Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[DGuller]

I agree with The Brain.  You can't give up in a peace deal what is not yours.  Russia can only give up its veto of Ukraine's NATO membership if it has one in the first place.

[Zoupa]

By keeping alive the myth of a russian sphere of influence.

It's turtles all the way down.

Is there any way this thesis can be subjected to proof?  Is there any empirical test that one can conduct to see whether or not this suzerainty exists?

I personally think this is on the level of an internet meme.  *If* Ukraine were to include membership in a peace treaty then people who opposed this provision can say that Ukraine has been OWNED, that Ukraine is now Russia's BITCH.  And in the real world nothing would change.

They're trying to reestablish this suzerainty with tanks and rockets. It doesn't really get more empirical than that.

And of course in the "real world" it would have an impact. The next time a big decision for Ukraine comes up, the world will look to russia to make sure it's cool with them. Oh Ukraine wants to join the EU? Better make sure russia is ok with it. Ukraine wants to only deliver services in Ukrainian? Let's consult russia first.

And then where's the line? This is bread and butter stuff to the Kremlin, blurry lines.

I'm surprised you don't see how this has ramifications.

[Admiral Yi]

And of course in the "real world" it would have an impact. The next time a big decision for Ukraine comes up, the world will look to russia to make sure it's cool with them. Oh Ukraine wants to join the EU? Better make sure russia is ok with it. Ukraine wants to only deliver services in Ukrainian? Let's consult russia first.

Great, we have our testable hypothesis, no need to speculate further.  If NATO membership is part of a peace deal, and in the future Russia vetoes EU membership, you and Brain were right and I was wrong.   And vice versa.

[Zoupa]

 

[Razgovory]

Russia is abandoning checkpoints in Kherson and taken its flag down from the main administrative building.  Gesture of good will incoming.

[Josquius]

I would see Ukraine not joining NATO less as giving Russia control over whether Ukriane does this or not and more Ukraine entirely under its own control promising to remain neutral to keep the peace.

Though I would also say that ship has sailed. Ukraine Finlandising seemed a good solution pre war but its now pretty clear that this kind of promise would mean nothing to Russia and a solid guarantee of protection is very much in Ukraines interest.

So basically put the factoryowners in charge of deciding health and safety regulations for workers?
There's a pretty clear flaw in this thinking.

A country is not a factory, is where this breaks down.

Ignoring analogy and just looking at it straight it doesn't make sense.
By your reasoning stuff like what China is up to with the Uighurs is totally fine as its firmly up to individual countries what rights their people do and don't have. Foreigners should just shut up and leave China alone.

[Valmy]

The problem isn't that the Uighurs don't have their own state and have to share a multi-ethnic state with dirty non-Uighurs, the problem is the abuse of the individual rights of the Uighurs. Those rights actually exist and their defense are a justifiable reason for secession. I would support an independence movement on that basis. Indeed that is the entire second paragraph of the US Declaration of Independence. It is not exactly some kind of new radical principle.

Human rights are what matter, not weird group rights especially as no polity is ever going to have an indentity purity about it. It is always going to be a bunch of various groups and individuals.

[The Brain]

Russia giving Ukraine permission to join NATO is only required in a situation where Russia has suzerainty over Ukraine. If Ukraine includes such a permission in a deal then they have accepted that such suzerainty exists.

So in the future if Russia tells Ukraine "because we gave you permission to join NATO, you are now our vassal, and you must not do X, Y, or Z" Ukraine will agree?

The future is  an uncertain place. In the here and now Russia giving Ukraine permission to join NATO in an agreement signed by Ukraine implies that Ukraine needs Russia's permission to join NATO.

[The Brain]

Russia is abandoning checkpoints in Kherson and taken its flag down from the main administrative building.  Gesture of good will incoming.

Russia is good will hunting.

[Admiral Yi]

The future is  an uncertain place. In the here and now Russia giving Ukraine permission to join NATO in an agreement signed by Ukraine implies that Ukraine needs Russia's permission to join NATO.

I thought this was the same line I followed with Zoupa.

What are the real world consequences of this implication?

[The Brain]

The future is  an uncertain place. In the here and now Russia giving Ukraine permission to join NATO in an agreement signed by Ukraine implies that Ukraine needs Russia's permission to join NATO.

I thought this was the same line I followed with Zoupa.

What are the real world consequences of this implication?

It greatly supports, both inside Russia and on the international stage, the Russian narrative that Ukraine isn't a real country and is actually just wayward Russians. Exact consequences depend on many factors, eg which regime will be in the Kremlin, if Ukraine gets into NATO or not, etc etc.

[Admiral Yi]

It greatly supports, both inside Russia and on the international stage, the Russian narrative that Ukraine isn't a real country and is actually just wayward Russians. Exact consequences depend on many factors, eg which regime will be in the Kremlin, if Ukraine gets into NATO or not, etc etc.

I think it does the exact opposite.  It declares, on the world stage, that Russia recognizes Ukraine's ability to treat with itself as an equal, sovereign nation, and by implication to freely enter into treaty obligations of its own choosing.  That's a big dent in the Russian doctrine of "the near abroad."  It will have been demonstrated that Russia can't just throw its weight around any more and expect people to fold.

[Zoupa]

Newsflash: russia does not give a shit about the treaties it signs. All these rights have already been recognized and signed by russia/putin.

See:

Belovezh Accords
Massandra Accords
Budapest Memorandum
Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet
Russian–Ukrainian Friendship Treaty
Kharkiv Pact
Minsk 1 & 2

[The Brain]

It greatly supports, both inside Russia and on the international stage, the Russian narrative that Ukraine isn't a real country and is actually just wayward Russians. Exact consequences depend on many factors, eg which regime will be in the Kremlin, if Ukraine gets into NATO or not, etc etc.

I think it does the exact opposite.  It declares, on the world stage, that Russia recognizes Ukraine's ability to treat with itself as an equal, sovereign nation, and by implication to freely enter into treaty obligations of its own choosing.  That's a big dent in the Russian doctrine of "the near abroad."  It will have been demonstrated that Russia can't just throw its weight around any more and expect people to fold.

We will have to agree to disagree on its big picture meaning.

In addition, such an article gives Russia another tool to try to sabotage Ukraine's road into NATO. Some real or imagined Ukrainian breach of some other article in the agreement can be used by Russia to claim that the permission is no longer valid. The exact consequences of such a move will depend on a lot of factors.

[Admiral Yi]

We will have to agree to disagree on its big picture meaning.

In addition, such an article gives Russia another tool to try to sabotage Ukraine's road into NATO. Some real or imagined Ukrainian breach of some other article in the agreement can be used by Russia to claim that the permission is no longer valid. The exact consequences of such a move will depend on a lot of factors.

The countries that would use a lawyer's quibble in that scenario to block membership would block it regardless.