Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Brain]

We will have to agree to disagree on its big picture meaning.

In addition, such an article gives Russia another tool to try to sabotage Ukraine's road into NATO. Some real or imagined Ukrainian breach of some other article in the agreement can be used by Russia to claim that the permission is no longer valid. The exact consequences of such a move will depend on a lot of factors.

The countries that would use a lawyer's quibble in that scenario to block membership would block it regardless.

The expressed will of Russia might not be considered a lawyer's quibble by all parties involved.

[Admiral Yi]

The expressed will of Russia might not be considered a lawyer's quibble by all parties involved.

But those douchebag NATO members already exist.  My peace treaty would not create them.

[The Brain]

The expressed will of Russia might not be considered a lawyer's quibble by all parties involved.

But those douchebag NATO members already exist.  My peace treaty would not create them.

If Russian permission for Ukraine to join NATO doesn't matter then why include it in the treaty in the first place?

[Admiral Yi]

If Russian permission for Ukraine to join NATO doesn't matter then why include it in the treaty in the first place?

Because peace is a prerequisite for NATO membership.

[The Brain]

If Russian permission for Ukraine to join NATO doesn't matter then why include it in the treaty in the first place?

Because peace is a prerequisite for NATO membership.

Do you think that Russia will only sign a peace treaty it includes Russian permission for Ukraine to join NATO?

[Admiral Yi]

Do you think that Russia will only sign a peace treaty it includes Russian permission for Ukraine to join NATO?

Bro, that's a goofy question.

[The Brain]

Do you think that Russia will only sign a peace treaty it includes Russian permission for Ukraine to join NATO?

Bro, that's a goofy question.

Elaborate.

[Admiral Yi]

Elaborate.

Obviously Russia will not only sign a peace treaty that includes NATO membership.  I'm sure if Ukraine proposed a deal in which Russia annexed Ukraine Russia would happily sign it.

[The Brain]

Elaborate.

Obviously Russia will not only sign a peace treaty that includes NATO membership.  I'm sure if Ukraine proposed a deal in which Russia annexed Ukraine Russia would happily sign it.

But you think that a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, ie a deal that would be acceptable to both parties, requires Russian permission for Ukraine to join NATO to be included, or at least is very unlikely without such permission? Otherwise I don't see how the requirement for Ukraine to be at peace to join NATO makes such permission necessary.

[Admiral Yi]

But you think that a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, ie a deal that would be acceptable to both parties, requires Russian permission for Ukraine to join NATO, or at least is very unlikely without such permission? Otherwise I don't see how the requirement for Ukraine to be at peace to join NATO makes such permission necessary.

Fair enough.  But I also think a deal with a NATO clause would be as palatable to Russia as one without.  For the reasons you laid out.  It would not of itself be a deal breaker.

[The Brain]

But you think that a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, ie a deal that would be acceptable to both parties, requires Russian permission for Ukraine to join NATO, or at least is very unlikely without such permission? Otherwise I don't see how the requirement for Ukraine to be at peace to join NATO makes such permission necessary.

Fair enough.  But I also think a deal with a NATO clause would be as palatable to Russia as one without.  For the reasons you laid out.  It would not of itself be a deal breaker.

FWIW I feel that a NATO clause would have definite both pros and cons for Russia, and would have great spinning potential in both directions, so I view it as being roughly equally good or bad for Russia with great uncertainties and potential to backfire. Ie I agree that Russia, if they look to their own interests, could accept either.

Of course a given regime in the Kremlin might have very strong opinions for or against such a clause, but that's a question for Kremlinologists.

[Threviel]

Any peace deal that includes paragraphs on implied Russian vetoes on Ukrainian policy is highly unlikely in my mind.

[Tamas]

Anyways, I think the recent fold of Russia on leaving the grain shipment agreement (once it became clear they would need to shoot at Turkish ships to enforce a blockade) proves that theories of Putin seeking escalation with the West are incorrect.

[Sheilbh]

UK MoD update says it's "likely" Russian generals are setting up blocking lines to prevent retreats and may be trying to get them to open fire on troops who are retreating.

Truly all the greatest hits of Russia at war. Although striking that even with the mobilisation order, it feels like there isn't the ideological/political preparation for that sort of shift - as there was with Stalin's no step back order.

[Berkut]

I would see Ukraine not joining NATO less as giving Russia control over whether Ukriane does this or not and more Ukraine entirely under its own control promising to remain neutral to keep the peace.

Though I would also say that ship has sailed. Ukraine Finlandising seemed a good solution pre war but its now pretty clear that this kind of promise would mean nothing to Russia and a solid guarantee of protection is very much in Ukraines interest.

So basically put the factoryowners in charge of deciding health and safety regulations for workers?
There's a pretty clear flaw in this thinking.

A country is not a factory, is where this breaks down.

Ignoring analogy and just looking at it straight it doesn't make sense.
By your reasoning stuff like what China is up to with the Uighurs is totally fine as its firmly up to individual countries what rights their people do and don't have. Foreigners should just shut up and leave China alone.

The Ughurs are a perfect examples of exactly what we are talking about - a people who ARE NOT given equal political rights, are not free to exercise their political rights, and have zero influence over those who rule them.

I don't understand why you pretend like we don't get this. We are Americans! Our foundational political document states

... When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, ...

... Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,

That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

The Uhgurs would have a completely defensible right to overthrow the Chinese government, with violence if necessary. So could the Chinese people in general, for that matter.

But you are saying the Ukrainians should overthrow their own government, and we should support that, if they wish it. Not because they have determined that their government has in fact become destructive of their own ends, or has not represented them.

The two situations are not the same. Ukraine is a democracy, as imperfect as it might be, and I have never seen any evidence at all the the Ukrainians living in Crimea or the Donbas were oppressed or not given a political voice.

You know, democracy is actually better then authoritarianism....right? There is a value judgement to be made between the form of government Ukraine is trying to uphold and the form of government that China has, much less the form of government within Russia. It's ok to notice that one is better then the other.