The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[Razgovory]

He's reading the Koran, the oral stuff, Islamic jurisprudence, he's reading their online magazine, he's listening to their public statements, he's interviewing Islamists who's passports have been revoked in the UK and Australia.

By negotiation I mean negotiation with other countries.

From what I gather Islamic Jurisprudence isn't a big thing with ISIS (or at least according to the Atlantic article).  But in short, it's a lot like a Kremlinologist reading Pravda, The Communist Manifesto, and interviewing members of the Red Brigades.  And then trying to figure out what they are up to in Cuba. His comparison to the Branch Davidians is quite telling though, as they practiced a form of Christianity that was completely alien to most Christians.

Most of the western focus in on trickle of Foreign fighters.  I doubt that's where they are getting the bulk of their recruits.  The question really should be, what are they doing to get Sunni tribesman in Iraq and Syria to fight for them.  Why is not working on Kurds?

[dps]

The question really should be, what are they doing to get Sunni tribesman in Iraq and Syria to fight for them.  Why is not working on Kurds?

Well, the idea of a caliphate kind of implies a single government to rule over all Moslem lands (which would eventually expand to cover the whole world).  Since the Kurds badly want their own nation-state, I don't think that idea has a lot of appeal to them.

[Admiral Yi]

Kremlinolgists were concerned with figuring out who was winning and losing power struggles in Moscow.  Strategic moves were analyzed in the framework of power politics, not ideology.

Anyway, I found the article very convincing.  To start, it explains very neatly why foreigners have rushed to join ISIS, in a way they did not rush to join AQ.

[Razgovory]

Kremlinolgists were concerned with figuring out who was winning and losing power struggles in Moscow.  Strategic moves were analyzed in the framework of power politics, not ideology.

Anyway, I found the article very convincing.  To start, it explains very neatly why foreigners have rushed to join ISIS, in a way they did not rush to join AQ.

Nonsense.  Strategic moves were often analyzed in the framework of ideology.  That and reading tea leaves.  How many foreigners have rushed to join ISIS as opposed to AQ?

[Admiral Yi]

Really?  Who thought that missiles were placed in Cuba because Marx said they should be?

The estimates of foreigners going to fight for ISIS are in the 10s of thousands.

[Razgovory]

Really?  Who thought that missiles were placed in Cuba because Marx said they should be?

The estimates of foreigners going to fight for ISIS are in the 10s of thousands.

You do know there is more to communist ideology then just Marx, right?  And you have this "10s of thousands" from what source?  And how does it compared to AQ?  According to the CIA there is like around 30,000 ISIS fighters in the region.

[Admiral Yi]

You win.

[grumbler]

You win.

You just never learn, do you? 

The only way to win is to not play.

[Admiral Yi]

So ironic.

[Sheilbh]

Anyway, I found the article very convincing.  To start, it explains very neatly why foreigners have rushed to join ISIS, in a way they did not rush to join AQ.

On the other hand it's estimated that up to 10% of the various insurgent groups in Iraq were foreign fighters. There were 4-5000 foreign fighters in Bosnia too.

And it'd be useful to have a breakdown of when foreign fighters went. I'd read worried press reports about growing numbers of foreign fighters well before ISIS' rise.

[jimmy olsen]

Hic Haec Hoc Huius Huius Huius Huic Huic Huic....

Sounds like a cartoon bubble indicating a solid night of boozing. 

What did you think of the article?

I think he is fundamentally misunderstanding what we are up against.

My take on ISIS is that it is a 'true belief': that is, it is a form of absolutist totalitarianism/millenial movement based on the religious texts of Islam. It is characteristic of totalitarianism to be apparently devoted with absolute intensity on every jot and tittle of their constituent texts or ideology - one is reminded of Communists obsessed with various interpretations of communist texts.

It is however a mistake to think that the totalitarianism is completely a result of the texts, or that it is predictable what its future actions may be based on a reading of the texts. It is a mistake to believe that, because the believers in the cause are fanatics, they are incapable of change (often, change to our detriment) or of accepting apparently irreconcilable or contradictory beliefs.

To give an example - in the article, the author predicts that the ISIS problem could be solved by simply invading and occupying ISIS territory - because the notion of a Caliph (allegedly) requires territory for its existence: no territory, no Caliph, no more ISIS.

One way to un-cast the Islamic State's spell over its adherents would be to overpower it militarily and occupy the parts of Syria and Iraq now under caliphate rule. Al‑Qaeda is ineradicable because it can survive, cockroach-like, by going underground. The Islamic State cannot. If it loses its grip on its territory in Syria and Iraq, it will cease to be a caliphate. Caliphates cannot exist as underground movements, because territorial authority is a requirement: take away its command of territory, and all those oaths of allegiance are no longer binding.

This prediction is based on the conclusion that the ISIS believers will simply give up the ghost because they are incapable of re-interpreting their fanatical religious beliefs to suit changed conditions. To my mind, that assumption is most unsafe: fanatics are fully capable of adopting new and contradictory beliefs when conditions change.

The article says that in the minds of ISIS, al Baghdadi is the eighth of 12 legitimate Caliphs. Wouldn't they just get to work on raising number nine if number eight is defeated?

[Malthus]

The article says that in the minds of ISIS, al Baghdadi is the eighth of 12 legitimate Caliphs. Wouldn't they just get to work on raising number nine if number eight is defeated?

Well, according to the article, they would not be able to, because one has to control territory to be a legitimate Caliph.

[jimmy olsen]

The article says that in the minds of ISIS, al Baghdadi is the eighth of 12 legitimate Caliphs. Wouldn't they just get to work on raising number nine if number eight is defeated?

Well, according to the article, they would not be able to, because one has to control territory to be a legitimate Caliph.

They can work as an underground guerrilla organization with the goal of seizing territory and naming a new Caliph, just as ISIS did before seizing Raqqa and Mosul and crowning al Bagdadi.

[Malthus]

The article says that in the minds of ISIS, al Baghdadi is the eighth of 12 legitimate Caliphs. Wouldn't they just get to work on raising number nine if number eight is defeated?

Well, according to the article, they would not be able to, because one has to control territory to be a legitimate Caliph.

They can work as an underground guerrilla organization with the goal of seizing territory and naming a new Caliph, just as ISIS did before seizing Raqqa and Mosul.

Well, yes, I would agree. There are many possible reactions they could have.

Hence I conclude that simply dominating their territory, although of course a good idea if achievable, isn't going to make them declare themselves kaput because their inflexible dogmatism requires them to own territory.

If every religious nutter declared their nuttery over and done with when it ran into a factual contradiction, religious nutters would be much less of a problem. To give an easy example - any millenial movement that actually anticipated the "end times" happening soon, or on a defined date. Many of them are, unsurprisingly, still around.

[Berkut]

The point of denying them their territory is to make it so that they cannot claim that THEY are the caliphate, and hence attract a lot of people who otherwise would just look at them as yet another radical group trying to become legitimate.

Right now their success allows them to make that claim, and it is clearly having a very profound effect on their ability to recruit and maintain credibility.