The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[grumbler]

The real flaw in the IS is that the adherents interviewed in the story all agreed that Baghdadi is the true caliph and successor to Mohammed, except if he does something that they don't like, in which case he isn't even a Muslim.  Not the most firm basis on which to rule.  I think internal strife will collapse the IS before external military pressure does.  The latter is important to maintain, though, as it exacerbates internal strains.

[Malthus]

Hic Haec Hoc Huius Huius Huius Huic Huic Huic....

Sounds like a cartoon bubble indicating a solid night of boozing. 

What did you think of the article?

I think he is fundamentally misunderstanding what we are up against.

My take on ISIS is that it is a 'true belief': that is, it is a form of absolutist totalitarianism/millenial movement based on the religious texts of Islam. It is characteristic of totalitarianism to be apparently devoted with absolute intensity on every jot and tittle of their constituent texts or ideology - one is reminded of Communists obsessed with various interpretations of communist texts.

It is however a mistake to think that the totalitarianism is completely a result of the texts, or that it is predictable what its future actions may be based on a reading of the texts. It is a mistake to believe that, because the believers in the cause are fanatics, they are incapable of change (often, change to our detriment) or of accepting apparently irreconcilable or contradictory beliefs.

To give an example - in the article, the author predicts that the ISIS problem could be solved by simply invading and occupying ISIS territory - because the notion of a Caliph (allegedly) requires territory for its existence: no territory, no Caliph, no more ISIS.

One way to un-cast the Islamic State's spell over its adherents would be to overpower it militarily and occupy the parts of Syria and Iraq now under caliphate rule. Al‑Qaeda is ineradicable because it can survive, cockroach-like, by going underground. The Islamic State cannot. If it loses its grip on its territory in Syria and Iraq, it will cease to be a caliphate. Caliphates cannot exist as underground movements, because territorial authority is a requirement: take away its command of territory, and all those oaths of allegiance are no longer binding.

This prediction is based on the conclusion that the ISIS believers will simply give up the ghost because they are incapable of re-interpreting their fanatical religious beliefs to suit changed conditions. To my mind, that assumption is most unsafe: fanatics are fully capable of adopting new and contradictory beliefs when conditions change.

[grumbler]

This prediction is based on the conclusion that the ISIS believers will simply give up the ghost because they are incapable of re-interpreting their fanatical religious beliefs to suit changed conditions. To my mind, that assumption is most unsafe: fanatics are fully capable of adopting new and contradictory beliefs when conditions change.

I don't disagree with your overall assessment, but I think that you are misreading his statement.  He doesn't say that nothing will take the place of the IS, simply that the Islamic State cannot exist in exile.  It would be something else (or, more probably, many something-elses).

[Malthus]

This prediction is based on the conclusion that the ISIS believers will simply give up the ghost because they are incapable of re-interpreting their fanatical religious beliefs to suit changed conditions. To my mind, that assumption is most unsafe: fanatics are fully capable of adopting new and contradictory beliefs when conditions change.

I don't disagree with your overall assessment, but I think that you are misreading his statement.  He doesn't say that nothing will take the place of the IS, simply that the Islamic State cannot exist in exile.  It would be something else (or, more probably, many something-elses).

I agree he is saying ISIS cannot exist in exile (or rather, lacking a defined and controlled territory).

I don't think he is correct in this.

Various Muslim groups (admittedly Sh'ite) have, throughout history, adapted to having a "hidden Caliph" where their caliph has died, been murdered, or otherwise ceased to fulfil the requirements of being alive and holding territory, and continued to exist; I do not think it is safe to assume ISIS cannot do something like this.

Certainly, this would change the nature of the movement - but such change is not impossible.

[frunk]

I agree he is saying ISIS cannot exist in exile (or rather, lacking a defined and controlled territory).

I don't think he is correct in this.

Various Muslim groups (admittedly Sh'ite) have, throughout history, adapted to having a "hidden Caliph" where their caliph has died, been murdered, or otherwise ceased to fulfil the requirements of being alive and holding territory, and continued to exist; I do not think it is safe to assume ISIS cannot do something like this.

Certainly, this would change the nature of the movement - but such change is not impossible.

I think the central problem isn't so much if ISIS can claim to be a caliphate, but that people want a caliphate.  Even if ISIS is wiped out I don't think the desire amongst those who want one will be altered much.

[Jacob]

I agree he is saying ISIS cannot exist in exile (or rather, lacking a defined and controlled territory).

I don't think he is correct in this.

