How many years will it be before an American can safely visit Baghdad?

Started by alfred russel, June 11, 2014, 08:13:13 PM

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How many years will it be before an American can safely visit Baghdad and travel through Iraq? (pick the first date that will be safe)?

10 years from now
2 (8.3%)
20 years from now
4 (16.7%)
30 years from now
5 (20.8%)
40 years from now
3 (12.5%)
Greater than 40 years (basically never in our lifetimes)
10 (41.7%)

Total Members Voted: 24

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alfred russel

June 11, 2014, 08:13:13 PM
I'm curious on this one.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

alfred russel

#1
June 11, 2014, 08:15:01 PM
I'm not sure how to vote, but I suspect it will be quite a bit longer than Iran.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

11B4V

#2
June 11, 2014, 08:16:02 PM
Depends on what you gauge "safely" as. Can you safely visit E. St. Loius or Gary, ID??
"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

alfred russel

#3
June 11, 2014, 08:17:38 PM Last Edit: June 11, 2014, 08:20:03 PM by alfred russel
Quote from: 11B4V on June 11, 2014, 08:16:02 PM
Depends on what you gauge "safely" as. Can you safely visit E. St. Loius or Gary, ID??

Yes.

For purposes of this poll, I'd consider Mexico City to be safe. Obviously there are objective dangers, but it isn't crazy to visit or move there permanently without armed escort. I think that is a good criteria for what is safe.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

11B4V

#4
June 11, 2014, 08:18:12 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on June 11, 2014, 08:17:38 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on June 11, 2014, 08:16:02 PM
Depends on what you gauge "safely" as. Can you safely visit E. St. Loius or Gary, ID??

Yes.

Then your set.
"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

Phillip V

#5
June 11, 2014, 08:36:56 PM
The deteriorating situation in Iraq is not what the Obama administration expected when it withdrew the last American troops from there in 2011. In a March 2012 speech, Antony J. Blinken, who is Mr. Obama's deputy national security adviser, asserted that "Iraq today is less violent" than "at any time in recent history."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/12/world/middleeast/iraq-asked-us-for-airstrikes-on-militants-officials-say.html

11B4V

#6
June 11, 2014, 08:38:41 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on June 11, 2014, 08:36:56 PM
The deteriorating situation in Iraq is not what the Obama administration expected when it withdrew the last American troops from there in 2011. In a March 2012 speech, Antony J. Blinken, who is Mr. Obama's deputy national security adviser, asserted that "Iraq today is less violent" than "at any time in recent history."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/12/world/middleeast/iraq-asked-us-for-airstrikes-on-militants-officials-say.html

Shhh, dont tell Raz.
"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

Josquius

#7
June 11, 2014, 10:52:40 PM
What 11b4v says.
Any poor country is a bit risky. You could visit now and potentially be ok. Potentially not. But the same goes for Manilla.
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Eddie Teach

#8
June 11, 2014, 11:11:02 PM
Planning your next vacation?  :ph34r:
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

DGuller

#9
June 12, 2014, 12:50:48 AM
Quote from: Phillip V on June 11, 2014, 08:36:56 PM
The deteriorating situation in Iraq is not what the Obama administration expected when it withdrew the last American troops from there in 2011. In a March 2012 speech, Antony J. Blinken, who is Mr. Obama's deputy national security adviser, asserted that "Iraq today is less violent" than "at any time in recent history."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/12/world/middleeast/iraq-asked-us-for-airstrikes-on-militants-officials-say.html
Sometimes politicians say things publicly that they don't believe privately.  It's not like Obama could say "Iraqis are fucked no matter what, we needed to wash our hands of this mess ASAP."  Republicans would lose their shit over him cursing in public, for one.

Warspite

#10
June 12, 2014, 04:44:12 AM
How long did it take for Americans to be able to safely visit Beirut?
" SIR – I must commend you on some of your recent obituaries. I was delighted to read of the deaths of Foday Sankoh (August 9th), and Uday and Qusay Hussein (July 26th). Do you take requests? "

OVO JE SRBIJA
BUDALO, OVO JE POSTA

Monoriu

#11
June 12, 2014, 04:57:41 AM
Quote from: Warspite on June 12, 2014, 04:44:12 AM
How long did it take for Americans to be able to safely visit Beirut?

Is Beirut safe to visit now?  I don't know but my assumption is no. 

Warspite

#12
June 12, 2014, 05:09:54 AM
Beirut's pretty safe as far as I know. Though I wouldn't travel to the south of Lebanon for sure.
" SIR – I must commend you on some of your recent obituaries. I was delighted to read of the deaths of Foday Sankoh (August 9th), and Uday and Qusay Hussein (July 26th). Do you take requests? "

OVO JE SRBIJA
BUDALO, OVO JE POSTA

KRonn

#13
June 12, 2014, 06:59:56 AM
Iraq's capital was probably somewhat safe for a westerner before ISIS came along in strength but not now and certainly not in the future unless the Iraqi govt. and military can oppose the radicals. So far the track record on that has been poor and if they can get their act together it will be a long term civil war, just like in Syria.

alfred russel

#14
June 12, 2014, 08:15:08 AM
Quote from: Warspite on June 12, 2014, 04:44:12 AM
How long did it take for Americans to be able to safely visit Beirut?

This is sort of what I was thinking. A place like Vietnam was obviously not a place Americans wanted to visit in my parent's generation, but is now firmly on the tourist trail.

However, Iraq feels a bit different. I have a feeling American tourists may be hitting up Tehran before Baghdad.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014
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