they got shot at doesn't mean they were assaulting enemy positions.

[Tamas]

What I would be much more upset about than a single convoy ambushed is if the Ukrainians got blind-sided by the blowup of this dam. If you give zero fucks about civilian lives -yours or the enemies- it seems like a very good defensive move, so it should have been anticipated.

[Threviel]

Lots of losses are unavoidable. Think WWII number of losses for a mechanised offensive. Friction (mines, accidents, mechanical failures...) would cause large losses even if the Russians don't shoot back.

Hopefully they'll get a breakthrough and Russian morale plummets catastrophically, but my guess is that Russian morale will not plummet that much. We need to produce more materiel to Ukraine, they need thousands of armoured vehicles and hundreds of planes to succeed.

Hopefully I'm wrong.

[Legbiter]

Could not it had been an ambush? Just because they got shot at doesn't mean they were assaulting enemy positions.

Yeah they seem to have been spotted by a drone and artillery took out 1 tank. Keep in mind this is the best footage that they have, the Ukrainians have gone radio silent so of course the vatniks are ecstatic about their one (1) Western tank destroyed and can flood the information space with it. But yes every piece of Western kit sent in any quantity will get burned/captured in a big war like this. This is not the last Western tank or IFV that will be destroyed.

[grumbler]

The video footage is pretty damning and requires explanation

What video footage do you find "damning" and what qualifies you to make that judgement?

This is the video vatniks released on social media.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1666859732542402569

I was more looking for the video showing damning evidence of a fuck-up.  This looks like a tank got hit by artillery fire, so it cannot possibly be the footage Josq finds damning.