Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

Poland, Hungary ban grain and food imports from Ukraine

This has blown up a bit - I think Romania is the only country in the region that isn't either banning Ukrainian grain or imposing unilateral tariffs (which Romania is looking at).

It reminds me a bit of the huge blow-up over German support for business by other EU countries. That happened because of sanctions and Russia turning off the gas which meant lots of countries in Europe were really badly hit - especially in energy intensive bits of their economy. Germany announced a really strong package to support their economy and industry which caused a lot of frustration from other EU partners because they were hurting from the impact of EU policy but the ability to mitigate it dependend on national balance sheet strength, so Germany could afford a lot more.

This feels slightly similar in that countries who really, really support Ukraine (Poland) and those who don't (Hungary) are experiencing really big hits in agriculture which they're struggling to manage but it's in response to EU wide policy in response to Ukraine. But without EU measure to help deal with the impact they're just left with the levers of national government. I believe the EU has realised there is now a big problem in agriculture in CEE and have started to develop a big compensation scheme - but so far it's quite small and not really meeting the needs. So Romania requested €200 million to help support farmers, and has got €10 million - which is why they've now announced they're looking at unilateral tariffs on transit (and Romania is the big route out for Ukrainian agri-food).

My suspicion is the solution will be - as on energy - a more European level of support for this sector because it is feeling a lot of pain right now.

[Tamas]

Poland, Hungary ban grain and food imports from Ukraine

This has blown up a bit - I think Romania is the only country in the region that isn't either banning Ukrainian grain or imposing unilateral tariffs (which Romania is looking at).

It reminds me a bit of the huge blow-up over German support for business by other EU countries. That happened because of sanctions and Russia turning off the gas which meant lots of countries in Europe were really badly hit - especially in energy intensive bits of their economy. Germany announced a really strong package to support their economy and industry which caused a lot of frustration from other EU partners because they were hurting from the impact of EU policy but the ability to mitigate it dependend on national balance sheet strength, so Germany could afford a lot more.

This feels slightly similar in that countries who really, really support Ukraine (Poland) and those who don't (Hungary) are experiencing really big hits in agriculture which they're struggling to manage but it's in response to EU wide policy in response to Ukraine. But without EU measure to help deal with the impact they're just left with the levers of national government. I believe the EU has realised there is now a big problem in agriculture in CEE and have started to develop a big compensation scheme - but so far it's quite small and not really meeting the needs. So Romania requested €200 million to help support farmers, and has got €10 million - which is why they've now announced they're looking at unilateral tariffs on transit (and Romania is the big route out for Ukrainian agri-food).

My suspicion is the solution will be - as on energy - a more European level of support for this sector because it is feeling a lot of pain right now.

I guess the Hungarian oligarchs (well, that's not the right name because they are all beholden to Orban, so maybe Barons would be a better term) will be busy buying even more agricultural land than they already have.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I wonder if a partial solution to this issue might be to add Ukrainian grain (that hasn't been sold to customers yet) to the European production (that also hasn't been sold yet) and see if the allies can't push the Russians out of a number of their markets.
Call it 'Cereal against imperialism', that might some impact on popular opinion in African countries.

[Jacob]

I wonder if a partial solution to this issue might be to add Ukrainian grain (that hasn't been sold to customers yet) to the European production (that also hasn't been sold yet) and see if the allies can't push the Russians out of a number of their markets.
Call it 'Cereal against imperialism', that might some impact on popular opinion in African countries.

I have no idea about the practicality of this, but I like how it sounds.

[Josquius]

So basically Poland and Co are just playing silly games to get EU money?

[Sheilbh]

So basically Poland and Co are just playing silly games to get EU money?

No. I think EU money will be the solution.

Poland which is doing more to support Ukraine than almost any other country in the world - given their size - has a big agricultural sector that is basically taking a hammering. My understanding is that it's because Ukrainian produce isn't just transiting through those countries but staying and out-competing domestic production.

I'd add Poland is already experiencing about 18% inflation - like Baltics are the highest because the highest rates in Europe basically depend on how close you are to Russia and Ukraine. And is massively increasing their defence budget as well as having a huge number of Ukrainian (and Belarussian refugees) plus giving lots of aid to Ukraine.

My suspicion is the solution will have to be EU money because the impact of European solidarity and support Ukraine is not distributed equally, countries that are further away are less exposed, countries that are poorer have less capacity to respond etc. I think there will probably need to be an EU level response to help with that - it's a bit like covid.

I think Hungary is opportunistically playing silly games to try and get more EU money/vice signal.

[Tamas]

Yeah I don't know how bad this affected Hungarian agriculture, although my guess is not nearly as much since I heard no mention of it despite the government being extremely keen to blame any sort of economic setback on the war.

Joining in on the embargo, they must think, gives them badly needed brownie points with Poland, should be popular with their farmers, as well as with their pro-Russian zombies.

But I am actually don't blaming Poland for doing this. They have been very enthusiastically supporting Ukraine despite the very ugly history between the two peoples, so I am sure they are doing the embargo for good reason.

[celedhring]

The Spanish MoD has announced a spate of accelerated armament programs today. Buried among the many items is the replenishment of Mistral launchers and missiles - apparently Spain has sent a bunch to Ukraine without announcing it.

I wonder how many similar "unofficial" shipments have there been.

[Legbiter]

Why there won't be any French-lead, European strategic autonomy, anytime soon. 

French President Emmanuel Macron is looking to reverse a string of disappointing diplomatic forays by approaching China with a plan that he believes could potentially lead to talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Macron has tasked his foreign policy adviser Emmanuel Bonne to work with China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, to establish a framework that could be used as a basis for future negotiations, according to people familiar with the plans. 

The French strategy envisions talks between Russia and Ukraine happening as soon as this summer if all goes well, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Macron Wants China's Help to Bring Russia, Ukraine to the Table

This will not win friends and influence people in Central, Eastern and Scandi Europe. Imagine having your national defense strategy hinge on the French.
 

[The Brain]

What is Macron's aim with doing this? I can think of several possibilities, but I don't know which it is.

[crazy canuck]

What is Macron's aim with doing this? I can think of several possibilities, but I don't know which it is.

Distraction from his domestic political problems?

[Legbiter]

What is Macron's aim with doing this? I can think of several possibilities, but I don't know which it is.

Only thing I can think of is a very cynical follow-on from his sales tour to China 2 weeks ago. He's ego-stroking Xi Yinping in order to further French commercial interests. Gives the impression that the Europeans can be played against each other by the Chinese.

[Jacob]

The optimist in me says that Macron is setting up the framework for Russia to agree to peace, once they've been kicked out of Ukraine.

Maybe a bit of a stretch, but we'll see.

[Sheilbh]

I'd add that French foreign policy people, who were very critical of his comments on China and Taiwan, are broadly dismissing most of this story as at best wildly over the top, at worst not true.

But I can understand why Macron attracts this type of story.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The Spanish MoD has announced a spate of accelerated armament programs today. Buried among the many items is the replenishment of Mistral launchers and missiles - apparently Spain has sent a bunch to Ukraine without announcing it.

I wonder how many similar "unofficial" shipments have there been.

Heh Mistrals, it's been a while since I heard that one. My dad worked with those during his last years in the military. (and before that both my parents worked with the Hawks, of which Spain also a number of batteries to Ukraine iirc.)

probably more than expected. Which is a good thing I guess.

can't imagine Belgium sending anything but virtuesignalling and national debt though . bleh, country run by the idiot brigade.