Various Muslim groups (admittedly Sh'ite) have, throughout history, adapted to having a "hidden Caliph" where their caliph has died, been murdered, or otherwise ceased to fulfil the requirements of being alive and holding territory, and continued to exist; I do not think it is safe to assume ISIS cannot do something like this.

Certainly, this would change the nature of the movement - but such change is not impossible.

I don't dispute the notion that the Islamic State guys might change their outlook and justifications if the facts on the ground change, but I don't think looking to the Shi'a for ideas on how Sunni extremists will adapt is going to be particularly instructive.

[Jacob]

I think the central problem isn't so much if ISIS can claim to be a caliphate, but that people want a caliphate.  Even if ISIS is wiped out I don't think the desire amongst those who want one will be altered much.

But isn't one of the main theses of the article that the particular characteristics of the Islamic State is that they're trying to fulfill the criteria for establishing (and maintaining) 'the Caliphate' according to a literalist but accessible definition? And that this gives us some insight into their behaviour?

Sure, if things change they might change their approach, but right now this seems pretty accurate from my (admittedly limited) perspective.

[CountDeMoney]

Sorry I only took latin for about a year so if there's any hidden meaning behind that - it is beyond me.

A loud sound.  Like a "boom".   

[dps]

I don't think anyone who went to an Anglo-Saxon school knows how to pronounce Latin correctly, in my experience.

Only public schoolboys would know anything at all about Latin.

We had Latin available in actual "public school".

We didn't in my HS.  Interestingly, though, when my mom was in HS, a year of Latin was still a requirement to graduate.  She and her best friend didn't want to take it, though, and somehow wrangled and exemption.  I think they basically told the principal that if he didn't sign an exemption for them, they were going to drop out of school anyway.

[CountDeMoney]

Well I think a large segment of the Western foreign 'fighters'(murders) thinking of heading to the ME, aren't the sort to be distracted by a nicely esoteric theological argument, they're going there for the FPS style murder and mayhem.

While I'm sure a significant number of them are, particularly the young and alienated types, are jonesing for deaf and distrucshun, I think it's selling the attractiveness of ISIS a little short.  The Islamic State is a living experiment and has become attractive to those literalists who want to see concept become reality--not much different than how the Bolsheviks attracted so many Westerners in the very early days of the revolution.

[11B4V]

Well I think a large segment of the Western foreign 'fighters'(murders) thinking of heading to the ME, aren't the sort to be distracted by a nicely esoteric theological argument, they're going there for the FPS style murder and mayhem.

They'll think that when a JDAM rocks their ass. But, but I didnt hear anything.

[citizen k]

http://news.yahoo.com/westerners-join-iraqi-christian-militia-fight-islamic-state-132145016.html

Westerners who have joined the Iraqi Christian militia Dwekh Nawsha to fight against Islamic State militants, take a photograph together at the office of the Assyrian political party in Dohuk, northern Iraq February 13, 2015. Thousands of foreigners have flocked to Iraq and Syria in the past two years, mostly to join Islamic State, but a handful of idealistic Westerners are enlisting as well, citing frustration their governments are not doing more to combat the ultra-radical Islamists or prevent the suffering of innocents. The militia they joined is called Dwekh Nawsha - meaning self-sacrifice in the ancient Aramaic language spoken by Christ and still used by Assyrian Christians, who consider themselves the indigenous people of Iraq. Picture taken February 13, 2015. REUTERS/Ari Jalal

A foreign female fighter who has joined the Iraqi Christian militia Dwekh Nawsha to fight against Islamic State militants sits at the office of the Assyrian political party in Dohuk, northern Iraq February 13, 2015. The only foreign woman in Dwekh Nawsha's ranks said she had been inspired by the role of women in the lightly armed Kurdish YPG militia, but identified more closely with the "traditional" values of the Christian militia. Thousands of foreigners have flocked to Iraq and Syria in the past two years, mostly to join Islamic State, but a handful of idealistic Westerners are enlisting as well, citing frustration their governments are not doing more to combat the ultra-radical Islamists or prevent the suffering of innocents. The militia they joined is called Dwekh Nawsha - meaning self-sacrifice in the ancient Aramaic language spoken by Christ and still used by Assyrian Christians, who consider themselves the indigenous people of Iraq. Picture taken February 13, 2015. REUTERS/Ari Jalal

[11B4V]

she looks hot....

[MadImmortalMan]

[CountDeMoney]

Kittens and Nutella? COLOR ME SOLD