The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[Caliga]

I used to think that Assad would eventually win this thing, but now I'm not so sure.  Unless someone major (US, Russia, etc.) decides to intervene, this civil war could go on for a very long time.

[jimmy olsen]

I used to think that Assad would eventually win this thing, but now I'm not so sure.  Unless someone major (US, Russia, etc.) decides to intervene, this civil war could go on for a very long time.

It's already been going on for four years hasn't it? Assad's been having really bad manpower problems lately, the Alawaites have been bled white. I can't see him hanging on to more than the coast by the end of the year.

EDIT: With the fall of Palmyra, there is no hope of relieving the siege of Deir ez-Zor. It will certainly fall. Furthermore, capturing Palmyra puts ISIS in position to seize vital oil and gas fields, as well as to advance on Homs and Damscus.

[DontSayBanana]

ISIS controls half of Syria? ISIS controls a lot of sand.

I don't see ISIS rolling through all of Syria; it takes and holds areas that are predominantly Arab Sunni, which is because it is a movement of the disenfranchised Arab Sunni. ISIS won't be rolled back until there is a credible vision for Iraq and Syria that offers Sunni Arabs a reason to ditch these Islamist thugs. This will need separate processes in Syria and Iraq. (I would also add that if you want to unravel the Syrian regime's support, you also need to craft a vision of Syria's future that appeals to the many minorities of the country that emphatically do not want to live under Sunni Arab domination.)

That doesn't make ISIS less of a threat, but there needs to be some context to the alarmism.

I just saw a former senator spouting this line as a justification that we need to stay out of it because it's just sectarian violence, in his opinion.  That's a gross oversimplification- most of the Iraqi militias fighting ISIS now are actually Shiite; the current sectarian complaints are more along the lines of deliberately weakening the Sunni brigades as an excuse to send in Shiite militias as "reinforcements."

[KRonn]

For a while now I've been wanting and hoping that Assad would win because of what the aftermath of yet another failed state would be, especially a major Mid East nation like Syria. It's really surprising to see the strength of ISIS in being able to grind down the Syrian military and also be on the offensive elsewhere in Iraq, Libya, gathering strength in Afghanistan and probably other places.

[jimmy olsen]

ISIS controls half of Syria? ISIS controls a lot of sand.

I don't see ISIS rolling through all of Syria; it takes and holds areas that are predominantly Arab Sunni, which is because it is a movement of the disenfranchised Arab Sunni. ISIS won't be rolled back until there is a credible vision for Iraq and Syria that offers Sunni Arabs a reason to ditch these Islamist thugs. This will need separate processes in Syria and Iraq. (I would also add that if you want to unravel the Syrian regime's support, you also need to craft a vision of Syria's future that appeals to the many minorities of the country that emphatically do not want to live under Sunni Arab domination.)

That doesn't make ISIS less of a threat, but there needs to be some context to the alarmism.

I just saw a former senator spouting this line as a justification that we need to stay out of it because it's just sectarian violence, in his opinion.  That's a gross oversimplification- most of the Iraqi militias fighting ISIS now are actually Shiite; the current sectarian complaints are more along the lines of deliberately weakening the Sunni brigades as an excuse to send in Shiite militias as "reinforcements."

While the Shiite militias are much better than the Iraqi army, they're still not that good. They outnumbered ISIS ten to one in the second battle of Tikrit yet they lost as many men as ISIS did in the fighting.

[Admiral Yi]

Dana Bash, CNN chick, pronounced it Pal Mai Rah.  Is that how you guys pronounce it?

I've always pronounced it Pal Mee Rah.

[Caliga]

Pal Mai Rah.  But I grew up near Palmyra, New Jersey and that's how they say it, so I probably assumed it was pronounced the same whether or not it actually is.

[Duque de Bragança]

Dana Bash, CNN chick, pronounced it Pal Mai Rah.  Is that how you guys pronounce it?

I've always pronounced it Pal Mee Rah.

Wikipedia says /ˌpælˈmaɪərə/

I pronounce it the ancient Greek way Παλμύρα
Roughly, ü instead of aɪ 

[Berkut]

Pal Mai Rah.  But I grew up near Palmyra, New Jersey and that's how they say it, so I probably assumed it was pronounced the same whether or not it actually is.

Palmyra, NY is about 15 miles from me, and we pronounce it PAL-MY-RUH

[Caliga]

Palmyra, NY is about 15 miles from me, and we pronounce it PAL-MY-RUH

That's probably a better way of rendering Palmyra, NJ's local pronunciation.

[Ed Anger]

VER SALES

[jimmy olsen]

Sirte, Gaddafi's home town, and a city of 80,000 has fallen to the forces of the Islamic State.

http://news.yahoo.com/gaddafis-home-town-falls-islamic-state-anarchic-libya-094455638.html

IS soldiers overrun Iraqi government lines 10km east of Ramadi.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/21/isis-ramadi_n_7390892.html

[jimmy olsen]

The destruction of Palmyra has begun.

http://wap.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/destruction-of-historic-city-of-palmyra-begun-115052101483_1.html

[KRonn]

The destruction of Palmyra has begun.

http://wap.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/destruction-of-historic-city-of-palmyra-begun-115052101483_1.html

So sad, priceless antiques. That's on top of all the death and horror they do to the residents. 

[grumbler]

This is why we can't have nice things.