BREAKING NEWS - Malaysian airliner crashes on Russian-Ukrainian border

[Tamas]

285 on board. Totally not shot down by overeager Russians, I am sure.

[derspiess]

Aw, shit.  This will be interesting.

[DGuller]

I know that we're all hoping the Russians did it, but Ukrainian air defenses don't have a good track record against passenger airplanes either.

[Viking]

ahh.. so thats where it went...

[derspiess]

My first thought was why would they plan a flight path right over what is essentially a war zone like that?

[11B4V]

The Malaysian's dont have very much luck nowadays.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I'd bet some money that all three groups (Ukraine, Ukrainian Rebels, Russia) deny it was them and point the figure at the opposition. My suspicion is the most likely culprit are the rebels who have been shooting down Ukrainian planes with Russian provided missiles, and who would probably easily fuck up and shoot down a passenger jet. Of course it's not unlikely the Ukrainian or Russian military did it, but I think the rebels are a tad more incompetent.

[Tamas]

It was shot down at 10000 meters, so either a SAM (I guess it must be Ukraine in that case) or a fighter jet did it (both sides possible). We will probably never know.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Hmm, I guess they're saying at its elevation the portable missiles the rebels have probably could not down a plane. Would need a longer range missile, probably radar guided, or a fighter jet. That makes it more likely it's the Ukrainian or Russian military. I can't imagine it was the Ukrainians simply because I'm not sure why/what planes they'd be shooting down. The only planes that would be in the area that they'd be unhappy about might be Russian planes (I don't believe the rebels have an air force), and the Ukrainians wouldn't deliberately shoot down a Russian plane for fear of reprisal.

That makes it seem like it would have to be the Russians.

Of course there's also no evidence it was shot down, it may have simply crashed and everyone is running with the story from a shady Ukrainian Interior Minister that it was shot down.

[DGuller]

I'd bet some money that all three groups (Ukraine, Ukrainian Rebels, Russia) deny it was them and point the figure at the opposition. My suspicion is the most likely culprit are the rebels who have been shooting down Ukrainian planes with Russian provided missiles, and who would probably easily fuck up and shoot down a passenger jet. Of course it's not unlikely the Ukrainian or Russian military did it, but I think the rebels are a tad more incompetent.

That sounds like by far the likeliest explanation.  I assume the rebels don't have the means to identify aircraft like even the most incompetent of armies do.

[OttoVonBismarck]

It would definitely be odd if it was the Ukrainian military; since the flight had to have crossed Ukraine from the West and traveled the length of the country I'd expect Ukrainian air traffic control and air defense would easily have the flight identified as a valid civilian flight. It's strange they'd decide to just start shooting at it right as it gets close to Russia.

If it was separatists, based on what I'm hearing about the missile system, it would almost have to be either current or former Russian military dressed as separatists. The missile system involved isn't known to be used by the separatists, and if it is most likely it's under Russian supervision/control.

[Grinning_Colossus]

Apparently the rebels seized some BUK anti-air missiles a few weeks ago.
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_06_29/Donetsk-militia-takes-control-of-Ukrainian-anti-air-installation-1561/

[mongers]

My first thought was why would they plan a flight path right over what is essentially a war zone like that?

Yeah, mine too.

Given the two previous shoot-downs over the last 2-3 days, looks odds on to be trigger happy rebels with their newly 'acquired' sophisticated SAMs.

[KRonn]

It would definitely be odd if it was the Ukrainian military; since the flight had to have crossed Ukraine from the West and traveled the length of the country I'd expect Ukrainian air traffic control and air defense would easily have the flight identified as a valid civilian flight. It's strange they'd decide to just start shooting at it right as it gets close to Russia.

If it was separatists, based on what I'm hearing about the missile system, it would almost have to be either current or former Russian military dressed as separatists. The missile system involved isn't known to be used by the separatists, and if it is most likely it's under Russian supervision/control.

The news is saying that Russia has been supplying the Ukrainian Rebels with more sophisticated weapons against aircraft, including SA11s, or Book, missile systems. The Rebels shot down a Ukrainian transport aircraft earlier but no idea if it was at low altitude with shoulder fired weapons. Rebels have been cheering about shoot downs on social media.

[CountDeMoney]

The entire Ukrainian adventure is an issue of Russian pride and Putin egoism;  these regular Russian army volunteers rebels have been getting first echelon stuff since the beginning, let alone what they've managed to score from the Ukrainians.