Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[PDH]

Some things you can't hurry.

[Josquius]

I wonder what the motive behind all these accidents is.  Is it Casino-style clean-up of people in the know, is it NKVD identifying a real conspiracy by oligarchs against Putin and offing the participants, is it a civil war among elites?  It seems too organized for the last one, so I assume it's Russian intelligence at work, but for what reason?

Or another option. Russia knows its already top of the shit list so might as well tie up a bunch of other loose ends whilst it's stock can't drop any lower.

[The Larch]

Putin's mission to Minsk raises fears he will drag Belarus into Ukraine war
Putin and Lukashenko announce more joint manouevres as Kyiv warns of potential new invasion from north

Vladimir Putin has discussed closer military cooperation with his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, during a rare visit to the country, as fears grow in Kyiv that Moscow is pushing its closest ally to join a new ground offensive against Ukraine.

The meeting, which was Putin's first visit to Belarus since 2019, came hours after Moscow launched a fresh barrage of "kamikaze drones" that damaged "key infrastructure" in and around Kyiv, according to the mayor, Vitali Klitschko.

Speaking at a joint press conference in Minsk late Monday, the two leaders said that they agreed to continue a series of joint military drills that have caused alarm in Ukraine.

"We agreed to continue to take all necessary measures together to ensure the security of our two countries. To give priority to the training of troops, increase their combat readiness ... and continue the practice of regular joint exercises and other operational and combat training activities," Putin said.

Lukashenko called Russia "his closest ally and strategic partner" and said that Belarus could not protect its "independence alone".

The Kremlin has for years strived to deepen integration with Belarus, which heavily relies on Moscow for discounted oil and loans. Lukashenko has previously resisted outright unification with Russia despite the country's growing isolation from the west after his brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 2020.

Putin on Monday said he did not want to "absorb" anyone and accused unspecified "enemies" of trying to stop Russia's integration with Belarus.

The press conference came on the back of a warning by senior Ukrainian officials and military commanders that Russia may try another attempt at invading the country from the north.

Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said on Sunday that Ukraine was ready for "all possible defence scenarios" against Moscow and its ally.

"Protecting our border, both with Russia and Belarus, is our constant priority," Zelenskiy said after a meeting with Ukraine's top military command. "We are preparing for all possible defence scenarios."

Lukashenko has previously allowed the Kremlin to use his country as a platform to send tens of thousands of Russian troops into Ukraine, while Russian war jets have taken off from Belarusian bases.

But Lukashenko has not joined the war directly or sent his own troops into the fight, at times even subtly criticising the invasion, saying he felt the conflict was "dragging on".

A series of military drills held with Russia on Belarus's border over the last month have once again raised fears that Belarus is about to enter the fray.

Hours before Putin's visit, the Belarusian defence ministry announced the completion of the latest snap military drills, which Lukashenko had ordered to check the "combat readiness" of the nation's army.

"Putin's visit to Minsk could indicate that Putin is trying to set conditions for ... a renewed offensive against Ukraine – possibly against northern Ukraine or Kyiv – in winter 2023," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based thinktank, said in a report last week.

Experts remain sceptical about the chance of Belarusian troops, considered relatively weak, entering Ukraine, even if Putin is pushing for it. Some analysts have proposed that Lukashenko's recent manoeuvres were a ploy designed by Moscow to tie up Ukrainian forces near the border to prevent their deployment to other areas.

"Belarusian forces remain extremely unlikely to invade Ukraine without a Russian strike force. It is far from clear that Lukashenko would commit Belarusian forces to fight in Ukraine even alongside Russian troops," ISW's report said.

Artyom Shraibman, a Belarusian political analyst and non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said any direct involvement of Belarus in Ukraine could present a political risk for Lukashenko, who survived a protest movement in 2020.

"Participation in this war would be extremely unpopular: all available polls show that more than 90% of Belarusians do not want to send their army there," Shraibman said. "And this includes supporters of Lukashenko and the pro-Russia part of society."

But Shraibman warned that while Lukashenko would try to resist, his position could change in the future. "For now, Putin seems content with everything that Lukashenko has given him. But if he demands direct involvement from Lukashenko in the war, I cannot bet that he will be successful in resisting for ever."

Zelenskiy on Monday urged western leaders to supply a wide range of weapons systems to his country to end the "Russian aggression".

"A lot depends on you – how this war will end. The more successful our defence forces are, the faster the Russian aggression will fail," he said in a video address to the heads of countries in the Joint Expeditionary Force, a UK-led grouping of northern European countries.

"I ask you to increase the possibility of supplying air defence systems to our country, and to help speed up the relevant decisions to be taken by our partners," Zelenskiy said, addressing the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak.

Zelenskiy went on to address several European leaders directly, asking, among others, Norway to supply more Nasams launchers, Denmark to transfer Caesar howitzers, and Lithuania to send Nasams as well as Stinger missiles.

[The Brain]

Belarus doesn't have nukes. Destroy them if they attack.

[grumbler]

Belarus doesn't have nukes. Destroy them if they attack.

My thoughts exactly.  Presumably the US would let the Ukrainians take the gloves off when acting against Belarus using US weapons.

[DGuller]

Does Ukraine actually have an offensive capability to invade Belarus?  They're punching above their weight, but their weight is still pretty damn low.

[Zoupa]

The Ukrainians probably have the strongest army in Europe at this point.

[DGuller]

The Ukrainians probably have the strongest army in Europe at this point.

That may or may not be the case, but that doesn't mean much for this question regardless.  It may well be that none of the European armies in 2022 have enough offensive capability to invade another country successfully.

[Valmy]

The Ukrainians probably have the strongest army in Europe at this point.

That may or may not be the case, but that doesn't mean much for this question regardless.  It may well be that none of the European armies in 2022 have enough offensive capability to invade another country successfully.

A country next door? That's not exactly projecting power.

[DGuller]

I think the swift success of the Russian invasion of Ukraine leads people to underestimate just how difficult of an undertaking invading even a neighboring country is.

[viper37]

Does Ukraine actually have an offensive capability to invade Belarus?  They're punching above their weight, but their weight is still pretty damn low.

They may not have to.

Here is the analysis from a retired French General:
https://twitter.com/G_Yakovleff/status/1603050675130499072

Shortened translation:
Belarussia? No, now they can do something really stupid, it's possible, it already happened.  If the Belarussian army, that ain't worthy shit, they were trained by Russians and are less motivated than Russians, if they attack Ukraine, they'll take it right in the face. And the end result will be they'll cross the border back running, up to Minsk and they will replace the dictator.  Loukachenko, you want to be unemployed, start like this Comrade.

[Valmy]

I think the swift success of the Russian invasion of Ukraine leads people to underestimate just how difficult of an undertaking invading even a neighboring country is.

I thought the problem of the Europeans was force projection around the world. Besides it isn't like if by some weird situation Poland invades Belarus to support they wouldn't probably be doing it all on their own.

Also Belarus is 1/3rd the size of Ukraine and has less than quarter of the population and has a truly gargantuan border with NATO countries + Ukraine. Plus it isn't like the Euros have to conquer Belarus in a bloody conquest and invasion, just convince it to peace out and stop attacking Ukraine.

[Tonitrus]

Poland should just let Ukrainian forces transit their borders to take Kaliningrad.

[The Brain]

Actually I was thinking of airstrikes on attack columns and stuff.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Does Ukraine actually have an offensive capability to invade Belarus?  They're punching above their weight, but their weight is still pretty damn low.

They may not have to.

Here is the analysis from a retired French General:
https://twitter.com/G_Yakovleff/status/1603050675130499072

Shortened translation:
Belarussia? No, now they can do something really stupid, it's possible, it already happened.  If the Belarussian army, that ain't worthy shit, they were trained by Russians and are less motivated than Russians, if they attack Ukraine, they'll take it right in the face. And the end result will be they'll cross the border back running, up to Minsk and they will replace the dictator.  Loukachenko, you want to be unemployed, start like this Comrade.

Sounds even better in french!
Luka knows, which is probably why he's sitting on his hands